KKLEE
2025-06-30

U.S. markets are buzzing as Congress debates the so‑called “Great and Beautiful” budget act, a broad fiscal package packing tax relief and spending provisions. With key votes expected this week, investors are asking:

Could this act reshape markets—and what should you do now?

💵 What’s in the “Great and Beautiful” Act?

This legislation includes a mix of:

Impactful tax cuts, including exemptions on tips and overtime

Proposed remittance fees on cross-border payments

Extensions of the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts

Targeted funding for military, border security, and social programs

Offsetting measures like tariffs or spending reduction elsewhere to balance the budget

Despite the populist framing, it’s a serious fiscal package likely to influence consumer behavior, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment.

📉 Market Response So Far

Rotation into cyclicals: Banks, industrials, and energy stocks have warmed up to the idea of a fiscal boost.

Early tech selloffs: Some high-flying tech names pulled back as investors rebalanced bets.

Yield volatility: Treasury yields jumped on expectations of more deficit spending.

It’s classic “risk-where-the-money-goes” behavior—markets positioning around fiscal policy, not only monetary.

🔍 What to Watch This Week

Three key developments will shape the next move:

Passage or blockage: A decisive vote one way or another will guide short-term sector moves.

Final provisions: Specifics—like remittance fees and tax relief timing—will tweak corporate and consumer outlooks.

Fiscal vs monetary cues: The interplay of this bill with upcoming Fed commentary will steer bond spreads and equity valuations.

🎯 Investor Takeaways

Cyclicals opportunity: If the bill passes, financials, industrials, and airlines may benefit from rising economic activity.

Tech recalibration: Watch for rotation out of growth sectors—especially if yields remain elevated.

Bond yields: A larger deficit could push yields higher, impacting rate-sensitive stocks.

Defensive posture: If the act stalls, expect a choppy market and a resurgence in defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples.

🧭 Final Take

This is fiscal policy in action—not just economic storytelling. Whether the act passes or stalls, sector leaders will adjust swiftly, and traders should too.

Markets are already positioning around this policy swing. The question now is one of timing:

Will the vote this week spark a fresh move—or mark a major rebalancing point?

Great and Beautiful Bill Passes! Debt Problem Solved But More Troubles?
On the afternoon of July 3, the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump’s “Big and Beautiful” tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against. While the move helps avert a short-term government default, it further worsens the long-term U.S. debt situation. Will you buy the winners and ditch the losers? Or do you think the market impact will be limited?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JimmyHua
    2025-06-30
    JimmyHua
    像这样的政策转变提醒我保持多元化。如果法案通过,我将重新检查我的部门分配。[Thinking]
  • Kristina_
    2025-06-30
    Kristina_
    Hoping this doesn’t derail tech too much… but if yields spike, it might be bumpy for EVs and semis. Watching closely. 👀
  • AL_Ishan
    2025-06-30
    AL_Ishan
    所以我们得到了减税和市场戏剧?我们走吧😂可能会跳进一些银行或航空公司的游戏中取乐。
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