$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I believe Broadcom will close in the Flat range (-5% to +5%) on September 5, most likely between $295 and $300. Earnings will be strong, but resistance at $300 and September’s historical weakness will cap the upside.
📊 Macro & Seasonality Context
September has historically been the weakest month for equities. Seasonality charts confirm:
• S&P 500: steady early, sharp fade after mid-month.
• Apple & Meta: typically drag indices lower.
• Amazon & Microsoft: relative stabilisers.
• Tesla: volatile, often resilient mid-month.
The McClellan seasonal overlay illustrates how Fed cuts, tariff shocks, and geopolitical surprises can distort the September path. This year’s critical dates include:
• Sept 5: US August payrolls, pivotal for Fed policy (89% cut probability).
• Sept 13–16: CPI, PPI, retail sales, sentiment surveys.
• Sept 16–17: Fed policy meeting.
• Sept 17–18: Trump UK visit and Bank of England decision.
Markets ended August on record highs (S&P 500 at 6,500+). Europe’s banks surged to post-GFC peaks, while AI-linked media stocks stumbled. September is the liquidity flush when managers rebalance.
📈 Broadcom (AVGO) Technical Setup
Broadcom trades at $297.39, right inside my entry zone ($316.89–$281.73).
• Resistance: $299.98.
• Support: $248.51, the key AI hardware level.
• Fibonacci retracement signals a multi-quarter correctional target near $96.12.
• Weekly chart: extended trend still intact.
• 4H chart: clustering at upper Bollinger/Keltner, flashing exhaustion.
Message from the charts: correction has started, but earnings could still fuel a short-lived test of resistance.
💰 Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast
• EPS: $1.65 vs $1.24 (+33.06% YoY).
• Revenue: $15.83B vs $13.07B (+21.06% YoY).
• EBIT: $9.95B vs $7.95B (+25.16% YoY).
Revenue has more than doubled since 2018 (16.7% CAGR). AVGO’s backbone role in AI networking is the growth driver.
📰 Recent Flow
• Analysts reaffirm buys, citing AI dominance.
• Nasdaq dip (-4.3%) showed short-term fragility, not structural weakness.
• Harbin automotive affiliate procurement irrelevant to AVGO.
🏦 Pelosi Factor
Nancy Pelosi exercised call options last year at $80, now holding 20,000 shares worth up to $5M. With gains over 70%, her position underscores institutional-level conviction.
🍏 Apple Partnership
Earlier this month, Apple pledged an additional $100 billion to U.S. manufacturing, bringing its total domestic commitment to $600 billion. CEO Tim Cook named Broadcom as a key partner in building Apple’s communications devices.
This link between Apple’s consumer hardware ecosystem and Broadcom’s hyperscaler relationships uniquely positions AVGO to straddle both consumer-facing electronics and enterprise AI infrastructure. Apple’s endorsement amplifies Broadcom’s credibility, while hyperscaler reliance cements its indispensable role in data movement, connectivity, and next-generation AI applications.
📊 AI Market Positioning
• Nvidia holds 92% of GPUs, but Broadcom owns the connectivity backbone.
• Hyperscalers (AWS, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba) rely on AVGO hardware.
• Apple’s infrastructure expansion reinforces Broadcom’s dual exposure to consumer electronics and enterprise AI build-outs.
This makes Broadcom an essential enabler of the AI era across the full technology stack.
🔮 Options & Analysts
• Options show bullish flow at $300/$320, hedges at $290/$240.
• Analysts: 29 buys, 12 recommend, 2 holds.
• PT range: $202–$400, mean $301.31, aligned with current levels.
Consensus: fairly valued short-term, but strategic AI positioning remains intact.
I believe the most likely outcome is that Broadcom will remain in the Flat range (-5% to +5%) into September 5, closing between $295 and $300. To frame it in probabilities: Flat 70%, Green (5% to 10%) 20%, Red (-10% to -5%) 10%.
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