yeah I kinda felt this too tbh

yeah I kinda felt this too tbh, like the drop looked scary but your post made it feel more like volatility than damage. lowkey watching how $Broadcom(AVGO)$ holds structure after earnings, fr the flow part was interesting. also $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ vibes still strong across the space 👀 but $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ held 🆙 the best fr 🚀

@Barcode：🚨🧠📉 Broadcom Beat, Raised, Then Triggered A Full AI Valuation Reset 📉🧠🚨

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comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.08","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":234,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>yeah I kinda felt this too tbh, like the drop looked scary but your post made it feel more like volatility than damage. lowkey watching how <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> holds structure after earnings, fr the flow part was interesting. also <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> vibes still strong across the space 👀 but <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> held 🆙 the best fr 🚀</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>yeah I kinda felt this too tbh, like the drop looked scary but your post made it feel more like volatility than damage. lowkey watching how <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> holds structure after earnings, fr the flow part was interesting. also <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a> vibes still strong across the space 👀 but <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> held 🆙 the best fr 🚀</body></html>","text":"yeah I kinda felt this too tbh, like the drop looked scary but your post made it feel more like volatility than damage. lowkey watching how $Broadcom(AVGO)$ holds structure after earnings, fr the flow part was interesting. also $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ vibes still strong across the space 👀 but $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ held 🆙 the best fr 🚀","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":29,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/510194889990264","repostId":510159191736416,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":510159191736416,"tweetId":"510159191736416","gmtCreate":1765564302258,"gmtModify":1765790557741,"author":{"id":4171900329979952,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorId":4171900329979952,"authorIdStr":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.30","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.12.15","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":7026,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"b5052af5cd114203b3610d69100a138f","categoryId":"7a15628ce2174325bddc6229505e0d70","name":"Broadcom Beats, Yet Misses AI Dream: Is AI Narrative Fading?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":b5052af5cd114203b3610d69100a138f}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"Despite the positive earnings results, Broadcom’s stock fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.\nOne key reason: the company revealed that it currently has $73 billion worth of AI product backlogs, a number that left some investors disappointed.\n-----------\nIs Semiconductor dip a buying opportunity or not?\nHas market abandoned AI narrative?\nHow do interepret AVGO's earnings?\n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db36b86421612dffbc24af32ff9c21bb"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f0e3aa5170547a533290dca4007a439a","width":"1472","height":"828"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3afafd18fc8e79fd8eaeb617f2e3995","width":"604","height":"611"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e62acf61effd37f49ec4fa55cb60337a","width":"1472","height":"1293"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37be4bef9f151c2362f7775475dd5321","width":"1472","height":"1905"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5e930d3d5b84f596328f2ddb845d568","width":"1380","height":"875"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba1574a4e609bbf48a93859f39ea8406","width":"1380","height":"875"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b8c311b7352f176cad5ccacfbde4b4b","width":"1472","height":"1797"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8740a4ef72be687c0d29960e4c8030dd","width":"1473","height":"828"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d101970e74784cb80ba5e5ed6895916","width":"1472","height":"1806"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ca39957154ca6664a46fc66a0e6a623","width":"1472","height":"1549"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de1fdcad69177ce1883a939308f4233b","width":"2752","height":"1744"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f538e5fecdfaa5b5b0534625f8eea7a","width":"1434","height":"793"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4904b1ac78a4f801c8a55c60892b0500","width":"1472","height":"825"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/269d60e02ff9a60224a79d2fa24d0fd1","width":"1473","height":"1742"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1012de8ca0d87033395bbb162edc00e8","width":"1641","height":"1304"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f0e3aa5170547a533290dca4007a439a","width":"1472","height":"828"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3afafd18fc8e79fd8eaeb617f2e3995","width":"604","height":"611"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e62acf61effd37f49ec4fa55cb60337a","width":"1472","height":"1293"}],"title":"🚨🧠📉 Broadcom Beat, Raised, Then Triggered A Full AI Valuation Reset 📉🧠🚨","html":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f0e3aa5170547a533290dca4007a439a\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"828\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3afafd18fc8e79fd8eaeb617f2e3995\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"611\">\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;\n<h3>🎯 Executive Summary</h3>\nI’m extremely confident $AVGO just delivered one of the strongest AI infrastructure earnings prints of the quarter, and the stock still got hit because the market chose to punish margin optics and crowding, not execution. Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS was $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat. Revenue was $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat. EPS surged 37% YoY and revenue rose 28% YoY. The stock then snapped lower by roughly $43, down about 10% to 11%, falling from the low $400s into the $360s after briefly flirting with a ~$2T market cap. This is a classic credibility reset, the tape repriced incentives, liquidity, and time.\nI’m framing the quarter inside a larger structural trend: the first inflection came from Software after $VMW, the second inflection is now Semiconductors, driven by AI networking plus custom XPUs. The market is staring at AI valuation risk after a ~75% YTD run, and it is reacting to mix, not momentum.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e62acf61effd37f49ec4fa55cb60337a\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1293\">\n<h3>🐂 Bull Case</h3>\n• I see a platform compounding, not a cyclical pop. FY2025 revenue hit a record $64B, up 24% YoY, with AI revenue surging 65% to $20B.\n• I see operating leverage expanding, not compressing. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $43B, up 35% YoY, with operating margin expanding 350bps to 66.2%.\n• I see AI scaling inside multiple lanes. Q4 AI semiconductor revenue reached $7.4B, up 74% YoY, and Ethernet switches alone contributed $3.2B, proving networking is a second engine, not a sidecar.\n• I see multi-year visibility. AI backlog is $73B over ~18 months and consolidated backlog is $162B, providing durability well beyond one product cycle.\n• I see backlog mix that supports sustained demand. Roughly $53B of the AI backlog is custom XPUs and roughly $20B is networking. AI switches backlog alone tops $10B, with management describing AI switch bookings accelerating 20% QoQ.\n• I see customer breadth expanding at the margin. Anthropic is positioned as a major multi-year custom silicon customer with an $11B order, and a separate fifth customer secured a $1B custom XPU order in Q4. Diversification is improving even while concentration remains high.\n• I see VMware as a margin stabiliser plus a new monetisation leg. VMware subscription ARR is $4.2B, up 15% YoY, with ~95% renewal rates. VMware synergies accelerated to a $1.2B annualised run rate by Q4 end, and management is targeting $500M incremental AI cross-sell in FY2026.\n• I see cash power that makes the model hard to break. FY2025 operating cash flow was $28.1B, up 35% YoY. Q4 free cash flow was $7.5B, about a 41% margin, with trailing free cash flow cited around $26.9B, up about 39% YoY.\n• I see shareholder returns that reinforce confidence. The quarterly dividend was raised 10% to $0.65, translating to about $5.25 annualised post-hike.\n<h3>🐻 Bear Case</h3>\n• I see margin optics as the near-term landmine. System-level sales and pass-through components can shave about 100bps off gross margin percentage even when absolute gross profit dollars and operating income dollars rise. That optical compression is exactly what crowded positioning punishes.\n• I see a two-speed semiconductor profile. AI is accelerating, but non-AI semis remain bifurcated. Broadband is recovering, with commentary pointing to roughly +10% QoQ on a 5G thaw, while wireless remains flat and industrial and enterprise are stable but not snapping back, because AI spending is sucking oxygen out of other enterprise budgets.\n• I see slope-change narrative risk. Management guided to roughly 40% semiconductor growth, with messaging that growth is expected to flatten in 2026, even though the deeper reality is AI still growing 60%+ with non-AI recovering mid-FY2026. Markets trade the headline slope.\n• I see concentration and policy risk as paired threats. Customer concentration remains elevated even with Anthropic and the separate $1B order, and China exposure around 8% can become a headline lever if tariff rhetoric rises.\n• I see supply chain gating risk. TSMC 2nm timing remains a constraint, with peer commentary flagging 2nm delays into H1 2026. Broadcom’s Singapore packaging push helps, but it does not eliminate foundry dependency at advanced nodes.\n• I see working capital as a credibility watch. DSO rose to 58 days from 52 YoY. If collections lag during milestone billing ramps, cash conversion optics can deteriorate even when demand is strong.\n• I see higher capex as execution-sensitive. FY2026 capex is guided around $5.5B, up about 15%, designed for 2nm readiness and Singapore packaging. If that spend fails to translate into delivery assurance, the market will not be patient.\n<h3>💰 Financial Performance Breakdown</h3>\nI’m keeping this as a clean scoreboard, with the full-year frame front and centre.\n• Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS: $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat, up 37% YoY.\n• Q4 FY25 revenue: $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat, up 28% YoY.\n• FY2025 revenue: $64B, up 24% YoY.\n• FY2025 AI revenue: $20B, up 65% YoY.\n• FY2025 adjusted EBITDA: $43B, up 35% YoY.\n• FY2025 operating margin: 66.2%, up 350bps.\n• Q4 non-GAAP net income: $9.7B, up 39% YoY.\n• FY2025 non-GAAP net income: $33.7B, up 42% YoY.\n• Q4 gross margin: 77.9%, up 100bps YoY, reflecting pricing discipline and mix, despite system pass-through noise.\n• Q4 AI semiconductor revenue: $7.4B, up 74% YoY.\n• Q4 Ethernet switches revenue: $3.2B, confirming networking breadth inside AI.\n• FY2025 operating cash flow: $28.1B, up 35% YoY.\n• Q4 capex: $1.2B, focused on Singapore packaging.\n• FY2026 capex guide: $5.5B, up about 15%, tied to advanced packaging and 2nm readiness.\n• DSO: 58 days. Inventory days: 82, down from 85 YoY, signalling clean ramps.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37be4bef9f151c2362f7775475dd5321\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1905\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5e930d3d5b84f596328f2ddb845d568\" tg-width=\"1380\" tg-height=\"875\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba1574a4e609bbf48a93859f39ea8406\" tg-width=\"1380\" tg-height=\"875\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b8c311b7352f176cad5ccacfbde4b4b\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1797\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8740a4ef72be687c0d29960e4c8030dd\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"828\">\n<h3>🛠️ Strategic Headwinds And Execution Risk</h3>\nI’m watching the system-sales shift with seriousness. The $21B Q3 to Q4 wave from customer four was clarified as system sales, Broadcom as the responsible party for the whole rack-scale system, not just the chips. That introduces pass-through dynamics for components Broadcom does not manufacture, which can pressure gross margin percentage while expanding absolute gross margin dollars and operating income dollars. The market tends to trade the percentage, not the dollar.\nI’m also watching manufacturing strategy. The Singapore facility expansion targets insourcing advanced packaging to handle multi-chip integration, driven by supply chain security and delivery assurance, not cost. Front-end remains reliant on partners like TSMC at 3nm and 2nm.\nOn optics technology, management is pushing copper for scale-up within racks and pluggable optics for scale-out as long as possible, implying silicon photonics remains more future than immediate.\nOn OpenAI, I’m aligning to management’s own timeline. The separate 10GW infrastructure alignment is long-term, targeting 2027 to 2029, and is not expected to contribute materially to FY2026. I treat that as prudent guidance discipline, not weakness.\n<h3>🧠 Analyst And Institutional Sentiment</h3>\nI’m reading sentiment as improving on fundamentals but volatile on positioning. The price target stack remains constructive, with a range around $410 to $535 and an average near $470.\nHSBC reiterates Buy with a $535 PT. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight with a $525 PT and positions $AVGO as a top pick, highlighting $15 EPS power by CY27 off backlog durability and custom silicon scale. Citi reiterates Buy and expects recovery, framing the post-earnings drawdown as an overreaction after a strong YTD run. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $462 PT. Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight with a $510 PT citing backlog durability. Deutsche Bank initiated Buy with a $495 PT, focusing on backlog dynamism.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d101970e74784cb80ba5e5ed6895916\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1806\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ca39957154ca6664a46fc66a0e6a623\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1549\">\nInstitutionally, I’m watching flows because this was crowded. Semi ETFs saw about $1.2B of inflows pre-earnings, with $AVGO overweight in major allocations such as Fidelity and T. Rowe. Retail flow remained constructive through the dip, with about $800M accumulation in $AVGO ETF exposure from Dec 1 to Dec 12. Options activity turned defensive post-print, consistent with volatility control rather than thesis abandonment.\nPublic sentiment on X leans bullish on execution, with “crushing AI boom” style threads gaining 10K+ views, while the main criticism is guidance conservatism and perceived tepid sequential growth. I see that as typical late-cycle reaction to margin optics.\n<h3>📉📈 Technical Setup After Earnings</h3>\nI’m treating the earnings move as a volatility air pocket that reset leverage. The 4H structure shows a hard break into the lower volatility channel, with overhead supply building where price previously expanded.\nSupport zone: $360 to $355.\nBreak risk: below $350, then $340.\nReclaim zone: $370 to $380.\nUpper repair zone: $400, then $420 to $430 if momentum stabilises and flow turns less defensive.\nMy base case is repair if $360 holds and the reclaim zone gets regained on improving breadth. My stretch case opens only if $400 is reclaimed and the tape shifts back into risk-on AI infrastructure.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de1fdcad69177ce1883a939308f4233b\" tg-width=\"2752\" tg-height=\"1744\">\n<h3>🌍 Macro And Peer Context </h3>\nI’m framing this move inside a broader AI infrastructure valuation wobble.\nOracle’s execution risk headlines around OpenAI data centre timing created narrative contagion across AI infra. That matters because it shifts the market from pricing demand to pricing delivery.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f538e5fecdfaa5b5b0534625f8eea7a\" tg-width=\"1434\" tg-height=\"793\">\nNvidia remains the liquidity barometer for AI sentiment. Shifts in export regime headlines and China demand tone ripple across the ecosystem, including Broadcom’s networking and custom silicon demand. \n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4904b1ac78a4f801c8a55c60892b0500\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"825\">\nPeers show the same pattern: strong AI growth alongside constraint narratives. AMD echoed AI strength while highlighting shared 2nm bottlenecks. Marvell remains a useful read-through for networking demand and inventory digestion. Macro tailwinds include easing on certain legacy-node export controls which can marginally aid non-AI recovery, while tariff threats remain an ongoing risk to sentiment. ECB rate cuts support EMEA demand conditions, and EMEA revenue was cited as up 12% YoY on software strength while Asia stayed flat around 12% amid constraints. \n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/269d60e02ff9a60224a79d2fa24d0fd1\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"1742\">\n<h3>📊 Valuation And Capital Health</h3>\nI’m not dodging valuation, that’s why the stock moved.\nThe market punished the multiple because the setup was crowded after a massive run. The balance sheet, however, is materially stronger than the fear narrative implies. Cash and equivalents are $16.2B. Total debt is about $65B. Net debt to EBITDA is about 1.5x entering FY2026. That deleveraging profile is enabled by operating cash flow of $28.1B and sustained free cash flow generation.\nThis is not fragile leverage. It is disciplined leverage with visible deleveraging, but it still demands execution in delivery and customer concentration management.\n<h3>⚖️ Verdict And Trade Plan</h3>\nI believe the market punished optics while fundamentals accelerated, and that creates an opportunity for disciplined traders who respect levels and flows.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1012de8ca0d87033395bbb162edc00e8\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"1304\">\nEntry zone: $360 to $355, where demand should defend if this is a true reset, not a breakdown. \nStop level: below $350 on a closing basis, because a clean loss increases probability of a deeper liquidity pocket toward $340.\nBase targets: $380, then $400 if the reclaim zone holds and breadth improves.\nStretch targets: $420 to $430 if $400 is reclaimed and the tape resumes risk-on AI infra repricing.\nConfirmation signals I want: reduced defensive overwriting, improving semiconductor breadth, and a reclaim of key moving average structure on the 4H.\nUpcoming catalysts I’m watching: AI bookings and backlog updates, clarity on customer mix progression, VMware cross-sell execution against the $500M FY2026 target, capex delivery milestones tied to Singapore packaging, macro rate expectations, and any incremental policy or tariff headlines tied to China exposure.\n<h3>🏁 Conclusion</h3>\nI’m extremely confident $AVGO is still compounding through a dual-engine model, semis for AI torque and software for margin ballast. The stock dropped because the trade was crowded and the market demanded optical perfection, not because the earnings engine misfired. If Broadcom keeps shipping, backlog converts, and VMware cross-sell lands, the tape will eventually have to reprice the fundamentals.\n<h3>📌 Key Takeaways</h3>\n• Q4 adjusted EPS $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, beat 4%, up 37% YoY.\n• Q4 revenue $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, beat 3%, up 28% YoY.\n• FY2025 revenue $64B, up 24% YoY.\n• FY2025 AI revenue $20B, up 65% YoY.\n• FY2025 adjusted EBITDA $43B, up 35% YoY, operating margin 66.2%, up 350bps.\n• Q4 AI semiconductor revenue $7.4B, up 74% YoY, Ethernet switches $3.2B.\n• AI backlog $73B, consolidated backlog $162B, AI switch backlog $10B+.\n• Cash $16.2B, debt about $65B, net leverage about 1.5x, FY2026 capex guide $5.5B.\n• Levels: support $360 to $355, risk below $350, reclaim $370 to $380, repair $400 then $420 to $430.\n📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀\nTrade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\">@Tiger_comments</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667620927015\">@Tiger_Earnings</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000572\">@TigerPicks</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667670347831\">@TigerWire</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000439\">@TigerObserver</a>&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f0e3aa5170547a533290dca4007a439a\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"828\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3afafd18fc8e79fd8eaeb617f2e3995\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"611\">\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ORCL\">$Oracle(ORCL)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;\n<h3>🎯 Executive Summary</h3>\nI’m extremely confident $AVGO just delivered one of the strongest AI infrastructure earnings prints of the quarter, and the stock still got hit because the market chose to punish margin optics and crowding, not execution. Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS was $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat. Revenue was $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat. EPS surged 37% YoY and revenue rose 28% YoY. The stock then snapped lower by roughly $43, down about 10% to 11%, falling from the low $400s into the $360s after briefly flirting with a ~$2T market cap. This is a classic credibility reset, the tape repriced incentives, liquidity, and time.\nI’m framing the quarter inside a larger structural trend: the first inflection came from Software after $VMW, the second inflection is now Semiconductors, driven by AI networking plus custom XPUs. The market is staring at AI valuation risk after a ~75% YTD run, and it is reacting to mix, not momentum.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e62acf61effd37f49ec4fa55cb60337a\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1293\">\n<h3>🐂 Bull Case</h3>\n• I see a platform compounding, not a cyclical pop. FY2025 revenue hit a record $64B, up 24% YoY, with AI revenue surging 65% to $20B.\n• I see operating leverage expanding, not compressing. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $43B, up 35% YoY, with operating margin expanding 350bps to 66.2%.\n• I see AI scaling inside multiple lanes. Q4 AI semiconductor revenue reached $7.4B, up 74% YoY, and Ethernet switches alone contributed $3.2B, proving networking is a second engine, not a sidecar.\n• I see multi-year visibility. AI backlog is $73B over ~18 months and consolidated backlog is $162B, providing durability well beyond one product cycle.\n• I see backlog mix that supports sustained demand. Roughly $53B of the AI backlog is custom XPUs and roughly $20B is networking. AI switches backlog alone tops $10B, with management describing AI switch bookings accelerating 20% QoQ.\n• I see customer breadth expanding at the margin. Anthropic is positioned as a major multi-year custom silicon customer with an $11B order, and a separate fifth customer secured a $1B custom XPU order in Q4. Diversification is improving even while concentration remains high.\n• I see VMware as a margin stabiliser plus a new monetisation leg. VMware subscription ARR is $4.2B, up 15% YoY, with ~95% renewal rates. VMware synergies accelerated to a $1.2B annualised run rate by Q4 end, and management is targeting $500M incremental AI cross-sell in FY2026.\n• I see cash power that makes the model hard to break. FY2025 operating cash flow was $28.1B, up 35% YoY. Q4 free cash flow was $7.5B, about a 41% margin, with trailing free cash flow cited around $26.9B, up about 39% YoY.\n• I see shareholder returns that reinforce confidence. The quarterly dividend was raised 10% to $0.65, translating to about $5.25 annualised post-hike.\n<h3>🐻 Bear Case</h3>\n• I see margin optics as the near-term landmine. System-level sales and pass-through components can shave about 100bps off gross margin percentage even when absolute gross profit dollars and operating income dollars rise. That optical compression is exactly what crowded positioning punishes.\n• I see a two-speed semiconductor profile. AI is accelerating, but non-AI semis remain bifurcated. Broadband is recovering, with commentary pointing to roughly +10% QoQ on a 5G thaw, while wireless remains flat and industrial and enterprise are stable but not snapping back, because AI spending is sucking oxygen out of other enterprise budgets.\n• I see slope-change narrative risk. Management guided to roughly 40% semiconductor growth, with messaging that growth is expected to flatten in 2026, even though the deeper reality is AI still growing 60%+ with non-AI recovering mid-FY2026. Markets trade the headline slope.\n• I see concentration and policy risk as paired threats. Customer concentration remains elevated even with Anthropic and the separate $1B order, and China exposure around 8% can become a headline lever if tariff rhetoric rises.\n• I see supply chain gating risk. TSMC 2nm timing remains a constraint, with peer commentary flagging 2nm delays into H1 2026. Broadcom’s Singapore packaging push helps, but it does not eliminate foundry dependency at advanced nodes.\n• I see working capital as a credibility watch. DSO rose to 58 days from 52 YoY. If collections lag during milestone billing ramps, cash conversion optics can deteriorate even when demand is strong.\n• I see higher capex as execution-sensitive. FY2026 capex is guided around $5.5B, up about 15%, designed for 2nm readiness and Singapore packaging. If that spend fails to translate into delivery assurance, the market will not be patient.\n<h3>💰 Financial Performance Breakdown</h3>\nI’m keeping this as a clean scoreboard, with the full-year frame front and centre.\n• Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS: $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat, up 37% YoY.\n• Q4 FY25 revenue: $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat, up 28% YoY.\n• FY2025 revenue: $64B, up 24% YoY.\n• FY2025 AI revenue: $20B, up 65% YoY.\n• FY2025 adjusted EBITDA: $43B, up 35% YoY.\n• FY2025 operating margin: 66.2%, up 350bps.\n• Q4 non-GAAP net income: $9.7B, up 39% YoY.\n• FY2025 non-GAAP net income: $33.7B, up 42% YoY.\n• Q4 gross margin: 77.9%, up 100bps YoY, reflecting pricing discipline and mix, despite system pass-through noise.\n• Q4 AI semiconductor revenue: $7.4B, up 74% YoY.\n• Q4 Ethernet switches revenue: $3.2B, confirming networking breadth inside AI.\n• FY2025 operating cash flow: $28.1B, up 35% YoY.\n• Q4 capex: $1.2B, focused on Singapore packaging.\n• FY2026 capex guide: $5.5B, up about 15%, tied to advanced packaging and 2nm readiness.\n• DSO: 58 days. Inventory days: 82, down from 85 YoY, signalling clean ramps.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37be4bef9f151c2362f7775475dd5321\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1905\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5e930d3d5b84f596328f2ddb845d568\" tg-width=\"1380\" tg-height=\"875\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba1574a4e609bbf48a93859f39ea8406\" tg-width=\"1380\" tg-height=\"875\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b8c311b7352f176cad5ccacfbde4b4b\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1797\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8740a4ef72be687c0d29960e4c8030dd\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"828\">\n<h3>🛠️ Strategic Headwinds And Execution Risk</h3>\nI’m watching the system-sales shift with seriousness. The $21B Q3 to Q4 wave from customer four was clarified as system sales, Broadcom as the responsible party for the whole rack-scale system, not just the chips. That introduces pass-through dynamics for components Broadcom does not manufacture, which can pressure gross margin percentage while expanding absolute gross margin dollars and operating income dollars. The market tends to trade the percentage, not the dollar.\nI’m also watching manufacturing strategy. The Singapore facility expansion targets insourcing advanced packaging to handle multi-chip integration, driven by supply chain security and delivery assurance, not cost. Front-end remains reliant on partners like TSMC at 3nm and 2nm.\nOn optics technology, management is pushing copper for scale-up within racks and pluggable optics for scale-out as long as possible, implying silicon photonics remains more future than immediate.\nOn OpenAI, I’m aligning to management’s own timeline. The separate 10GW infrastructure alignment is long-term, targeting 2027 to 2029, and is not expected to contribute materially to FY2026. I treat that as prudent guidance discipline, not weakness.\n<h3>🧠 Analyst And Institutional Sentiment</h3>\nI’m reading sentiment as improving on fundamentals but volatile on positioning. The price target stack remains constructive, with a range around $410 to $535 and an average near $470.\nHSBC reiterates Buy with a $535 PT. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight with a $525 PT and positions $AVGO as a top pick, highlighting $15 EPS power by CY27 off backlog durability and custom silicon scale. Citi reiterates Buy and expects recovery, framing the post-earnings drawdown as an overreaction after a strong YTD run. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $462 PT. Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight with a $510 PT citing backlog durability. Deutsche Bank initiated Buy with a $495 PT, focusing on backlog dynamism.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d101970e74784cb80ba5e5ed6895916\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1806\">\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ca39957154ca6664a46fc66a0e6a623\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"1549\">\nInstitutionally, I’m watching flows because this was crowded. Semi ETFs saw about $1.2B of inflows pre-earnings, with $AVGO overweight in major allocations such as Fidelity and T. Rowe. Retail flow remained constructive through the dip, with about $800M accumulation in $AVGO ETF exposure from Dec 1 to Dec 12. Options activity turned defensive post-print, consistent with volatility control rather than thesis abandonment.\nPublic sentiment on X leans bullish on execution, with “crushing AI boom” style threads gaining 10K+ views, while the main criticism is guidance conservatism and perceived tepid sequential growth. I see that as typical late-cycle reaction to margin optics.\n<h3>📉📈 Technical Setup After Earnings</h3>\nI’m treating the earnings move as a volatility air pocket that reset leverage. The 4H structure shows a hard break into the lower volatility channel, with overhead supply building where price previously expanded.\nSupport zone: $360 to $355.\nBreak risk: below $350, then $340.\nReclaim zone: $370 to $380.\nUpper repair zone: $400, then $420 to $430 if momentum stabilises and flow turns less defensive.\nMy base case is repair if $360 holds and the reclaim zone gets regained on improving breadth. My stretch case opens only if $400 is reclaimed and the tape shifts back into risk-on AI infrastructure.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de1fdcad69177ce1883a939308f4233b\" tg-width=\"2752\" tg-height=\"1744\">\n<h3>🌍 Macro And Peer Context </h3>\nI’m framing this move inside a broader AI infrastructure valuation wobble.\nOracle’s execution risk headlines around OpenAI data centre timing created narrative contagion across AI infra. That matters because it shifts the market from pricing demand to pricing delivery.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f538e5fecdfaa5b5b0534625f8eea7a\" tg-width=\"1434\" tg-height=\"793\">\nNvidia remains the liquidity barometer for AI sentiment. Shifts in export regime headlines and China demand tone ripple across the ecosystem, including Broadcom’s networking and custom silicon demand. \n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4904b1ac78a4f801c8a55c60892b0500\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"825\">\nPeers show the same pattern: strong AI growth alongside constraint narratives. AMD echoed AI strength while highlighting shared 2nm bottlenecks. Marvell remains a useful read-through for networking demand and inventory digestion. Macro tailwinds include easing on certain legacy-node export controls which can marginally aid non-AI recovery, while tariff threats remain an ongoing risk to sentiment. ECB rate cuts support EMEA demand conditions, and EMEA revenue was cited as up 12% YoY on software strength while Asia stayed flat around 12% amid constraints. \n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/269d60e02ff9a60224a79d2fa24d0fd1\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"1742\">\n<h3>📊 Valuation And Capital Health</h3>\nI’m not dodging valuation, that’s why the stock moved.\nThe market punished the multiple because the setup was crowded after a massive run. The balance sheet, however, is materially stronger than the fear narrative implies. Cash and equivalents are $16.2B. Total debt is about $65B. Net debt to EBITDA is about 1.5x entering FY2026. That deleveraging profile is enabled by operating cash flow of $28.1B and sustained free cash flow generation.\nThis is not fragile leverage. It is disciplined leverage with visible deleveraging, but it still demands execution in delivery and customer concentration management.\n<h3>⚖️ Verdict And Trade Plan</h3>\nI believe the market punished optics while fundamentals accelerated, and that creates an opportunity for disciplined traders who respect levels and flows.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1012de8ca0d87033395bbb162edc00e8\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"1304\">\nEntry zone: $360 to $355, where demand should defend if this is a true reset, not a breakdown. \nStop level: below $350 on a closing basis, because a clean loss increases probability of a deeper liquidity pocket toward $340.\nBase targets: $380, then $400 if the reclaim zone holds and breadth improves.\nStretch targets: $420 to $430 if $400 is reclaimed and the tape resumes risk-on AI infra repricing.\nConfirmation signals I want: reduced defensive overwriting, improving semiconductor breadth, and a reclaim of key moving average structure on the 4H.\nUpcoming catalysts I’m watching: AI bookings and backlog updates, clarity on customer mix progression, VMware cross-sell execution against the $500M FY2026 target, capex delivery milestones tied to Singapore packaging, macro rate expectations, and any incremental policy or tariff headlines tied to China exposure.\n<h3>🏁 Conclusion</h3>\nI’m extremely confident $AVGO is still compounding through a dual-engine model, semis for AI torque and software for margin ballast. The stock dropped because the trade was crowded and the market demanded optical perfection, not because the earnings engine misfired. If Broadcom keeps shipping, backlog converts, and VMware cross-sell lands, the tape will eventually have to reprice the fundamentals.\n<h3>📌 Key Takeaways</h3>\n• Q4 adjusted EPS $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, beat 4%, up 37% YoY.\n• Q4 revenue $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, beat 3%, up 28% YoY.\n• FY2025 revenue $64B, up 24% YoY.\n• FY2025 AI revenue $20B, up 65% YoY.\n• FY2025 adjusted EBITDA $43B, up 35% YoY, operating margin 66.2%, up 350bps.\n• Q4 AI semiconductor revenue $7.4B, up 74% YoY, Ethernet switches $3.2B.\n• AI backlog $73B, consolidated backlog $162B, AI switch backlog $10B+.\n• Cash $16.2B, debt about $65B, net leverage about 1.5x, FY2026 capex guide $5.5B.\n• Levels: support $360 to $355, risk below $350, reclaim $370 to $380, repair $400 then $420 to $430.\n📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀\nTrade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\">@Tiger_comments</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667620927015\">@Tiger_Earnings</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000572\">@TigerPicks</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667670347831\">@TigerWire</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000439\">@TigerObserver</a>&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🎯 Executive Summary I’m extremely confident $AVGO just delivered one of the strongest AI infrastructure earnings prints of the quarter, and the stock still got hit because the market chose to punish margin optics and crowding, not execution. Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS was $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat. Revenue was $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat. EPS surged 37% YoY and revenue rose 28% YoY. The stock then snapped lower by roughly $43, down about 10% to 11%, falling from the low $400s into the $360s after briefly flirting with a ~$2T market cap. This is a classic credibility reset, the tape repriced incentives, liquidity, and time. I’m framing the quarter inside a larger structural trend: the first inflection came from Software after $VMW, the second inflection is now Semiconductors, driven by AI networking plus custom XPUs. The market is staring at AI valuation risk after a ~75% YTD run, and it is reacting to mix, not momentum. 🐂 Bull Case • I see a platform compounding, not a cyclical pop. FY2025 revenue hit a record $64B, up 24% YoY, with AI revenue surging 65% to $20B. • I see operating leverage expanding, not compressing. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $43B, up 35% YoY, with operating margin expanding 350bps to 66.2%. • I see AI scaling inside multiple lanes. Q4 AI semiconductor revenue reached $7.4B, up 74% YoY, and Ethernet switches alone contributed $3.2B, proving networking is a second engine, not a sidecar. • I see multi-year visibility. AI backlog is $73B over ~18 months and consolidated backlog is $162B, providing durability well beyond one product cycle. • I see backlog mix that supports sustained demand. Roughly $53B of the AI backlog is custom XPUs and roughly $20B is networking. AI switches backlog alone tops $10B, with management describing AI switch bookings accelerating 20% QoQ. • I see customer breadth expanding at the margin. Anthropic is positioned as a major multi-year custom silicon customer with an $11B order, and a separate fifth customer secured a $1B custom XPU order in Q4. Diversification is improving even while concentration remains high. • I see VMware as a margin stabiliser plus a new monetisation leg. VMware subscription ARR is $4.2B, up 15% YoY, with ~95% renewal rates. VMware synergies accelerated to a $1.2B annualised run rate by Q4 end, and management is targeting $500M incremental AI cross-sell in FY2026. • I see cash power that makes the model hard to break. FY2025 operating cash flow was $28.1B, up 35% YoY. Q4 free cash flow was $7.5B, about a 41% margin, with trailing free cash flow cited around $26.9B, up about 39% YoY. • I see shareholder returns that reinforce confidence. The quarterly dividend was raised 10% to $0.65, translating to about $5.25 annualised post-hike. 🐻 Bear Case • I see margin optics as the near-term landmine. System-level sales and pass-through components can shave about 100bps off gross margin percentage even when absolute gross profit dollars and operating income dollars rise. That optical compression is exactly what crowded positioning punishes. • I see a two-speed semiconductor profile. AI is accelerating, but non-AI semis remain bifurcated. Broadband is recovering, with commentary pointing to roughly +10% QoQ on a 5G thaw, while wireless remains flat and industrial and enterprise are stable but not snapping back, because AI spending is sucking oxygen out of other enterprise budgets. • I see slope-change narrative risk. Management guided to roughly 40% semiconductor growth, with messaging that growth is expected to flatten in 2026, even though the deeper reality is AI still growing 60%+ with non-AI recovering mid-FY2026. Markets trade the headline slope. • I see concentration and policy risk as paired threats. Customer concentration remains elevated even with Anthropic and the separate $1B order, and China exposure around 8% can become a headline lever if tariff rhetoric rises. • I see supply chain gating risk. TSMC 2nm timing remains a constraint, with peer commentary flagging 2nm delays into H1 2026. Broadcom’s Singapore packaging push helps, but it does not eliminate foundry dependency at advanced nodes. • I see working capital as a credibility watch. DSO rose to 58 days from 52 YoY. If collections lag during milestone billing ramps, cash conversion optics can deteriorate even when demand is strong. • I see higher capex as execution-sensitive. FY2026 capex is guided around $5.5B, up about 15%, designed for 2nm readiness and Singapore packaging. If that spend fails to translate into delivery assurance, the market will not be patient. 💰 Financial Performance Breakdown I’m keeping this as a clean scoreboard, with the full-year frame front and centre. • Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS: $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, a 4% beat, up 37% YoY. • Q4 FY25 revenue: $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, a 3% beat, up 28% YoY. • FY2025 revenue: $64B, up 24% YoY. • FY2025 AI revenue: $20B, up 65% YoY. • FY2025 adjusted EBITDA: $43B, up 35% YoY. • FY2025 operating margin: 66.2%, up 350bps. • Q4 non-GAAP net income: $9.7B, up 39% YoY. • FY2025 non-GAAP net income: $33.7B, up 42% YoY. • Q4 gross margin: 77.9%, up 100bps YoY, reflecting pricing discipline and mix, despite system pass-through noise. • Q4 AI semiconductor revenue: $7.4B, up 74% YoY. • Q4 Ethernet switches revenue: $3.2B, confirming networking breadth inside AI. • FY2025 operating cash flow: $28.1B, up 35% YoY. • Q4 capex: $1.2B, focused on Singapore packaging. • FY2026 capex guide: $5.5B, up about 15%, tied to advanced packaging and 2nm readiness. • DSO: 58 days. Inventory days: 82, down from 85 YoY, signalling clean ramps. 🛠️ Strategic Headwinds And Execution Risk I’m watching the system-sales shift with seriousness. The $21B Q3 to Q4 wave from customer four was clarified as system sales, Broadcom as the responsible party for the whole rack-scale system, not just the chips. That introduces pass-through dynamics for components Broadcom does not manufacture, which can pressure gross margin percentage while expanding absolute gross margin dollars and operating income dollars. The market tends to trade the percentage, not the dollar. I’m also watching manufacturing strategy. The Singapore facility expansion targets insourcing advanced packaging to handle multi-chip integration, driven by supply chain security and delivery assurance, not cost. Front-end remains reliant on partners like TSMC at 3nm and 2nm. On optics technology, management is pushing copper for scale-up within racks and pluggable optics for scale-out as long as possible, implying silicon photonics remains more future than immediate. On OpenAI, I’m aligning to management’s own timeline. The separate 10GW infrastructure alignment is long-term, targeting 2027 to 2029, and is not expected to contribute materially to FY2026. I treat that as prudent guidance discipline, not weakness. 🧠 Analyst And Institutional Sentiment I’m reading sentiment as improving on fundamentals but volatile on positioning. The price target stack remains constructive, with a range around $410 to $535 and an average near $470. HSBC reiterates Buy with a $535 PT. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight with a $525 PT and positions $AVGO as a top pick, highlighting $15 EPS power by CY27 off backlog durability and custom silicon scale. Citi reiterates Buy and expects recovery, framing the post-earnings drawdown as an overreaction after a strong YTD run. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $462 PT. Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight with a $510 PT citing backlog durability. Deutsche Bank initiated Buy with a $495 PT, focusing on backlog dynamism. Institutionally, I’m watching flows because this was crowded. Semi ETFs saw about $1.2B of inflows pre-earnings, with $AVGO overweight in major allocations such as Fidelity and T. Rowe. Retail flow remained constructive through the dip, with about $800M accumulation in $AVGO ETF exposure from Dec 1 to Dec 12. Options activity turned defensive post-print, consistent with volatility control rather than thesis abandonment. Public sentiment on X leans bullish on execution, with “crushing AI boom” style threads gaining 10K+ views, while the main criticism is guidance conservatism and perceived tepid sequential growth. I see that as typical late-cycle reaction to margin optics. 📉📈 Technical Setup After Earnings I’m treating the earnings move as a volatility air pocket that reset leverage. The 4H structure shows a hard break into the lower volatility channel, with overhead supply building where price previously expanded. Support zone: $360 to $355. Break risk: below $350, then $340. Reclaim zone: $370 to $380. Upper repair zone: $400, then $420 to $430 if momentum stabilises and flow turns less defensive. My base case is repair if $360 holds and the reclaim zone gets regained on improving breadth. My stretch case opens only if $400 is reclaimed and the tape shifts back into risk-on AI infrastructure. 🌍 Macro And Peer Context I’m framing this move inside a broader AI infrastructure valuation wobble. Oracle’s execution risk headlines around OpenAI data centre timing created narrative contagion across AI infra. That matters because it shifts the market from pricing demand to pricing delivery. Nvidia remains the liquidity barometer for AI sentiment. Shifts in export regime headlines and China demand tone ripple across the ecosystem, including Broadcom’s networking and custom silicon demand. Peers show the same pattern: strong AI growth alongside constraint narratives. AMD echoed AI strength while highlighting shared 2nm bottlenecks. Marvell remains a useful read-through for networking demand and inventory digestion. Macro tailwinds include easing on certain legacy-node export controls which can marginally aid non-AI recovery, while tariff threats remain an ongoing risk to sentiment. ECB rate cuts support EMEA demand conditions, and EMEA revenue was cited as up 12% YoY on software strength while Asia stayed flat around 12% amid constraints. 📊 Valuation And Capital Health I’m not dodging valuation, that’s why the stock moved. The market punished the multiple because the setup was crowded after a massive run. The balance sheet, however, is materially stronger than the fear narrative implies. Cash and equivalents are $16.2B. Total debt is about $65B. Net debt to EBITDA is about 1.5x entering FY2026. That deleveraging profile is enabled by operating cash flow of $28.1B and sustained free cash flow generation. This is not fragile leverage. It is disciplined leverage with visible deleveraging, but it still demands execution in delivery and customer concentration management. ⚖️ Verdict And Trade Plan I believe the market punished optics while fundamentals accelerated, and that creates an opportunity for disciplined traders who respect levels and flows. Entry zone: $360 to $355, where demand should defend if this is a true reset, not a breakdown. Stop level: below $350 on a closing basis, because a clean loss increases probability of a deeper liquidity pocket toward $340. Base targets: $380, then $400 if the reclaim zone holds and breadth improves. Stretch targets: $420 to $430 if $400 is reclaimed and the tape resumes risk-on AI infra repricing. Confirmation signals I want: reduced defensive overwriting, improving semiconductor breadth, and a reclaim of key moving average structure on the 4H. Upcoming catalysts I’m watching: AI bookings and backlog updates, clarity on customer mix progression, VMware cross-sell execution against the $500M FY2026 target, capex delivery milestones tied to Singapore packaging, macro rate expectations, and any incremental policy or tariff headlines tied to China exposure. 🏁 Conclusion I’m extremely confident $AVGO is still compounding through a dual-engine model, semis for AI torque and software for margin ballast. The stock dropped because the trade was crowded and the market demanded optical perfection, not because the earnings engine misfired. If Broadcom keeps shipping, backlog converts, and VMware cross-sell lands, the tape will eventually have to reprice the fundamentals. 📌 Key Takeaways • Q4 adjusted EPS $1.95 vs $1.87 expected, beat 4%, up 37% YoY. • Q4 revenue $18.015B vs $17.46B expected, beat 3%, up 28% YoY. • FY2025 revenue $64B, up 24% YoY. • FY2025 AI revenue $20B, up 65% YoY. • FY2025 adjusted EBITDA $43B, up 35% YoY, operating margin 66.2%, up 350bps. • Q4 AI semiconductor revenue $7.4B, up 74% YoY, Ethernet switches $3.2B. • AI backlog $73B, consolidated backlog $162B, AI switch backlog $10B+. • Cash $16.2B, debt about $65B, net leverage about 1.5x, FY2026 capex guide $5.5B. • Levels: support $360 to $355, risk below $350, reclaim $370 to $380, repair $400 then $420 to $430. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @Tiger_Earnings @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/510159191736416","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","AVGO","ORCL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":11131,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1067,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["NVDA","TSLA","AVGO"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":275,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/510194889990264"}