Lanceljx
01-13 17:57

$Apple(AAPL)$  Apple: Has the stock formed a durable bottom?

After six consecutive weekly declines, Apple is showing early stabilisation signals, but not yet a confirmed durable bottom.

Why a short-term bottom is plausible

Positioning reset: Sentiment and positioning have materially de-risked. Many fast-money sellers are already out.

Fundamental floor: Services margins, buybacks, and cash flow remain intact, limiting downside compared with prior hardware-led drawdowns.

Smartphone leadership regained: Shipment leadership supports revenue stability, even if unit growth remains modest.

Why patience may still be required

Earnings revisions have not turned: A durable bottom typically coincides with stabilising or rising forward EPS.

AI monetisation remains narrative-heavy: Unlike peers, Apple’s AI impact is still more roadmap than revenue.

Macro sensitivity: Any renewed pressure on long-end yields or consumer demand could delay re-rating.

At this stage, Apple appears closer to a technical base than a confirmed cyclical bottom. A sustained move would require follow-through on volume and guidance clarity.

Do leadership and AI justify Wedbush’s 35% upside?

**Wedbush Securities’s call is ambitious but not implausible, contingent on execution.

What supports the upside

Installed base leverage

Smartphone leadership reinforces Apple’s ecosystem advantage, supporting Services growth and pricing power.

On-device AI differentiation

Privacy-first, edge-based AI could improve user retention and drive upgrade cycles, even without headline-grabbing models.

Capital returns

Buybacks meaningfully enhance EPS, especially after valuation compression.

What caps the upside

AI must translate into tangible consumer use cases, not just features.

Hardware growth remains mature; a full re-rating requires confidence in incremental ARPU, not unit volume.

Valuation expansion will lag peers unless AI-driven revenue visibility improves.

Bottom line

Apple is likely past peak pessimism, but confirmation of a durable bottom still requires earnings and guidance support. Wedbush’s 35% upside case is achievable, but it depends less on smartphone leadership alone and more on whether Apple can convincingly monetise AI within its ecosystem in 2025–2026.

With Wedbush Calling 35% Upside, Has Apple’s Risk-Reward Shifted?
Apple has reclaimed the No.1 spot in global smartphone shipments, even as its stock has fallen for six consecutive weeks. Despite the drawdown, Wedbush Securities remains bullish, citing four major tailwinds and projecting up to 35% upside this year. Whether the stock has already bottomed—or if patience is still needed before a re-rating begins. After six straight weeks of losses, is Apple finally forming a durable bottom? Do smartphone leadership and AI expectations justify Wedbush’s 35% upside call?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment