🚨🚨Global Equity Markets Today 4 Feb

US Markets

  - **S&P 500**: Fell 0.76% amid tariff volatility, with tech stocks like Nvidia facing pressure from AI competition (e.g., China’s DeepSeek) .  

  - **Nasdaq**: Dropped 1.2%, weighed down by tariff uncertainty and concerns over high valuations in AI-driven sectors .  

  - **Dow Jones**: Declined 0.28%, dragged by Boeing (-3%) amid renewed safety audits and weak guidance from industrials .  

Asia/Europe

  - **Hang Seng**: Rebounded 9% from recent lows, supported by a pause in USD strength and improved Chinese policy measures .  

  - **ASX 200 (Australia)**: Rose 0.19% to 8,395 as tariff delays on Canada/Mexico eased tensions. Mining (Rio Tinto +2.15%) and tech stocks (Appen +8.4%) led gains .  

  - **Indian Markets**: Sensex surged 500 points, driven by strong earnings (e.g., NLC India +12%) and fiscal stimulus optimism .  

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Volatile, initially rallying 1% on tariff announcements before retracing to 108.41 (-0.1%) after delays. Focus shifts to JOLTS Job Openings data (forecast: 7.88M) .  

- **EUR/USD**: Testing support at 1.0200, with bullish technical signals suggesting a potential rebound toward 1.0600 if Fed dovishness persists .  

- **USD/JPY**: Stabilized near 155.40 but faces downside risks from BOJ’s quantitative tightening plans .  

- **AUD & NZD**: Under pressure due to weak Australian retail sales (-0.1% MoM) and expectations of RBNZ rate cuts .  

Commodities

- **Oil**: Brent crude flat at $75.51 amid OPEC+ output hikes and US inventory builds. Trump’s vow to reduce oil prices adds medium-term bearish pressure .  

- **Gold**: Hit a record high of $2,814.50/oz as safe-haven demand surged on geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty .  

- **Silver**: Outperformed gold, breaking above $30 resistance with potential to target $32–$33 .  

Key Events & Data Today

1. **JOLTS Job Openings**: A miss below 7.88M could weaken the USD and bolster gold .  

2. **US-China Tariff Deadline**: New 10% tariffs on Chinese goods may trigger Wednesday if no deal is reached, risking ASX 200 and AUD volatility .  

3. **Earnings**: Apple (+4% pre-market) reported record iPhone 16 sales, while Palantir’s strong results boosted global tech stocks .  

Key Risks & Trends

- **Tariff Volatility**: Trump’s tariff reversals (e.g., delays for Canada/Mexico) continue to whipsaw markets, with a 10% China tariff pending .  

- **AI Sector Pressure**: DeepSeek’s cost-efficient AI models threaten US chipmakers, raising concerns about semiconductor demand and capital expenditure .  

- **Fed Policy**: Sticky inflation (PCE at 2.4% for 2024) limits rate-cut expectations, with only two 25-bp cuts projected in 2025 .  

Notable Stock Movements

- **Apple (AAPL)**: +4% pre-market on strong iPhone 16 sales and services growth (revenue: $26.3B, +14% YoY) .  

- **Boeing (BA)**: -3% after FAA expanded 737 MAX safety probes .  

- **Indian Small-Caps**: Paisalo Digital (+9%) and NLC India (+12%) surged on robust earnings .  

Technical Outlook

- **S&P 500**: Bearish reversal below pivot 6,039.40; support at 5,923.40 .  

- **Bitcoin**: Testing pivot at $103,087; break below $98,903 could trigger deeper correction .  

- **Gold**: Bullish above $2,658 resistance; next target at $2,850–$2,933 .  

- **ASX 200**: Uptrend intact above 8,380 support; resistance at 8,650 .  

Conclusion: 

Markets remain hypersensitive to geopolitical and policy shifts, particularly US-China tariffs and Fed signals. Tech earnings (Apple, Palantir) and defensive assets (gold) are key focal points, while equities face headwinds from crowded positioning and valuation risks .

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