$SPY + $VIX: 6-Step Exit Framework Before Entry

Before every trade, I do a "thesis invalidation" writeup.

Basically a breakdown of where & why I would exit if wrong.

Here's what it looks like (6 parts):

1) technical...if the stock [blank], I'm out:

- breaks a key level

- loses prior breakout level

- hits my stop

- fails to hold higher low structure

- re-enters prior range (failed breakout)

- stock loses relative strength vs $spy

2) fundamental...if the stock's [blank], I'm out:

- narrative breaks (no longer strong "story”)

- sector / theme loses momentum

- insiders start selling aggressively

- macro shifts directly hurt the business

- leadership starts showing cracks

3) thesis…if the [blank], I’m out:

- reason I entered changes

- news/narrative shifts

- earnings/catalyst invalidates original idea

- leaders break down

4) risk…if my [blank], I’m out:

- stoploss is hit

- position size no longer makes sense

- i'm emotionally attached / forcing

- convincing myself to stay in

5) time...if it [blank], I’m out:

- takes too long (this is relative/discretionary)

- opportunity cost becomes too high

- stalls at same level repeatedly

- no move within predetermined timeframe

6) market environment...if [blank], I’m out:

- breadth collapses

- macro event risk increases (war, cpi, geopolitics)

- no follow through

- relative weakness, $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ over $20

- choppy & headline-driven whipsaw

- market stops rewarding good setups

You get paid for being aligned with price, volume, trend, market environment, and your own mental state.

Bookmark this + ask yourself before positioning.

The “magic number” I’m watching...

120M+ shares on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ .

Every recent spike above that volume level has marked the local low...followed by a multi-day move higher.

Volume precedes price, watch 120M+ volume on $SPY as a reversal trigger.

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