$Oracle(ORCL)$ Oracle Deepens -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Oracle Deepens AI Anxiety: Will It Accelerate the Sell-Off?

Title: Oracle's Earnings: The Ugly Truth About AI Capex

Oracle's post-earnings plunge is a masterclass in the AI investment dilemma. The market's reaction is rational and points to broader sector risk.

Why it's so concerning:

1. The Cash Burn: -$10 billion in FCF is staggering. It shows the immense capital intensity required to compete with the cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP).

2. Capex Without Near-Term ROI: Raising capex guidance by $15 billion signals the spending war is escalating, but Oracle's cloud revenue miss suggests they are not winning market share proportionally. Investors are asking: "Where's the payoff?"

3. Competitive Disadvantage: Unlike Microsoft or Google, Oracle lacks a massive, profitable "other business" (like Office or Search) to fund this AI arms race indefinitely.

Will it accelerate the sell-off?

Yes, for the "AI also-ran" cohort. Oracle's report casts a harsh light on any company making massive AI infrastructure bets without clear, near-term monetization or a dominant existing cash cow. It validates fears of a brutal "AI winter" for losers where only the strongest (with fortress balance sheets like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) survive the capex war.

This is a stock-specific execution problem that echoes Broadcom's margin warning. It will fuel rotation within tech, from high-capex, low-visibility names to those with clearer paths to AI profitability.

Oracle +6%! Does TikTok News Change Oracle’s Fundamentals?

Oracle shares extended gains to about 6% in after-hours trading following reports that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The rebound comes after Oracle’s stock fell roughly 10% on its recent earnings release and has declined about 50% from its year-to-date high amid concerns around debt and CDS pricing. ----- How significant do you think this agreement could be for Oracle’s long-term fundamentals? After such a large drawdown, how would you approach risk management or position sizing in Oracle?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

1

1

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":510977532121568,"tweetId":"510977532121568","gmtCreate":1765763996916,"gmtModify":1765764984972,"author":{"id":4117163421999332,"idStr":"4117163421999332","authorId":4117163421999332,"authorIdStr":"4117163421999332","name":"KohKohKrunch","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc4f5e8fe83c3f095c7d317739004846","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.03","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"fcc5115540144055a3da884051a2c905","categoryId":"7a15628ce2174325bddc6229505e0d70","name":"Oracle +6%! Does TikTok News Change Oracle’s Fundamentals?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":fcc5115540144055a3da884051a2c905}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"Oracle shares extended gains to about 6% in after-hours trading following reports that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The rebound comes after Oracle’s stock fell roughly 10% on its recent earnings release and has declined about 50% from its year-to-date high amid concerns around debt and CDS pricing.\n-----\nHow significant do you think this agreement could be for Oracle’s long-term fundamentals?\nAfter such a large drawdown, how would you approach risk management or position sizing in Oracle?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6c2254a328e2eaeb2b91a3133df1ab5"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<p>Oracle Deepens AI Anxiety: Will It Accelerate the Sell-Off?</p>\n<p>Title: Oracle's Earnings: The Ugly Truth About AI Capex</p>\n<p>Oracle's post-earnings plunge is a masterclass in the AI investment dilemma. The market's reaction is rational and points to broader sector risk.</p>\n<p>Why it's so concerning:</p>\n<p>1. The Cash Burn: -$10 billion in FCF is staggering. It shows the immense capital intensity required to compete with the cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP).</p>\n<p>2. Capex Without Near-Term ROI: Raising capex guidance by $15 billion signals the spending war is escalating, but Oracle's cloud revenue miss suggests they are not winning market share proportionally. Investors are asking: \"Where's the payoff?\"</p>\n<p>3. Competitive Disadvantage: Unlike Microsoft or Google, Oracle lacks a massive, profitable \"other business\" (like Office or Search) to fund this AI arms race indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Will it accelerate the sell-off?</p>\n<p>Yes, for the \"AI also-ran\" cohort. Oracle's report casts a harsh light on any company making massive AI infrastructure bets without clear, near-term monetization or a dominant existing cash cow. It validates fears of a brutal \"AI winter\" for losers where only the strongest (with fortress balance sheets like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) survive the capex war.</p>\n<p>This is a stock-specific execution problem that echoes Broadcom's margin warning. It will fuel rotation within tech, from high-capex, low-visibility names to those with clearer paths to AI profitability.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><br></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<p>Oracle Deepens AI Anxiety: Will It Accelerate the Sell-Off?</p>\n<p>Title: Oracle's Earnings: The Ugly Truth About AI Capex</p>\n<p>Oracle's post-earnings plunge is a masterclass in the AI investment dilemma. The market's reaction is rational and points to broader sector risk.</p>\n<p>Why it's so concerning:</p>\n<p>1. The Cash Burn: -$10 billion in FCF is staggering. It shows the immense capital intensity required to compete with the cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP).</p>\n<p>2. Capex Without Near-Term ROI: Raising capex guidance by $15 billion signals the spending war is escalating, but Oracle's cloud revenue miss suggests they are not winning market share proportionally. Investors are asking: \"Where's the payoff?\"</p>\n<p>3. Competitive Disadvantage: Unlike Microsoft or Google, Oracle lacks a massive, profitable \"other business\" (like Office or Search) to fund this AI arms race indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Will it accelerate the sell-off?</p>\n<p>Yes, for the \"AI also-ran\" cohort. Oracle's report casts a harsh light on any company making massive AI infrastructure bets without clear, near-term monetization or a dominant existing cash cow. It validates fears of a brutal \"AI winter\" for losers where only the strongest (with fortress balance sheets like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) survive the capex war.</p>\n<p>This is a stock-specific execution problem that echoes Broadcom's margin warning. It will fuel rotation within tech, from high-capex, low-visibility names to those with clearer paths to AI profitability.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><br></p></body></html>","text":"$Oracle(ORCL)$ Oracle Deepens AI Anxiety: Will It Accelerate the Sell-Off? Title: Oracle's Earnings: The Ugly Truth About AI Capex Oracle's post-earnings plunge is a masterclass in the AI investment dilemma. The market's reaction is rational and points to broader sector risk. Why it's so concerning: 1. The Cash Burn: -$10 billion in FCF is staggering. It shows the immense capital intensity required to compete with the cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP). 2. Capex Without Near-Term ROI: Raising capex guidance by $15 billion signals the spending war is escalating, but Oracle's cloud revenue miss suggests they are not winning market share proportionally. Investors are asking: \"Where's the payoff?\" 3. Competitive Disadvantage: Unlike Microsoft or Google, Oracle lacks a massive, profitable \"other business\" (like Office or Search) to fund this AI arms race indefinitely. Will it accelerate the sell-off? Yes, for the \"AI also-ran\" cohort. Oracle's report casts a harsh light on any company making massive AI infrastructure bets without clear, near-term monetization or a dominant existing cash cow. It validates fears of a brutal \"AI winter\" for losers where only the strongest (with fortress balance sheets like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) survive the capex war. This is a stock-specific execution problem that echoes Broadcom's margin warning. It will fuel rotation within tech, from high-capex, low-visibility names to those with clearer paths to AI profitability.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/510977532121568","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["ORCL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1244,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/510977532121568"}