COIN 4Q25 Preview: PT Cut to $220! Is Crypto Cycle Stalling?🚨

👋 Hey Tigers!

The highly anticipated 4Q earnings preview for $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ is here! 🚀

Current market vibes: Buy the dip or wait on the sidelines? 🤔 Here is the latest take from the Tiger Research Team: 👉 Maintain HOLD rating 👉 Price Target lowered to $220 (previously $300) 📉

While they still believe in COIN’s "Everything Exchange" vision ✨ , the current crypto cycle headwinds are blowing strong. Spot volumes are slipping, and prices are soft—so where exactly is the bottom? ⏳

Tiger Research Team crunched the numbers on the Data, the Cycle, and the Valuation for you.

Packed with insights—bookmark this now before reading! 👇

1. 4Q25 Data Check: A Tale of Two Markets 📉🚀

The Tiger Research Team notes a divergence between Coinbase's spot market struggles and its derivatives success.

The Headwinds (Spot Trading):

• Volume Decline: Coinbase’s spot trading volume fell 11% q/q in 4Q. This was steeper than the global spot crypto trading volume decline of 7%.

• Market Share: Consequently, Coinbase saw a modest market-share decline to 5.1% (down from 5.3% in 3Q).

The Bright Spot (Derivatives):

• Offsetting the spot market softness, the Coinbase International Exchange is gaining significant traction.

• Derivatives volume surged 24% q/q to $598bn in 4Q, validating the company's strategy to diversify beyond simple spot trading.

2. The Financials: Estimates Trimmed ✂️

Reflecting the weaker crypto price environment, the team has adjusted its 4Q forecasts downward:

• Revenue: They reduced the 4Q total revenue estimate by 2%. This includes a 2% cut to subscription and services revenue, driven by lower ETH and SOL prices impacting blockchain rewards.

• EBITDA: The lower revenue yields a 3% reduction in our adjusted EBITDA forecast.

• 2026 Outlook: The Research Team has also slightly decreased the 2026 full-year revenue estimate by 1%.

3. Cycle Outlook: Waiting for the Trough 🔮

Why the cautious stance? The team’s analysis suggests the market is following historical patterns.

• The 4-Year Cycle: BTC’s recent price action appears consistent with its historical four-year cycle, suggesting we are in a period of consolidation.

• 2H Trough Risk: If historical rhythms hold, BTC prices could remain under pressure and potentially trough in the second half of 2026.

• Impact: This would weigh on both spot trading volumes and stablecoin activity, limiting near-term upside despite Coinbase's product expansion into areas like U.S. equities.

4. Valuation & Risks ⚖️

Valuation: The new price target of $220 implies a valuation of 17.1x 2026E EBITDA, which is largely in line with exchange and fintech peers.

Key Risks:

• Crypto Prices: Revenue remains highly correlated with crypto asset prices, which are outside the company's control.

• Competition: The landscape is unstable; Coinbase must invest heavily to defend against new entrants and innovations.

• Regulatory: Ongoing uncertainty regarding AML and the classification of assets remains a key variable.

📝 Summary

• Tiger Research remains constructive on Coinbase’s long-term "Everything Exchange" strategy.

• However, the near-term risk-reward argues for patience. With the potential for a cycle trough in 2H 2026 and current pressure on spot volumes, the team maintains a HOLD rating until a clearer catalyst emerges.

🐯 Questions for Tigers

• Cycle Timing: Do you agree with the historical "4-year cycle" view that the market will trough in late 2026, or is institutional adoption changing the rules?

• Derivatives Dominance: Can Coinbase's growth in International Derivatives eventually overshadow its reliance on spot trading fees?

• Entry Point: With the PT lowered to $220, what price level are you watching to start accumulating COIN?

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