Buy Palantir Stock Before May 5 Earning?

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

Palantir is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the market closes on Monday, May 5th, and investors are asking one big question: Should you buy Palantir stock before earnings?

In this articles, I’ll walk you through that decision. I’ll also preview what to watch for in the upcoming report, especially around commercial momentum, profitability, and macro-driven demand. And, as always, I’ll share my proprietary discounted cash flow valuation model, revealing what I believe is Palantir’s true intrinsic value in today’s market. In other words — I’ll give you my perspective on whether Palantir is a buy right now, or if investors should sit tight and wait for a better entry.

Palantir: A Business in Acceleration Mode

Let’s talk about Palantir’s business fundamentals, which have been nothing short of impressive recently.

Over the past eight consecutive quarters, Palantir has been on a tear. The company’s growth story has evolved — it's no longer just a government contractor with a niche analytics platform. It’s now a full-blown AI-powered data intelligence company operating across both public and private sectors.

Here are some highlights from the last quarter:

• U.S. revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $558 million.

• Commercial revenue exploded by 64% YoY and 20% quarter-over-quarter to reach $214 million.

• Government revenue was up 45% YoY, hitting $343 million.

Those are strong numbers. But what’s more important — and frankly more exciting — is what these numbers signal: acceleration.

This isn’t just linear growth. The rate of growth is increasing. And in financial terms, that’s the “second derivative.” When revenue isn’t just rising, but accelerating, it usually signals growing organic demand and strong product-market fit.

The Big Opportunity: Commercial Expansion

For years, Palantir has been seen as a defense and intelligence-focused business. But today, that’s changing fast. The company is aggressively expanding into commercial enterprises — and that is where the real growth story lies.

Why? Because while the number of government agencies is finite — and their annual budgets are capped — the enterprise space is massive. There are millions of businesses globally, many of which are sitting on untapped data they don’t know how to leverage.

That’s where Palantir comes in.

The company closed a record $83 million in U.S. commercial contract value last quarter — up 134% YoY. And the total remaining deal value in its U.S. commercial pipeline sits at $1.8 billion, up 99% year-over-year.

This isn't just theoretical growth — these are signed contracts and booked opportunities.

The AI Advantage

Now, let’s talk AI. Because this is where Palantir really stands out.

Palantir’s strength lies in its ability to deliver enterprise intelligence through proprietary AI models — built not on public datasets like ChatGPT, but on a company’s own private, sensitive, and operational data.

This is AI that helps you run your business smarter — optimize operations, improve supply chains, reduce cost overruns, and spot risks before they become disasters.

This kind of AI is not cheap, and not every business can afford it. But Palantir is working to lower its cost-to-serve and become more accessible to mid-sized companies. That’s a huge deal, and it opens the door to potentially thousands of new clients.

To put it personally: I’d love to use Palantir in my own business. But right now, I probably couldn’t afford it. If I’m wrong, Palantir — reach out. I’d love to test it out and see what kind of insights your platform could help uncover.

Macro Watch: The Tariff Wildcard

One thing I’ll be listening for on the earnings call is how macro events are affecting demand, specifically the recent tariff announcements.

Are businesses pausing deals due to economic uncertainty? Or — and this is the more bullish scenario — are companies increasingly turning to Palantir for help navigating that uncertainty?

Think about it: tariffs introduce operational complexity. And when there’s complexity, businesses often look for software-driven solutions to make sense of it all.

If Palantir’s management team says they’re seeing more demand, not less, because of tariffs and economic volatility — that’s a very bullish signal. It would suggest Palantir’s platform is becoming a mission-critical tool for enterprises trying to plan through chaos.

The Valuation Problem

Here’s the catch — and it’s a big one. Palantir is a great business. But it’s also no secret.

Everyone knows Palantir is in the right business at the right time, with strong execution and visionary leadership. And because of that, the stock is currently priced at levels that reflect extreme optimism.

According to my DCF model, Palantir’s fair value today is around $24 per share. But the market is pricing it close to $94 per share — nearly 4x higher.

The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 169 (based on data from Finch). That’s a massive premium — and even though Palantir deserves a premium, this is beyond premium. This is bubble territory, and it’s pricing in perfect execution, sustained hypergrowth, and no economic hiccups.

When expectations are this high, there’s limited upside — but plenty of downside. A single disappointing line in the earnings report could trigger a 20–30% sell-off. And given where the valuation is, that wouldn’t be surprising.

Should You Buy Before Earnings?

In my view — no. The risk/reward here doesn’t make sense before earnings.

Sure, you might get lucky with a positive surprise, and the stock could pop. But the odds are not in your favor when the valuation is stretched, and the stock is priced for perfection.

My recommendation: Wait until after the earnings report. Digest the results. See how the market reacts. Re-run your valuation with updated numbers. And only then decide if you're comfortable buying shares at the current price.

If you’re a long-term investor and you’re adamant about owning Palantir, that’s fine — just be aware of the risks, especially around volatility and valuation compression.

Conclusion

Palantir is executing well and expanding rapidly into enterprise AI. The business fundamentals look strong, and macro conditions might even accelerate demand. But the stock is already priced as if everything will go perfectly, and that creates risk heading into earnings.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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