History Says: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?

Tiger_comments
2025-11-26
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History shows that Thanksgiving week doesn’t usually rise for four consecutive years… but will this year be different?

After last week’s steep sell-off, U.S. equities staged a rapid sentiment reversal within just a few days. For two consecutive trading sessions, Federal Reserve officials boosted expectations for a December rate cut, sending the probability surging to 80%. Tech stocks rebounded sharply, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ posting its best single-day gain since May. Crypto also rallied to 87,793.

With the Thanksgiving holiday arriving this week, how does the market typically perform during Thanksgiving week?

Thanksgiving-week S&P 500 performance over the past 20 years: It ended positive in 13 of those years.

The Statistical Pattern: 2025 leans toward “unlikely to complete four straight Thanksgiving-week gains”

Looking back at the past 20 years, the S&P 500 rose in 13 Thanksgiving weeks—overall a seasonally warm period. But there is a rarely discussed yet highly important pattern:

The S&P 500 has never risen for four consecutive Thanksgiving weeks.

And since 2022, 2023, and 2024 have already logged gains, the statistical tendency for 2025 leans toward a pullback.

However, VIX sends a reversal signal

Historically, when the previous week’s $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closes in the 20s, the setup actually leans bullish for Thanksgiving week.

Last week VIX closed at 23. This week it quickly fell below the critical 20 level, hitting a low of 18.56. Seen this way, falling volatility suggests that a strong rebound after last week’s sell-off is certainly possible.

2025’s Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018

The 2025 market environment is strikingly similar to 2018:

– The same Trump–Powell tensions.
– The same mixed signals from the Fed—neither fully dovish nor fully hawkish.
– The same year-end macro uncertainty.

In 2018, Thanksgiving week saw a roughly –2% decline under similar conditions, followed by a deep downturn in December.

  1. How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?

  2. With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?

  3. Is now a good time to get in?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!

Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?
The S&P 500 index fell about 2% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since March, while market volatility surged. Citi’s Head of Wealth Management said there is still “some room” for the bull market, and this Wall Street giant has seen record inflows from wealthy clients this year. Last Friday, expectations for a rate cut shifted again, prompting an emergency Fed intervention that ultimately turned the market positive. Will this week see a “mindless” rally? With the Fed set to end QT in December, is this year’s decline over? Are you bullish or bearish?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • icycrystal
    2025-11-26
    icycrystal
    Win 66 Tiger-coins
    guess during holidays people will tend to trade less as most are celebrating and spending time with families.

    also, a time to balance portfolio.

    well, never know how nthe market will swing as sometime it may surprise you [Serious] [Serious] [Serious]

  • Shyon
    2025-11-26
    Shyon
    在我看来，这个感恩节周正处于看涨势头和季节性谨慎的十字路口。历史上，标普500 $S&P 500 Index(.SPX)$ 从未连续四个感恩节周上涨，而且2022年至2024年都是积极的，统计偏差倾向于回调——尤其是在从上周的抛售中大幅反弹之后。

    也就是说，波动率指数 $芝加哥期权交易所 Volatility Index(VIX)$ 从23跌至20以下给出了明确的看涨信号。波动性下降历来支持感恩节周走强，随着12月降息预期升至80%，市场情绪正在迅速改善。如果美联储基调保持鸽派，涨势仍可能在降温之前推高。

    就目前而言，考虑到季节性模式，追逐反弹感觉存在风险，但完全保持观望可能会错过进一步的上涨空间。我更喜欢逢低买入，而不是在当前反弹时买入，因为我仍然预计月底会出现一些波动。

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

  • icycrystal
    2025-11-26
    icycrystal
    @koolgal @Barcode @HelenJanet @rL @Zarkness @Aqa @SPACE ROCKET @nomadic_m @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @Shyon @LMSunshine

    How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?


    With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?


    Is now a good time to get in?


    Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!

    • koolgal: 
      Thanks for sharing 😍😍😍
  • Isleigh
    2025-11-26
    Isleigh
    After looking ugly all week, the Nasdaq ripped +2% intraday, QQQ closed green +0.34%, SPY +0.17%. Google smashed another all-time high, Eli Lilly became the first pharma to hit $1T market cap (Ozempic money printer goes brrr), while poor Oracle suffered its 6th straight red week.Classic rotation: money flowing from last month’s losers (cloud, enterprise) into this month’s winners (AI leaders + GLP-1 kings). Volume was light, but buyers stepped in exactly at the 50-day moving average – textbook technical bounce.Next week is OPEX + Thanksgiving-shortened. Historically, these bounces either turn into year-end melt-ups or get sold hard into month-end. Watch NVDA earnings Wednesday after close – that’s the real boss level. My take: This feels like a relief rally in a bull market, not the start of a bear. But 2-3 red days next week and we re-test the lows fast.Stay nimble, size down into holidays, and keep powder dry.I’m not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!
  • Tiger_comments
    2025-12-01
    Tiger_comments
    Thanks for participating in my discussion. Your coins have been sent through the tiger coin center!
    Check them in the history - “community distribution“
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  • 北极篂
    2025-11-28
    北极篂
    如果总结成三点：
    1）本周大概率维持偏强震荡，但周五因假期前资金获利了结，回调也正常；
    2）上周的抛售我认为是“情绪性过度反应”，不是趋势反转；
    3）是否入场要看节奏，短线追高容易被震，但逢回调分批布局，我觉得仍然是合理的策略。
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