If one word defined the session, it was mixed. Economic data lacked a clear message, equities struggled for direction, and visibility for the rest of the week remains limited as investors parse noisy signals from both the consumer and the labor market.
Mixed Signals
Markets End the Day Split
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$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.2% (recovering from earlier losses)
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$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.2%
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Dow Jones: –302 points (–0.6%)
Market breadth was weak, and sentiment soured as investors reacted to rising unemployment and inconsistent economic indicators.
Market Snapshot
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Hot Stock: $Comcast(CMCSA)$ +5.4%
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Biggest Loser: Phillips 66 –6.9%
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Best Sector: Information Technology +0.3%
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Worst Sector: Energy –3.0%
Consumer Spending: Weak Headline, Better Details
October retail sales were flat, but the headline masked sharp contrasts:
What weighed on spending
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Auto sales declined sharply.
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Spending at restaurants and bars fell 0.4%, compounding downward revisions to September.
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This matters because restaurant spending feeds directly into real GDP calculations.
What helped
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The retail sales control group, which strips out volatile categories, rose 0.8% month over month.
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This is a key input into inflation-adjusted GDP and suggests underlying demand remains resilient.
Takeaway
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The U.S. consumer is slowing, but not breaking.
Jobs Report: Soft, but Unclear
Tuesday’s long-delayed labor data finally arrived, and came with heavy caveats.
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Unemployment rate: 4.6% (highest since 2021)
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Payroll growth: +64,000 in November
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Private sector hiring: Averaging ~16,250 jobs per week in late November (ADP)
Why the jump in unemployment isn’t alarming, yet
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Much of the increase came from people re-entering the labor force, not from mass layoffs.
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Jobless claims remain low.
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Layoff announcements have eased.
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Job openings have improved in recent months.
Data quality concerns
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics flagged six separate reliability issues, stemming from:
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Lower survey response rates
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Weighting changes
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Distortions caused by the government shutdown
Fed Implications
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Economists broadly agree the data does not force the Fed’s hand.
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Policymakers are likely to discount November’s jobs report and wait for cleaner December data.
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The next meaningful labor signal arrives January 9, ahead of the Fed’s Jan. 27–28 meeting.
What Comes Next
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Markets are shifting focus toward inflation data, which may become the primary driver into year-end.
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Earnings from $General Mills(GIS)$, Jabil, and $Micron Technology(MU)$ arrive today.
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Until cleaner data emerges, volatility may remain muted, but uncertainty elevated.
Bottom Line
Economic signals are pointing in different directions. The labor market is cooling, the consumer is selective, and the data itself is unreliable.
For now, that gives the Federal Reserve room to stay patient, and leaves markets stuck in wait-and-see mode as the year winds down…
[Salute][ShakeHands]
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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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