KohKohKrunch
12-15 09:53

For: Robotaxi Moment: Will 2026 Be Tesla’s True Breakout Year?

Title: 2026: The Year the Robotaxi War Truly Begins

Morgan Stanley's "singularity moment" forecast for 2026 isn't just about technology—it's about economics and scalability. The projected dual-oligopoly of Waymo (safety-first, geofenced) and Tesla (cost-first, scalable) perfectly frames the coming battle.

Has the story been priced into Tesla?

Partially. The stock has long traded on autonomous potential. However, a successful commercial launch in 2026 would shift the narrative from "potential" to "revenue," justifying a significant re-rating. The market currently values Tesla as a volatile auto/energy company; consistent robotaxi income could solidify it as a high-margin tech platform.

Who wins? Tesla vs. Waymo.

This isn't a zero-sum game initially. Waymo will likely dominate the premium, "set-it-and-forget-it" ride-hailing market in dense urban cores. Tesla, with its millions of potential customer-owned vehicles, could win the broader suburban and inter-city market through a decentralized, lower-cost model. The winner long-term may be whoever solves scaling safely at the lowest cost per mile.

The real question for investors: Is your timeline long enough to wait for 2026-2027 validation, and can you stomach the volatility until then?

Vote: The story is priced in for optimism, but not for proven commercial success.

Tesla With No Driver? Is $500 Possible at Year-End?
On December 14, an X user captured footage of a Tesla Model Y driving through the streets of Austin, appearing to have no one inside the vehicle—not even a safety supervisor. Later that Sunday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded, stating that the company is currently testing robotaxis operating without human safety drivers. Will Tesla set new all time highs in December? How do you view robotaxi?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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