For: Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?

Title: Pop Mart: When the "Collectible" Narrative Loses Its Magic

Pop Mart's ~40% crash from August highs is more than a Morgan Stanley downgrade—it's a fundamental challenge to its growth story. The core issue is whether IP-driven collectibles have a durable, expanding addressable market, or if it's a saturated fashion trend.

Morgan Stanley's Downgrade (30% → 18% growth) is significant because it questions:

· Repeat Purchase Rate: Can adult collectors maintain spending through economic cycles?

· IP Longevity: Are characters like Molly having lasting power, or are they fading?

· International Expansion: Can it truly replicate its China success abroad against different cultures and competitors?

HK$180 Target?

Technically, it's in range. The stock broke key support levels and sentiment is shattered. The valuation (P/E) is compressing from a "high-growth" to a "mature consumer" multiple. Until there's clear evidence of renewed user growth or a blockbuster new IP line, the trend is downward. This is a classic "don't catch a falling knife" situation until fundamentals stabilize.

Vote: Agree with the cautious outlook. The risk is to the downside until new catalysts emerge.