Is a sell now and definite buy back after SpaceX goes Public!
SpaceX is gg public, it will definitely move Rocket Lab (RKLB) — but not in a simple “good or bad way. Think short-term noise, long-term separation. So best to sell it, takes profit and buy it back against after Space X goes public and settle down.
Short term: pressure + comparison shock
This is where RKLB can get hit.
Why:
SpaceX IPO would suck up massive capital and attention
Institutions that wanted SpaceX exposure may rotate out of RKLB
Media will frame Rocket Lab as “mini SpaceX” (not fair, but it’ll happen)
Likely effects: (We r seeing it now!)
Temporary sell-off or underperformance
Valuation compression due to side-by-side comparisons
RKLB judged against SpaceX metrics it cannot match (yet)
This is the danger zone — especially if the IPO hype is extreme.
Long term: Rocket Lab stops being “mini SpaceX”
This is the real thesis.
Rocket Lab is not trying to be SpaceX anymore.
Where Rocket Lab differentiates
Small & medium launch (Electron / Neutron ≠ Falcon)
Space systems (satellites, components, spacecraft)
Vertically integrated but capital-lighter
🌍 Strong government & defense customers outside SpaceX's orbit
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