Reward 500 Tiger-coinsYesterday, the market endured a violent V-shaped reversal. Oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ surged at the open, dragging $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down as much as 1%.
The tide turned after Trump stated the war would "end very soon," coupled with reports that Israel, at Trump’s request, would suspend further strikes on Iranian gas fields. As oil retreated, equities clawed back most losses, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down a modest 0.27%.
Retail Sentiment is Turning Cold
The mood among U.S. retail investors is cooling significantly, with the Fear & Greed Index slipping back into "Extreme Fear."
According to the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII):
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Bearish Sentiment: Jumped from 46.4% last week to 52%, hitting its highest level since May last year.
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Bullish Sentiment: Slipped from 31.9% to 30.4%, its lowest point since last September.
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Neutral Sentiment: Stands at a mere 17.6%, also at the lower end of the historical range. Current market sentiment has moved beyond "caution" and is now leaning decisively toward pessimism.
The "Fed Put" is Dead: Can Trump Still Save the Market?
As asset prices tumbled this week, the Federal Reserve offered no olive branch. The latest "Dot Plot" shows most officials still expect only one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, with the timing remaining a mystery. Compared to December, the number of hawks supporting zero cuts this year has increased. Market bets for two or three cuts have evaporated, narrowing down to a single cut at most for 2026.
Key Fed Takeaways:
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Inflation Forecast Hiked: The Fed raised its 2026 median core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, acknowledging that price pressures remain significantly above the 2% target.
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Powell’s "Hard Truth": Jerome Powell stated that the impact of the US-Iran conflict remains unclear and progress on cooling inflation is "not as significant as previously hoped." He emphasized that if oil price shocks bleed into core inflation and no significant progress is seen, "we will not cut rates."
💬 Strategic Discussion
Is this week’s selloff a "clearing of the decks" (bad news priced in) or the start of a deeper slide?
1. Can S&P 500 safegaurd 6500 Suppor?
2. Retail Pessimism — Contra-Indicator or Warning? Historically, extreme retail pessimism can be a contrarian "buy" signal.
3. How do you view this shift?
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A. Buy the Dip: The 52% bearish reading suggests we are near a sentiment bottom; Trump’s intervention will eventually stabilize oil.
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B. Follow the Trend: The Fed has turned its back on the market. Without a rate cut or a real end to the war, 6500 is a "trap."
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Comments
Can S&P 500 safegaurd 6500 Support?
2. Retail Pessimism — Contra-Indicator or Warning? Historically, extreme retail pessimism can be a contrarian "buy" signal.
3. How do you view this shift?
A. Buy the Dip: The 52% bearish reading suggests we are near a sentiment bottom; Trump’s intervention will eventually stabilize oil.
B. Follow the Trend: The Fed has turned its back on the market. Without a rate cut or a real end to the war, 6500 is a "trap."
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
The AAII data showing over 50% bearish is historically contrarian and can signal a near-term bottom. But I’m cautious—oil-driven inflation and a hawkish Fed are the bigger constraints, and they could keep pressure on valuations and limit upside. In that context, 6500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ may act more like resistance than strong support.
Overall, I’m not aggressively buying the dip. I see this as a tradeable bounce in a volatile environment rather than a confirmed bottom. I’d prefer to scale in selectively and wait for clearer signals from oil or the Fed before taking stronger positions.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
Buy the Dip or Follow the Trend?
With 52% of investors now bearish, we are in "Extreme Fear" territory. Warren Buffett's advice to be greedy when others are fearful suggests it is a good time to go bargain hunting.
However with the Fed signalling a hawkish hold due to war driven inflation, the trend is currently your enemy until a policy pivot arrives.
My Strategy? I will continue to dollar cost average into $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ & $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ because markets may panic but over the long term they always climb higher.
That is the rhythm of compounding, the heartbeat of patience & the reward for staying calm when everyone is dramatic.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
As of March 20, 2026, the S&P 500 is facing a critical technical breakdown, having closed at 6,606.49—its first dip below the 200-day moving average since May 2023. The 6,500 level is now the "line in the sand" for bulls.
Can S&P 500 Safeguard 6,500 Support?
Immediate Risk: Analysts warn that the loss of the 200-day average (currently around 6,630) often triggers further liquidation.
The 6,500 Floor: This level represents a liquidity zone and the November 2025 low.
The "Trap" Risk: With over 80% of tech and discretionary stocks already in downtrends, the index's internal structure is severely weakened, increasing the likelihood that 6,500 could be a temporary pause rather than a hard bottom.
The 52% bearish reading is a powerful contrarian signal, but the "trap" at 6,500 remains real as long as the oil shock persists. Trump’s interventions (like the Jones Act waiver) are currently viewed by the market as "Band-Aids" rather than structural solutions.
I’m neutral at this point as I would prefer more price action before deciding. Although prices have slipped, it has not reached a compelling buy as it came down from relative highs. The Fed is not in a rush to rescue the market as inflation is expected to rise with the higher oil prices that influence not just energy but also other industries like the fertilisers.
I would prefer to keep my dry powder for greater discounts before buying for investment. I have however done a bit of swing trading for some quick profits.