Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble
Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.
$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$
Crude oil is ruthlessly repricing this geopolitical crisis
The market's crucial reference point and mediator remains the price of crude oil. As previously mentioned, the $80 mark has now become a critical fortress for the bulls, and last week's massive lower shadow triggered perfectly right ahead of this key zone. The longer high oil prices persist, the greater their destructive power over risk assets. Following last week's geopolitical shifts, oil ultimately surged back to the $100 mark, highlighting investors' deep concerns about an escalating situation.
If oil bulls push further to breach the previous high of $119, it would not only hint at the possibility of oil challenging or breaking historical records, but also confirm that the Middle East conflict will expand and enter a prolonged cycle. Consequently, other risk assets will face the pressure of continued heavy sell-offs. While this would also be a massive blow to Trump, how to end this conflict is clearly no longer solely up to him. Because he was about a week late in announcing his strategic deterrents, Iran got a taste of the leverage that comes with controlling the Strait of Hormuz, ultimately leading to the relative uncontrollability we see today.
$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2605(MCLmain)$ $原油ETF-PowerShares(DBO)$
Gold's safe-haven appeal returns alongside a crucial confirmation signal from silver
On the other hand, although gold has suffered a severe downtrend recently and become a casualty of war-related narratives, we still need to watch for potential twists. The old logic of "buying gold in times of chaos" isn't always foolproof, but it holds strong validity right now. Last week's rebound from relatively low levels was substantial, meaning we cannot rule out the possibility that under certain catalysts, gold will once again attract safe-haven capital.
Technically speaking, while the long-term watershed is far away near 3,500, as long as the short-term low of 4,100 survives the tests of this week and next, there is a strong structural setup for a rebound. The weekly gap near 5,061 presents a real possibility of being filled. Additionally, it’s worth using silver's performance as a reference: generally, at a true short-term bottom, both gold and silver should reject new lows. If one asset makes a new low, it’s highly likely the other will eventually follow suit and drop.
$黄金主连 2606(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2606(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2606(1OZmain)$ $迷你黄金主连 2606(QOmain)$ $美元黄金主连 2604(GDUmain)$ $白银主连 2605(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2605(QImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $白银2605(SI2605)$
Watching the weekend oil scenarios with our weekly strategy in place
From a news-driven perspective, as long as a ground war does not erupt by early next week, panic will relatively ease, and oil prices should consolidate below $100. A peace agreement would naturally cause oil to plunge and other assets to rally, though this remains highly difficult right now. Only a definitive drop below $80 or $76 would truly put this crisis to rest. In the event of an all-out war, investors will simply have to brace for impact.
For this week's trading strategy, we went long on a half-position of GBP/USD at the 1.3310/20 level. Although the pair rebounded during the week, it pulled back from its highs, indicating ongoing friction between bulls and bears. The remaining half of the long orders is set at 1.3195. The stop-loss is strictly placed at 1.3000, with upside targets set at 1.3700 and 1.4270.
Given the high probability of opening gaps caused by weekend news, we are not setting any new pending orders for now. Please be extremely careful with this specific risk.
Comments