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2025-11-13

$JD.com(JD)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ“Š JD earnings positioning shows a clear split ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿ”ฅ

I am seeing long dated call accumulation hit the tape at $30, $32.5, $35, and $40. That is strategic capital preparing for recovery. Short term flow is defensive. Net call premium stays negative and intraday flow shows systematic call selling as JD trades down to $31.16.

The implied move is $2. Revenue is estimated at $41.33B and EPS at $0.34, both below Q2. JD has beaten revenue in 13 of the last 17 quarters which keeps the probability of an upside deviation alive.

This setup is defined by structural conviction vs near term hedging. That tension often produces sharp post earnings recalibration.

๐Ÿ‘‰โ“Which matters more to you here, long dated accumulation or the short term defence.

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Comments

  • MamieBenson
    2025-11-13
    MamieBenson
    Long accumulation shows conviction. Hedge with Dec calls [็œ‹ๆถจ]
    • Barcode:ย 
      I see that too, Mamie. When long dated accumulation builds while short term hedging stays active, it usually signals deeper conviction beneath the surface. December positioning makes sense given the implied move profile and JDโ€™s historical beat rhythm.
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿฉต May your skies be blue and your trades green ๐ŸŸข
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ Iโ€™m genuinely grateful you read through my post MamieBenson. Your support keeps me motivated to keep pushing the quality higher.
  • Maurice Bertie
    2025-11-13
    Maurice Bertie
    Split flowโ€™s thrilling! Betting JD beats EPS, erases near-term jitters!
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿฉต May your skies be blue and your trades green ๐ŸŸข
    • Barcode:ย 
      Maurice, the split flow is exactly what creates the most informative setups. When near term caution meets longer horizon confidence, earnings often become the catalyst that resolves the tension. JDโ€™s beat history gives that view real weight.
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ I really value your time and attention Maurice Bertie. Thanks for reading and being part of this conversation.
  • Athena Spenser
    2025-11-13
    Athena Spenser
    Long-dated calls all the way.
    • Barcode:ย 
      Athena, long dated signals often carry cleaner information than intraday noise. The $30 to $40 interest tells me that disciplined capital is preparing for a medium term adjustment rather than reacting to short term sentiment.
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿฉต May your skies be blue and your trades green ๐ŸŸข
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ Thank you for being here and reading my post Athena Spenser. Itโ€™s traders like you who make sharing these setups worthwhile.
  • Tui Jude
    2025-11-14
    Tui Jude
    Iโ€™m reading your breakdown and the implied $2 move is exactly the kind of setup where sentiment can flip quickly. The long dated call flow at $30 and $32.5 looks similar to what I noticed in PDD before its sharp rerating when long dated optimism quietly front ran the print. Iโ€™m more interested in how JD behaves relative to its historical beat rate since that track record has been surprisingly consistent. If the flow stays this split, the reaction could get amplified.
  • Hen Solo
    2025-11-14
    Hen Solo
    Iโ€™m studying your chart notes and the drift to $31.16 while long dated buyers keep building is a classic divergence signal. JDโ€™s historical pattern of consolidating into earnings is similar to what Iโ€™ve seen in Tencent where the medium term structure often matters more than the intraday softness. The revenue trend you referenced from the past seventeen quarters is one of the most compelling elements in this setup. Iโ€™m watching how price responds around the thirty one zone.
  • PetS
    2025-11-14
    PetS
    Iโ€™m thinking through your point about structural conviction versus short term defence and it makes sense. The call selling into weakness contrasts sharply with the longer dated interest at $35 and $40. That mirrors how the market often behaves in major China ADRs like BABA where sentiment looks fragile but positioning under the surface stays constructive. JDโ€™s consistency on revenue beats is the anchor for me. If that holds, the recalibration you mentioned becomes likely.
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