Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?

Tiger_comments
01-21
Reward Tiger-CoinsReward 500 Tiger-coins

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ is no longer just a slow-moving safe-haven asset—its price action is starting to look like a high-growth tech stock, with explosive momentum. While markets are still debating AI commercialization, gold has already surged past $4,800 in January, leaving many Wall Street banks’ annual forecasts far behind. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$

1) Wall Street’s “Collective Miss”: A Gold Rally They Can’t Catch

Looking back at last year, an interesting pattern emerged: gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets just to chase the trend. As we enter 2026, the same movie seems to be playing again.

Morgan Stanley previously expected gold to reach $4,800 by year-end, yet the market “hit” that target before January even ended. This collective lag in expectations suggests a deeper repricing may be underway—driven by global central-bank de-dollarization and renewed safe-haven demand.

2) Step-Ladder Targets: When Technicals and Institutional Forecasts Align

Combining the current Elliott Wave structure with the latest institutional consensus, here’s a roadmap:

Short-term target: $5,000 (a psychological line in sight)

Gold is only about 2.3% away from this level. HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect gold to challenge this key psychological mark in the near term. If gold can hold above $5,000, it would effectively enter a “low-resistance zone.”

Mid-term target: $5,250–$5,300 (sub-wave 5 acceleration)

This range is a key resistance zone based on Fibonacci extensions. BofA and JPM have moved quickly to keep up with the market, lifting their 2026 targets into this band. It also matches the “secondary Wave 5 within Wave 3” type of breakout behavior we’re observing.

Long-term target: $5,900–$6,000 (late-stage major Wave 5)

This is the most aggressive endpoint projection for the current bull cycle. More bullish houses such as Yardeni Research and Jefferies argue that under extreme inflation pressure or a further escalation in geopolitics, a major Wave 5 sprint could point directly toward $6,000 as early as this year.

3) When Will the Party End?

In commodities, Wave 5 is often the most explosive phase—powered by fundamentals and FOMO. But investors should watch for two classic “end-of-run” signals:

  • Exhaustion gap / blow-off behavior: a near-vertical push toward $6,000 alongside a sharp surge in volume—often signaling buyer fatigue.

  • Real rates turning higher: if inflation data falls faster than expected and real yields spike, the rising opportunity cost of holding gold can become a major headwind. Gold may retreat to $4200-4400 during major wave 4.

Community Discussion

  1. If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?

  2. Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?

Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!

Gold Rebounds Strongly! Is the Bull Market Back on Track?
After two days of sharp selloffs, gold and silver staged a strong rebound. Spot gold climbed back above $4,800/oz, rising more than 3% intraday, while silver surged 5% to reclaim the $83 level. The bounce comes amid extreme volatility across risk assets, as investors reassess positioning after forced liquidations and margin stress earlier in the week. Is this rebound signaling a renewed rally? Or are gold and silver still vulnerable to further volatility ahead?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Reward expired
Due to insufficient number of valid participants, 500Tiger coins have been refunded to the initiator
Deadline to 02/03 10:38
Reward-post

Comments

  • icycrystal
    01-21
    icycrystal
    @Aqa @koolgal @rL @HelenJanet @LMSunshine @Shyon @nomadic_m @SPACE ROCKET @Barcode @GoodLife99 @HelenJanet @Universe宇宙

    If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?


    Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?


    Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!

  • Shyon
    01-22
    Shyon
    To me, gold is no longer behaving like a slow defensive asset but more like a momentum trade driven by structural forces. When prices run past major banks’ yearly targets before January ends, it points to deeper repricing, supported by central-bank buying, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risk rather than short-term fear.

    If gold reaches $5,000 before February, I expect a pullback, but likely a shallow and healthy one. A pause toward the $4,700–$4,800 zone would help reset momentum, while a straight vertical surge toward $5,900 would feel more like late-stage exhaustion.

    Between JPM and Yardeni, I lean toward JPM’s steady outlook in the near term, while viewing Yardeni’s $6,000 call as a tail-risk scenario. For me, $5,000 is a checkpoint, $5,250–$5,300 is the volatility zone, and $6,000 requires clear euphoria and added macro stress.

    @TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments

  • icycrystal
    01-21
    icycrystal
    If gold hits $5,000 before February, analysts expect a high probability of a healthy pullback or period of consolidation, followed by a potential launch toward the next major psychological targets. The consensus views JPMorgan's "steady" target as more aligned with overall market expectations than Yardeni's aggressive call, though both are considered plausible long-term scenarios.

    I would most probably go with the the more measured, consensus-oriented JPM target for the 2026 timeline. A move to $5,000 would likely be met with a corrective phase, and reaching Yardeni's $6,000 target this year would require an acceleration of the already high risk aversion and extreme market conditions.

    • koolgal: 
      Great insights 🥰🥰🥰
  • koolgal
    01-22
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟If Gold really decides to sprint to USD 5000 before February, I am not sure whether to expect a healthy pullback or whether it will go straight up to USD 5900.  It all depends on so many factors such as Trump's stance on Greenland and his relationship with the EU countries.

    But one thing I know for sure is that Gold is regarded as a safe haven asset in a world fraught with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.

    So it makes perfect sense to invest in a Gold ETF such as $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ as a counterbalance against the volatility in the markets.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

  • BTS
    01-26
    BTS
    黄金最近一直在抛物线运行，人们普遍猜测将向5000美元甚至6000美元移动...

    如果经济不确定性、通胀和地缘政治紧张局势继续推动需求，金价可能达到5000美元；然而，快速上涨可能会面临阻力，需要强劲的动力，如果金价在2月之前触及5,000美元，技术设置可能会引发回调，而不是直接飙升至5,900美元，因为抛物线走势通常需要盘整和获利了结

    如果将反弹视为当前经济趋势和现实价格变动的反映，那么摩根大通(JPM)对5,055美元目标的信心是合乎逻辑的；相反，Yardeni的6000美元预测取决于极端的市场波动或系统性的地缘政治转变将黄金推向新的高度

    黄金可能测试5000美元水平；然而，超越它并直奔6,000美元可能需要更强的催化剂来推动这种走势

  • Lanceljx
    01-22
    Lanceljx
    如果金价在2月前触及5000美元，基本情况首先是健康的回调/盘整。快速运行通常会引发获利回吐、CTA再平衡和“冒险”轮换。正常预计回调5-10%；如果定位拥挤，则为10-15%。直接升至5,900美元需要新的冲击（地缘政治升级、美联储信誉受到打击、美元信心动摇）。赔率：先回调~70%，直发~30%。

    目标：摩根大通5,055美元是更可靠的基本情况锚。如果保单波动性和风险溢价保持在较高水平，Yardeni 6,000美元是一个有效的看涨情景。使用JPM进行修剪，Yardeni作为拉伸向上。

Leave a comment
36
22