This episode has many capitulation characteristics, but it is not yet a high-confidence macro bottom.

What argues for a tradable bounce.

The scale and speed of liquidations, $1.7B wiped out in a day with hundreds of thousands of forced exits, is typical of late-stage deleveraging. When leverage is flushed this aggressively, short-term selling pressure often exhausts itself. The rebound toward the mid-$60k range fits a mechanical reset narrative rather than renewed speculation. From a tactical perspective, this increases the odds of a counter-trend rally over days to a few weeks.

What argues against a durable bottom.

This was not an idiosyncratic crypto shock. It coincided with broad risk aversion across equities, rates, and commodities. In macro-driven drawdowns, Bitcoin rarely bottoms before financial conditions stabilise. If real yields remain firm, liquidity tight, or equities fail to hold their rebound, crypto typically revisits or marginally breaks prior lows. In that context, a retest of the low-$60k area, or even a brief undershoot, would not be unusual.

How to frame it.

Short term: conditions support a tradable relief rally after forced selling.

Medium term: unless macro stress eases, the broader downtrend risk remains intact.

Key tell going forward.

If Bitcoin can hold higher lows on reduced leverage while equities stabilise, that would strengthen the bottoming case. Failure to do so would suggest this was merely a pause in a macro-led risk unwind, not the end of it.

In short, this looks like capitulation for leverage, not yet capitulation for the cycle.