[Stock Prediction] Alibaba Earnings: Rally or Selloff?

Tiger_Earnings
2025-08-27

Alibaba reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on August 29 after the U.S. market close. Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 253.4B (+4.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of RMB 15.82 (-3.8% YoY). Will AI-driven cloud growth spark a rally, or will massive local-commerce subsidies weigh on profits? $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$

🔍 Key Things to Watch

Alibaba Cloud revenue is expected to hit RMB 31.9B (+20% YoY), driven by rising AI demand. The company’s new Qwen3 model, AI-powered search tools, and broader product upgrades could keep Alibaba ahead of competitors.

Taotian Group (China commerce) is projected to deliver RMB 121.7B (+7.3% YoY), supported by better promotions and improved consumer demand. International commerce stays strong — RMB 34.8B (+19% YoY) — with AliExpress Choice, Lazada, and Trendyol pushing orders higher.

Flash sales are booming after a RMB 50B subsidy program, with 80M+ daily orders. But this aggressive spending is squeezing margins, and analysts are cautious about near-term profitability.

📊 Analyst Sentiment

  • Morgan Stanley: Price target cut to $150, citing heavy subsidy pressure on short-term earnings.

  • Benchmark: Buy, target $176; believes subsidies defend market share and bets on long-term AI+Cloud growth.

  • Mizuho: Neutral, target $149, warns margins could stay under pressure for several quarters.

Alibaba's earnings call will be held on 29 August 2025 at approximately at 19:30 SGT. To set a reminder, please click here

🏆 How to Participate

  • Post a comment predicting where Alibaba will close on Aug 28. If you get it right, you’ll share 1,000 Tiger Coins with other Tigers who guessed correctly!

  • For example, If 10 Tigers get the right answer, each will receive 100 Tiger Coins. If 100 Tigers get the right answer, each will receive 10 Tiger Coins.

  • Reply & share your insights about Alibaba’s Q2 earnings, and win 5 Tiger Coins instantly!

⏰Event Duration

  • August 27, 2025-August 29, 2025, 16:00 (SGT)

🔥Don't forget to follow@Tiger_Earnings, Tiger's official account for providing key information during earnings season📖📖📖

📖For a beginner's guide to financial statements, click here

Feel free to ask TigerAI for more information about earnings

How will BABA close 29/08 following their earnings?(Maximum1 votes)
  • Very Green (more than 10%)(14 votes)
  • Green (5% to 10%)(38 votes)
  • Flat (-5% to 5%)(40 votes)
  • Red (-10% to-5%)(12 votes)
  • Very Red (below-10%)(5 votes)
Alibaba: A Hold Till $150 or Take Profit After Super Boost?
Although food delivery is expected to weigh on profits, Alibaba delivered a positive surprise: the company has developed a new AI chip to fill the gap left by Nvidia in the Chinese market. The stock jumps 10%! FCF recorded a net outflow of RMB 18.815 billion, mainly reflecting increased spending on cloud infrastructure and investment in “Taobao Flash Sales.” ----------- Can AI become Alibaba’s next growth driver? Do you have confidence in Alibaba’s performance following this earnings report?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • WanEH
    2025-08-27
    WanEH
    我觉得阿里巴巴的财报应该不会有太大的惊喜，顶多和上个财报持平。所以感觉股价波动不大。 @Tiramisu2020
  • Shyon
    2025-08-27
    Shyon
    我看到阿里巴巴-SW的 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 盈利是增长和利润压力之间的平衡。云看起来很强劲，收入预计同比增长20%，Qwen3 plus人工智能工具的推出应该会保持阿里巴巴-SW的竞争力。我对这是一个长期驱动因素持乐观态度。

    500亿元人民币的补贴显然推动了巨大的订单量，但也挤压了利润。我理解捍卫市场份额的必要性，但投资者可能会保持谨慎，直到成本正常化。对我来说，更大的关注点是淘天和国际商业能否持续稳定增长。

    总体而言，这感觉是一个喜忧参半的季度。强劲的云数据可能会抵消疲软的利润率，但如果盈利能力令人失望，市场情绪可能会迅速转变。在增加更多敞口之前，我将关注补贴指导，但我仍然认为阿里巴巴-SW是长期的人工智能+云业务，而不是短期交易。 $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$

    @Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments

  • SPACE ROCKET
    2025-08-28
    SPACE ROCKET
    Alibaba's upcoming earnings release on August 29 is highly anticipated, with Wall Street analysts optimistic about a potential breakout quarter.r Here's what's driving the excitement:

    1. Strong Rally
    Alibaba's stock has surged 43% year-to-date, outperforming expectations.

    2. AI Cloud Growth
    The company's AI cloud business is surging, with aggressive investments in AI technology expected to drive long-term growth.

    3. International E-commerce
    Alibaba's international e-commerce segment is finally showing signs of profitability, contributing to the company's overall growth.

    4. Stimulus Tailwinds
    Government stimulus measures are boosting consumer spending, providing an additionaltailwind for Alibaba's business.

  • koolgal
    2025-08-28
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟It is crunch time for Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA)$ on August 29 and the anticipation is high.  After a strong rally of 43% year todate, Wall Street Analysts are optimistic that this could be the breakout quarter.

    AI cloud growth is surging, international ECommerce is finally looking profitable.  On top of that, stimulus tailwinds from the authorities are nudging increased consumer spending.

    I believe that Alibaba will close between up around 5%.

    It is time for Alibaba to shine 🌟🌟🌟😍😍😍

    @Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub

  • SPACE ROCKET
    2025-08-28
    SPACE ROCKET
    Analyst Expectations of Alibaba:

    Strong Buy Rating
    12 analysts have given Alibaba a "Strong Buy" rating, with a 12-month price target of $156.09, representing a 27.7% upside potential.

    Earnings Growth
    Analysts expect Alibaba's earnings to grow by 18.19% in the coming year, driven by strong performance in its core commerce and cloud businesses.

    Key Areas to Watch
    1. Cloud Revenue Growth
    Alibaba's cloud revenue growth will be closely watched, as it continues to invest heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure.

    2. Consumer Spending
    The impact of government stimulus measures on consumer spending will be crucial in determining Alibaba's earnings performance.

    3. AI Innovation
    Alibaba's AI innovation and its ability to integrate AI into its business will be key areas of focus for investors.

  • DiAngel
    2025-08-27
    DiAngel
    I not into HK stocks or BABA. Anyway, I just hope it is 🍀🍀
    @MHh @ELI_59 @rL @Wayneqq @melson
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