Goldman Just Said What the Market Isn’t Ready to Admit About AI — But They Missed One Explosive Detail

Shernice軒嬣 2000
05-02



Everyone is still chasing chips like it’s 2024.

But the real trade for 2026? It’s shifting—fast.

Goldman Sachs’ Toshiya Hari just made a call most people will dismiss:

👉 Overweight hyperscalers, underweight semiconductors.

Sounds wrong… until you understand the setup.

The Market Is Pricing AI Backwards

Chips already had their run

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up ~150%

Trading at premium valuations

Meanwhile:

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  

$Alphabet(GOOG)$  

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  

$Oracle(ORCL)$  

…are lagging because of one thing:

👉 They’re spending too much on AI.

But that’s exactly the opportunity.

The Asymmetry Nobody Sees

👉 Hyperscalers = priced for doubt

👉 Semiconductors = priced for perfection

That’s not balance.

That’s mispricing.

Now Here’s the Part the Market Is Underestimating: ORACLE

Everyone lumps hyperscalers together.

That’s a mistake.

Oracle is playing a different game:

👉 It’s using ~5x leverage to go all-in on AI infrastructure

That’s dangerous…

But also incredibly powerful.

Why This Changes Everything

If Oracle fails to reach positive cash flow:

👉 The downside is obvious (debt + pressure)

But if Oracle flips cash flow positive:

👉 That 5x leverage becomes a return amplifier

This is not linear upside.

This is convex payoff.

Translation (Simple)

Most companies:

Spend $1 → earn $1.20

Oracle (leveraged AI bet):

Spend $1 → if it works → earn multiples of that return

My Target Framework (Not Consensus)

If Oracle successfully crosses into sustainable AI-driven cash flow:

👉 Base case: $250–$350

👉 Bull case (AI infra dominance + operating leverage): $500+

Because at that point, the market stops asking:

“Can they afford AI?”

And starts asking:

“How big can this cash machine get?”

The Real 2026 Battlefield

We are entering the harshest phase of the AI cycle:

Not models

Not GPUs

Not hype

👉 Cash flow conversion

Capex is heading toward $700B.

If that doesn’t turn into real money:

Margins get crushed

Narratives collapse

Valuations reset

Final Thought

Goldman is right about the direction.

But the real alpha is in who survives the transition.

Semis won Phase 1.

Hyperscalers might win Phase 2.

But within hyperscalers?

👉 The biggest upside may come from the one taking the biggest risk.

And right now…

That’s Oracle.

@TigerObserver  @TigerPM  @Daily_Discussion  @MillionaireTiger  @TigerStars  

Modified in.05-02
Oracle Drops 4%: Does OpenAI's Miss Threaten Cloud Contract Delivery?
Oracle declined 4.05% today, with the primary catalyst being OpenAI's reported miss on both internal revenue and user growth targets, raising market concerns over the reliability of OpenAI's large pre-signed cloud commitments on Oracle's platform. Customer concentration risk has moved to center stage, with institutional analysts noting that Oracle's targeted bet on AI cloud infrastructure is triggering a short-term repricing of its concentration premium. If OpenAI demand accelerates in the second half, can Oracle's cloud expansion deliver as planned?
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Comments

  • Ah_Meng
    05-02
    Ah_Meng
    You are absolutely correct about this… I am living in fossil past, so I am always concerned about cost. $Oracle(ORCL)$ must run fast enough before the economy collapses. I sense a transfer of assets between some of the haves and have nots. With increased borrowing everywhere, when the economy goes under, debts will ballooned into demons, AI will still go on, but the players would be different. The pain of the Dot com bust (when you were still a toddler?) still hurts for those who experienced it…
    • Shernice軒嬣 2000: 
      To sustain this explosion, we need serious AI infrastructure. That’s where Oracle comes in — positioned to become a true cash-generating machine as demand for compute reaches insane levels.
    • Shernice軒嬣 2000: 
      Sharing a post  on how he is using tokens to massively boost productivity — and this group is growing fast.
      As usage scales across commercial and personal levels, computational demand is going parabolic. This isn’t just hype anymore — it’s a structural shift.
    • Shernice軒嬣 2000ReplyShernice軒嬣 2000: 
      I’ve read about the dot-com bust. AI only emerged a few years ago, and we may be at a similar early-stage inflection point—where experience from the dot-com era could help in identifying the next dominant stocks.
  • Ah_Meng
    05-02
    Ah_Meng
    The excitement around AI just feels so familiar to the dot com period… before its bursting…
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