Regarding Pony.ai and WeRide, I’ve conducted some research and analysis for your reference.
First, the conclusion: In the Robotaxi sector, Pony.ai has greater growth potential, while WeRide may struggle to gain upward momentum.
1. Core Business
Pony.ai’s core business is software programming, whereas WeRide’s is automotive manufacturing. The former has lower marginal costs, offering more room for imagination in the investment market.
From their current operations, Pony.ai is more focused. It concentrates on the rapidly growing Robotaxi sector while also developing Robotruck, targeting China and the U.S. WeRide is more diversified, with five business lines: Robotaxi, Robobus (autonomous minibuses), Robovan (autonomous delivery vehicles), Robosweeper (autonomous sanitation vehicles), and ADAS solutions. Additionally, WeRide operates in 30 cities across nine countries.
For early-stage companies, excessive diversification in markets and products is a major pitfall, leading to high trial-and-error costs and undermining investor confidence.
Autonomous driving requires vast amounts of data and debugging. Pony.ai currently tests in four major Chinese cities, leveraging local advantages to access abundant scenarios at low costs. WeRide’s presence in 30 cities across nine countries incurs high PR expenses, limited testing scenarios, and elevated costs—key reasons its administrative expenses exceed R&D spending.
"WeRide’s sales and administrative expenses have far outpaced its R&D growth: over three years, its combined sales and administrative costs rose from RMB 261 million in 2022 to RMB 1.193 billion in 2024, while R&D expenses increased from RMB 759 million to RMB 1.091 billion. In contrast, Pony.ai’s combined sales and administrative expenses only grew from RMB 343 million in 2022 to RMB 408 million in 2024." (Caizhongshe)
The gap in R&D spending is stark: Pony.ai invested RMB 1.727 billion in 2024, while WeRide spent RMB 1.091 billion. The total loss disparity is also widening—WeRide lost RMB 5.764 billion over three years, compared to Pony.ai’s RMB 3.885 billion.
In terms of revenue, Pony.ai primarily earns from product sales (Robotruck contributed RMB 40.365 million, 53.8% of revenue), indicating product maturity and market adoption. WeRide relies on service revenue (RMB 22.913 million, 45.66% of total revenue), likely driven by PR and marketing efforts—effectively spending RMB 1 billion to earn RMB 22.913 million. Pony.ai is R&D-driven, while WeRide is sales-driven. Long-term, R&D-driven companies are more competitive.
2. Shareholder Composition
Pony.ai’s top 13 shareholders hold 74.75% of shares, indicating high concentration. Its institutional investors are high-quality, long-term, and globally diversified: Toyota (Japan), Sequoia (China), Ontario Pension (Canada), Morningstar (Hong Kong), IDG (U.S.), Fidelity (global asset manager), Baillie Gifford (Hong Kong hedge fund), Carlyle (U.S. PE), and BlackRock (world’s largest asset manager).
Long-term capital and concentrated holdings stabilize the stock price.
Pony.ai’s top 13 shareholders
WeRide’s top 13 shareholders hold 51.58%, with relatively dispersed ownership. Its institutional investors are weaker: major shareholders include Zhengzhou Yutong and Qiming (auto industry-backed). International investors are sparse—Bosch (Germany), Carlyle (U.S., hedging bets), Future Mobility (Korea), and Millennium (U.S.)—lacking long-term backers like pension funds or global asset managers.
WeRide’s top 13 shareholders
3. Valuation
WeRide’s current market cap is $1.831 billion, near historic lows.
Pony.ai’s market cap is $3.601 billion. Four trading days ago, Pony.ai was at a historic low of $1.434 billion, while WeRide was at $2.417 billion. Based on the analysis, Pony.ai was undervalued then, and WeRide overvalued.
Among U.S.-listed Chinese autonomous driving stocks, these two are the only ones I know. Currently, Pony.ai is the leader, and WeRide the runner-up. However, in a sector with only two stocks, the Matthew Effect may dominate—strengthening the strong and weakening the weak. The expected "leader rises, runner-up follows" scenario may not materialize or could be delayed.
4. Investment Outlook
1. WeRide’s worst-case scenario: If it mirrors Pony.ai’s low of $1.434 billion, WeRide could drop to $520 million.
2. Pony.ai’s potential: Benefiting from operational strengths and institutional support, it could stabilize above $3 billion and potentially reach $4–5 billion with market optimism.
3. Pony.ai’s risks: Robotaxi adoption in China may slow due to low taxi costs—ironically, WeRide’s advantage lies in high-cost markets, though progress there will be slow.
4. Insider insights: A former Hesai (Pony.ai’s LiDAR supplier) employee shared that Pony.ai’s purchases account for a small portion of Hesai’s business (10–15% from L4 autonomy). He doubts near-term L4 adoption, believing autonomous driving will eventually become a platform play dominated by internet giants. Whether Pony.ai or WeRide can survive until then is uncertain.
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