Hello everyone, welcome to the third episode of our Technical Analysis series. Today, we’ll be learning the last two bear-market patterns out of the six common chart formations.
1. Bearish Divergence - Warning Sign
From June 2023 to August 2023, $Apple(AAPL)$ price continued climbing to new highs, but the buying volume steadily declined, forming lower highs.
This bearish volume divergence signaled weakening momentum. By August, the trend failed, leading to a gap-down and a sharp sell-off—confirming that the earlier volume warnings were valid.
Key Characteristics of Bearish Volume Divergence:
Price makes a new high: Peak B rises above Peak A, showing continued upward movement.
Volume makes a lower high: Volume at Point B is weaker than at Point A, indicating reduced participation.
Classic warning of fading momentum: Even though price pushes higher, the lack of strong volume support suggests the uptrend may be losing strength.
Easy analogy: Like climbing a hill while the crowd’s cheering becomes quieter—the effort increases, but the support behind it weakens.
2. Selling Climax (Capitulation)
Example: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , March 2020 During the COVID market crash, SPY experienced a violent decline accompanied by massive volume spikes.
This surge in volume reflected capitulation—investors dumping positions in panic. The extreme selling pressure marked the exhaustion of the downtrend, which was soon followed by a strong rebound.
Key Characteristics of a Selling Climax (Capitulation):
Sharp, steep decline on extremely high volume: Price drops rapidly as traders and investors rush to sell.
Typically appears after an extended downtrend: Fear builds over time until it finally erupts into a panic sell-off.
Candles often show a long lower wick: This indicates heavy intraday selling followed by aggressive buying attempts, sometimes forming a hammer-type candle.
Easy analogy: Panic selling — everyone rushing for the exits at the same time.
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Comments
2020年SPDR标普500指数ETF崩盘的抛售高潮例子很好地提醒我们，恐慌往往标志着下跌趋势的结束，而不是开始。这些巨大的成交量峰值加上较长的较低灯芯通常表明恐惧已经达到顶峰，更强的手正在介入。这是极少数几次极端波动实际上预示着机遇而不是危险的情况之一。
总的来说，这两种模式相辅相成——一种预警早，另一种确认晚。我发现这两者在评估趋势强度和发现潜在反转点时都很有用。
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例如： $美国超微公司(AMD)$ 十一月。
尽管其股价创下历史新高，但以指标衡量的潜在势头却讲述了一个不同的故事。这种模式是随后价格大幅调整的警告信号。
AMD在10月底触及52周高点。然而，价格的较高高点与RSI的较低高点相矛盾，形成了经典的看跌背离模式。
背离变得明显后不久，AMD大幅回调，最终较峰值下跌27%。
@Tiger_chat @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @老虎船长
这一事件通常标志着下跌趋势的最后阶段&表明市场底部即将到来，因为大多数风险承受能力较低的投资者已经退出市场，留下潜在买家介入。
例如：4月25日， $英伟达(NVDA)$ 经历了明显的下跌，显示出抛售高潮的特征。英伟达4月4日下跌7.3%，连续第二天大幅下跌。大幅下跌之后，交易量大幅飙升。大幅下跌时的高成交量表明恐慌性抛售。
在经历了4月份的低点后，英伟达反弹。到6月份，Nvidia的股价已较4月份的低点上涨了45%。
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