I am sharing one of the popular recent trades today. Yes, it's a long time coming home run... I have been patiently gathering silver related miners and ETF, even physical silver itself over the decade or so. Today's sharing focuses only on those buys within the last couple of years.

Like those ever-unwavering cryptocurrency or Elon Musk's fan, I am a silver fan. In the early days of silver obsession, my primary focus was in US silver miners or streamers, like $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ and $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ . 

When I moved to Australia more than a decade ago, it gives me the proximity access to understand Australian miners a little bit more. That is when I started phase 2 of my accumulation in both US and Australia. Slow and steady wins the race. 

The main reason for going for silver rather than gold is its industrial applications and the ridiculous gold-silver ratio that is moving further away from silver. I am a scientific and logical person, so I am a firm believer in reversal to the mean. The idea is to accumulate slowly when silver is hated or unlike when the price is low. 

Silver is known as a much volatile commodity compared to gold. Unlike cryptocurrency and Tesla however, both gold and silver are not known for their explosive nature or volatility. Even silver is considered as a super stable commodity compared to those two. It has therefore surprised many onlookers when silver and gold embark on their latest trajectories. So much so that the silver trade becomes so "fun" that it's simply too hard for market participants and speculators alike to ignore. 

FOMO or fear of missing out is the last phrase I would associate with my silver obsession. However, now I am not so sure if I can ignore that attention. So much so that buying silver has gradually becoming a crowded trade.

This is not an article for signalling that silver is now overpriced. This is also nothing about my early positioning. I am comfortable as I am to enter the market on a selective basis. The rally in silver, which includes the breakdown of gold-silver ratio, allows me the luxury to say that this part of the rally has just begun, crowded or otherwise.

Yes, we are expecting higher volatility in silver price movements going forward at this stage. As long as the gold-silver ratio breakdown continues to hold, the upside in silver price will only accelerate into the new year.

The important issue to note that we are not seeing simply a stronger silver at the expense of gold, rather despite the strength of gold. Yes, this is important. Gold-silver ratio could break downwards if gold price is heading down but this is NOT the case here. There's a common "enemy", the continued dedollarisation or collapse in the trust of USD, which I had raised in 5 series of articles around 2 years ago. If anyone is interested, you can read them up. 

Besides the continued decline of USD, there's a slow movement towards the distrust in US Federal Reserve especially leading up to the changeover of Fed chair in May next year. A politically aligned or Trump  lackey is not going to command confidence among the world major economies and financial institutions. There's no telling if the US central bank is acting based on the good of its citizens and economy. By the time the US economy crashes as a result of the woeful actions of this untrustworthy central bank, it will be too late for the market at large. I can even foreseen Trump blaming the current Fed chair for future disastrous monetary actions. That is where the precious metals group comes into play. A calm foothold in the face of looming stagflation or even possible economical collapse.

Just my 2 cents. The next couple of years might see the rise of fellow commodities like copper, oil and other basic materials if it has not started. Commodities won't stay a dirty word forever.

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