Trump Signals "Winding Down" of Iran Conflict; Markets Eye Potential Monday Recovery

​WASHINGTON (March 21, 2026) — Global financial markets are bracing for a high-stakes Monday opening following a series of late-week pronouncements from President Donald J. Trump suggesting that major U.S. military objectives in the three-week-old conflict with Iran are nearly complete.  

What just happened?

At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.

Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.

Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.

Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.

By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.

Markets are now closed until Monday.

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​Market Sentiment: Relief or Skepticism?

​The news comes as a potential lifeline for investors after a brutal Friday session where the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% and Brent crude surged to $112.19.

​Analysts are divided on whether Monday will see a "relief rally":

​The Bull Case: If traders believe the "winding down" rhetoric, oil prices could plunge as the "war premium" evaporates. This would likely trigger a massive rebound in tech and consumer discretionary stocks, which have been battered by inflation fears.

​The Bear Case: Skeptics point to the White House's simultaneous deployment of 2,500 additional Marines to the region. Furthermore, Trump explicitly ruled out a formal ceasefire, stating, "You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side."  

​Bond Market Watch

​The U.S. bond market remains the most sensitive indicator. Friday saw the 10-year Treasury yield spike to 4.39%, its highest level in nearly a year. A de-escalation could pull yields back down, easing the pressure on mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs.  

​What we're looking for on Monday is a 'gap down' in oil prices. If Brent drops back toward $90, the equity market could erase all of Friday’s losses in a single session. But if the Strait remains blocked despite the rhetoric, the sell-off could resume with a vengeance.

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