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04-19

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@Barcode：$Skechers USA(SKX)$ $Boot Barn(BOOT)$ $Steven Madden(SHOO)$ 👟 Forged in Tariff Fire: $SKX, $SHOO, $BOOT Chase Alpha Amid Global Chaos 🌐 Q1 2025 earnings aren’t just a checkpoint, they’re a crucible. Skechers U.S.A. ($SKX), reporting 24 April 2025, isn’t merely a stock, it’s a macro litmus test, poised to signal whether retail can defy tariff turbulence! Outshining Tesla’s $TSLA glare, $SKX’s results will reverberate across consumer discretionary. Flanked by Steve Madden ($SHOO) and Boot Barn ($BOOT), this footwear trio battles China’s chokehold, cost escalations, and shifting demand. Backed by billionaire titans, Bill Ackman and Warren Buffett, who’ve scooped $SKX alongside $UBER and $OXY, these names scream undervaluation. This analysis, a fusion of trading, real-time data, and rhetorical dynamite, maps the path to alpha. Lace up, traders: the hunt is on! 📈 🌏🇨🇳 China Exposure: The Supply Chain Quagmire Skechers ($SKX): China is $SKX’s manufacturing linchpin and a revenue powerhouse, though exact exposure is veiled. Q4 2024 China sales cratered 11% YoY to $333.5M, stung by 145% tariffs and anti-American backlash. The Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act (UFLPA) spikes compliance costs. CFO John Vandemore warned, “China’s scale is our Achilles’ heel.” Can $SKX rewire its supply chain before margins implode? Steve Madden ($SHOO): $SHOO slashed China imports from 71% to 58% in a quarter, targeting the low 40s% by November 2025. U.S. tariffs and anti-dumping duties from Malaysia and Mexico force a high-wire act. CEO Edward Rosenfeld vowed, “We’re rebuilding our supply chain at breakneck speed.” Will $SHOO’s pivot outpace inflationary shrapnel? Boot Barn ($BOOT): Sourcing 30% from China and 25% from Mexico, $BOOT’s balanced profile offers a shield, but Mexican tariffs loom. Can $BOOT’s niche grit sidestep the sector’s tariff inferno? 🚨 Tariff Commentary: Margins on the Brink Skechers ($SKX): UBS projects a $0.50-$1.00 EPS guidance cut from U.S. tariffs, with H2 2025 impacts intensifying. Currency fluctuations (FX) and global minimum tax rules tighten the noose. Vandemore cautioned, “Tariffs will erode margins without sourcing reform.” Will $SKX’s earnings call unveil a masterplan or expose vulnerabilities? Steve Madden ($SHOO): Tariffs are a “multi-front siege” for $SHOO, U.S. duties on 58% of China imports, plus anti-dumping tariffs from Malaysia and Mexico. Rosenfeld admitted, “Margins are under relentless pressure.” Can $SHOO’s pricing power and vendor deals defy the cost deluge? Boot Barn ($BOOT): $BOOT’s lower China exposure softens the blow, but Mexican tariffs threaten 25% of sourcing. Management pledges margin defence via price hikes, stating, “We’ll absorb costs internally.” Will $BOOT’s Western loyalists embrace higher prices, or bolt? 🛠️ Mitigation Strategies: Crafting Resilience Skechers ($SKX): $SKX is shifting production to Vietnam and Southeast Asia, securing vendor cost-sharing, optimising pricing, and stockpiling pre-tariff inventory. Capex surges past $600M-$700M, with OpEx up 11% in Q4 2024. UBS hails $SKX’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) engine, 62% of 2023 sales, eyeing 67% by 2026. Can $SKX’s global brand and operational hustle outmanoeuvre macro chaos? Steve Madden ($SHOO): $SHOO is diversifying to Cambodia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico, locking in vendor concessions, and hiking prices surgically. Pre-tariff inventory shields sales. Rosenfeld dubbed the global network a “strategic bulwark.” Will $SHOO’s execution fortify profits or buckle under costs? Boot Barn ($BOOT): $BOOT tests new sourcing hubs, streamlines logistics, and wields pricing power in its Western niche. Its lean playbook minimises disruption. Can $BOOT’s quiet efficiency ignite explosive alpha? 📊 Financial Metrics & Sentiment: Alpha Amid the Noise Skechers ($SKX): At $47.63 ($48.43 post-market), $SKX’s $7.26B market cap is a steep fall from its $78.85 peak. Q1 2025 EPS is forecast at $1.18 (-11.3% YoY) on $2.44B revenue (+8.3% YoY), but a -1.54% Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) signal turbulence. Analyst downgrades, Evercore ($78→$60), UBS ($65→$64), Stifel ($80→$62), and rising short interest reflect tariff fears. Last quarter’s -12.16% EPS miss lingers. Is $SKX a coiled spring or a value mirage? Steve Madden ($SHOO): $SHOO’s 2024 revenue soared 15.2% to $2.28B, but net income slipped 1.3% to $169.4M. 2025 guidance: EPS of $2.30-$2.40, revenue up 17-19%. Its sourcing pivot earns praise, but tariffs loom. Can $SHOO’s growth outrun transition costs? Boot Barn ($BOOT): $BOOT’s niche resilience, pricing power, diversified sourcing, shines under the radar. Sparse metrics belie its low-beta potential. Is $BOOT the sector’s stealth alpha engine? 🌍 Sector Shockwaves: Tariffs Rewrite the Rules Tariffs are gut-punching footwear margins, Crocs ($CROX), Nike ($NKE), Deckers ($DECK), and On Holding ($ONON) all face EPS erosion. A Bloomberg memo revealed Crocs slashing expenses amid trade war “volatility.” Nike’s China sales plummeted 17%. Yet, $SKX and $CROX resonate with workers, seniors, and Gen Z adventurers using Crocs for river crossings. Buffett and Ackman’s $SKX bets scream value. Can $SKX’s universal appeal forge recession-proof alpha? Technically, $SKX coils in a $46-$49 range, with $41-$42 as a snapback zone if $38 support fails. A $47.5 call option premium of $23,970 signals speculative fire. RSI’s rebound from oversold hints at momentum. Are traders priming for a breakout or hedging a crash? 🔮 Comprehensive Viewpoint: Alpha in the Crucible Skechers ($SKX) is the sector’s crucible. Its DTC dominance, international surge (67% of sales by 2026), and value brand, praised by UBS’s Jay Sole as “a market-share predator”, scream upside. But tariffs, capex bloat, and a bearish Earnings ESP (-1.54%) loom. Will $SKX’s 24 April call unleash a rally or cement bearish traps? Steve Madden ($SHOO) is a strategic maestro, slashing China exposure and projecting 17-19% revenue growth in 2025. Yet, layered tariffs and transition costs threaten. Can $SHOO’s agility sculpt sustainable alpha? Boot Barn ($BOOT) is the silent assassin, with lower China reliance and pricing power in a loyal niche. Mexican tariffs are a wildcard, but its nimbleness dazzles. Could $BOOT emerge as the sector’s low-volatility king? 📢 Tiger Traders, the footwear frontier is a high-octane alpha hunt. Dive deeper with these reads: • Skechers’ Tariff Gambit • Steve Madden’s Supply Chain Overhaul • Tariffs’ Retail Reckoning Share this post to spark trading wars and seize alpha. What’s your play on $SKX, $SHOO, or $BOOT? Drop your edge below! 👇 🥾 The Sole of Supremacy: In the tariff-forged footwear arena, $SKX, $SHOO, and $BOOT aren’t just surviving, they’re redefining victory. Skechers storms globally, Steve Madden pivots with surgical grace, and Boot Barn treads with lethal stealth. As trade wars rage, one truth reigns: adaptability isn’t a tactic, it’s the adamantium core of alpha🌟 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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