MSTR Undervalued or NOT? Ray Dalio Said Crypto Policy Window May Be Less Than One Year

Tiger_comments
01-09
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Global index provider MSCI announced it will maintain its current treatment of so-called “crypto treasury companies.” This means firms like $Strategy(MSTR)$ — which hold Bitcoin as a core asset — are not being removed from major indexes, for now.

On the news, MSTR rebounded 6% this week. Some investors now argue: MSTR may already be near its downside floor.

However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that crypto is being repriced by U.S. political cycles.

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Is Crypto Running Out of Time?

2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 79% probability that Democrats regain the House in 2026

If that happens, today’s pro-crypto policy momentum could fade quickly.

The most important variable is the CLARITY Act, which would define:

Crypto market structure; Exchange regulation; Institutional legitimacy for digital assets

Political gridlock could delay it until 2027 or later. Even now, policy execution is not frictionless. Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis who has also announced she will not seek re-election in 2026.

Another Shift: The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Broken

For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle failed to repeat.

  • The year after the 2024 halving did not continue higher

  • 2025 closed lower — unprecedented in prior cycles

This does not imply structural weakness. It reflects a regime change:

Bitcoin has shifted from a supply-shock-driven asset to a liquidity-sensitive, macro-driven asset.

Today, BTC responds more to: dollar liquidity & real rates, ETF flows, institutional allocation and global economic cycles

Leave your comments to win tiger coins!

  1. “The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is ____.”

  2. MSTR is undervalued/overvalued.

MSTR Rallies As MSCI Backs: Is 2026 of BTC Institutional Supercycle?
Shares of Strategy Inc (MSTR) moved higher Wednesday after MSCI reversed plans to remove crypto-treasury firms from its global indexes, easing fears of forced institutional selling. Institutions are buying 76% more BTC than miners are producing, creating a supply deficit. 1. With MSCI’s reversal, does MSTR regain its appeal for institutional portfolios? 2. If Bitcoin pushes toward $150K, is current crypto exposure still underpriced? 3. Looking ahead to 2026, do you favor Bitcoin proxies like MSTR, spot ETFs, or miners?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    01-09
    Shyon
    从我的角度来看，加密货币并没有耗尽时间，但它正在耗尽政治确定性下一年最重要的变量是美国流动性与政策执行，而不是叙事。《清晰法案》对于象征意义来说并不重要，更重要的是证明支持加密的言论可以转化为持久的监管。

    被打破的4年比特币周期证实了政权转移，而不是结构性弱点。比特币已经从供应冲击交易演变为流动性驱动的资产，对实际利率、ETF流量和美元流动性的反应比减半更大。横盘或修正阶段现在反映的是宏观状况，而不是论文的失败。

    关于MSTR $Strategy(MSTR)$ ，我认为相对于其作为杠杆比特币代理的作用而言，估值合理如果BTC企稳，MSTR可能接近底部，但有意义的上涨取决于流动性的恢复和持续的机构流入。
    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • Isleigh
    01-10
    Isleigh
    Next week looks like more sideways chop with a slight bullish tilt for crypto plays BTC:
    Stuck around $90K–$91K right now, but holding support feels solid. Could grind up to $95K–$100K if momentum picks up and no big macro shocks hit.

    MSTR: Trading near $160-ish, super leveraged to BTC. If Bitcoin perks up, expect a bounce toward $175–$190 — but watch for volatility.

    MSTU: The 2x MSTR beast is in the low $10 range after getting wrecked. Wild swings ahead; good BTC days could spike it hard, bad ones crush it fast

    Momentum & ETF flows will drive it more than news. Not financial advice — trade smart!

  • L.Lim
    01-09
    L.Lim
    The important variable would have to be political sentiment. The huge rally that happened when trump was sworn in, happened because he projected the right signals. Although it is starting to look like a pump and dump where he infected hype to get attention and make a quick buck, then pulled the rug and proceeded off to his next  get-rich scheme. With the abandonment, some investors likely decided to give up, having entered because they thought there would be sustained efforts to hype crypto up from the white house.

    I think MSTR is overvalued

  • koolgal
    01-09
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟While the halving of Bitcoin used to be the main event, the single most important variable for 2026/2027 is accelerated tokenisation.

    Tokenisation is a revolutionary process that transforms the ownership rights of physical or digital assets into a "digital token" on a blockchain (a secure, shared digital ledger).

    Why accelerated tokenisation in 2026?  This is driven by the institutional giants like Morgan Stanley & BlackRock.

    1. Instant Liquidity: Tokenisation eliminates slow, manual process.

    2.  Fractional Ownership: It makes high value assets accessible to everyone.

    3. Automation & Efficiency: The "tokens" are programmable.  That means they can automatically pay dividends or enforce trading rules without a costly intermediary like a broker.

    4.  The Stablecoin Sink:  As assets are tokenised, they often need stablecoins to settle transactions immediately.

    Exciting times are ahead for the crypto market!

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

  • 這是甚麼東西
    01-09
    這是甚麼東西
    For the broader crypto market, the path of regulatory acceptance and how major financial institutions choose to classify and include crypto assets will be a paramount driver in the coming year.

    Regarding MSTR.US, it exhibits characteristics of both a potential value opportunity (trading at low P/B, high analyst targets) and a high-risk asset (eroding competitive advantage, financial losses, leverage, and regulatory overhang). Its valuation is intrinsically tied to Bitcoin's price but is also discounted by its operational risks and costs. Therefore, a simple "undervalued" or "overvalued" label is not appropriate; it is a specialized, high-beta instrument whose appeal depends heavily on an investor's specific views on Bitcoin's future, tolerance for leverage, and assessment of corporate execution risk.

  • BTS
    01-12 02:55
    BTS
    (1) The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is the 2026 US Midterm Elections and the resulting fate of the CLARITY Act

    (2) MSTR is undervalued because its massive Bitcoin treasury and recent MSCI inclusion reprieve offer unique leveraged exposure to an eventual supply crunch whereas MSTR is overvalued because its high debt-to-equity ratio and premium over net asset value make it dangerously vulnerable to political gridlock and Bitcoin price corrections

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