Early Saturday morning, the Japanese yen suddenly accelerated higher, with USD/JPY briefly approaching 155.
This was not an ordinary FX fluctuation.
The real signal was this:
the U.S. Federal Reserve effectively conducted a rate check on behalf of Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF).
The Fed directly called major banks to ask for price quotes—an action that is far from routine.
Historically, this only happens in two situations:
either intervention is being prepared,
or exchange-rate volatility is approaching a “loss-of-control” threshold.
What does this imply?
It means this yen move was not driven by sentiment—it was taken seriously by central banks.
Let’s rewind to intraday trading on Friday and look at the synchronized moves across three markets:
SPY, USD/JPY, and Nikkei futures.
Cyan: USD/JPY
Blue: Nikkei futures
Red: SPY
Around midnight early Saturday, the yen surged sharply.
Almost simultaneously, Nikkei futures dropped quickly.
SPY reacted more slowly—about a 30-minute lag—but the direction was nearly identical.
This detail matters a lot.
It once again confirms an old market truth:
USD/JPY is not just an FX pair—it’s a transmitter of risk sentiment.
During U.S. trading hours, Nikkei futures had already fallen meaningfully.
Most people simply weren’t watching that window.
The key issue is timing.
The yen strengthened during Japan’s early Saturday hours,
but the real pricing hasn’t happened yet.
When Japan opens on Monday, the market will be facing an already-strengthened yen.
Under those conditions, a gap-down open for the Nikkei is close to a certainty.
If, during Monday’s Asian session, JPY strengthens further and USD/JPY breaks below 155,
the Nikkei’s decline could easily widen to 2%–3%.
And once panic appears in Asia,
sentiment can continue to spread to Europe and the U.S. through futures markets.
This is not speculation—it’s a path that has played out many times before.
So the next step is not to rush into short positions,
but to first examine the structure of your own portfolio.
Especially stocks with high beta, strong convexity, and heavy reliance on arbitrage capital—
when risk appetite retreats, these are often the first areas where liquidity is pulled.
I’m not writing this to create panic,
and I’m not encouraging anyone to bet on direction.
I have only one objective:
to clearly lay out the risks and logic before the event fully unfolds.
Whether to respond, and how to respond,
is a decision everyone can make for themselves.
But at the very least,
you shouldn’t be caught off guard and taking hits simply because you didn’t understand what was happening.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerObserver
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