$IREN Earnings: 5 Major Catalysts That Could Move the Stock

$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ reports earnings on Thursday!

Here are 5️⃣ catalysts to watch!

1/ New Hyperscaller Deals

$IREN announced the $9.7B $Microsoft(MSFT)$ deal on November 3, 2025, sending the stock up over 20%.

This was 4 months ago, and in this time, the company has made meaningful progress towards building additional capacity.

A new hyperscaler deal is expected to be announced at any moment and would be a huge catalyst for the stock. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$

2/ Construction Update

The Childress Data Center has a target capacity of 750MW, and the first phase will go to $MSFT in 2026. Any delays could push $MSFT cashflow forward, and the stock would fall.

The Sweetwater Hub has a target capacity of 2 GW. The first phase is scheduled to be energised in April of 2026, and the second phase for late 2027. Updates on the progress is welcomed, and delays would punish the stock.

3/ New Data Center Locations

$IREN has said that they have a 3GW secured power and "multi-GW development pipeline".

If $IREN announces an acquisition of a new location from its "multi-GW development pipeline" the stock will moon.

4/ Analysts Estimates

Here is what analysts are expecting for Q4 2025:

- Revenue $227M +96% 🟢

- EBITDA $99M +11,928% 🟢

- EBIT -$12.5M -1,614% 🔴

- Depreciation $93M +32,301% 🔴

- Net Income -$44M -334% 🔴

- EPS -$0.09 -12% 🔴

- FCF -$485M -96% 🔴

Larger-than-expected losses could be viewed negatively by the market.

5/ Capex Update

$IREN just raised billions in convertible notes to fund Capex.

Analysts expect capex:

- $5.8B for 2026

- $2.9B for 2027

- $3.8B for 2028

These estimates are below what I expect $IREN needs to spend to bring their pipeline online.

Likely, they will release new guidance for 2026 or 2027.

If too high, the stock could suffer.

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