The Self-Perpetuating Profit Machine: Why Palantir's 388 P/E Might Be "Cheap"

Jacob X
02-04 09:22

Wall Street analysts often miss the forest for the trees. While they fixate on traditional metrics like P/E ratios, they might be overlooking something extraordinary developing at $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  : the potential emergence of the world's first self-optimizing corporation.

The Five Pillars of Infinite Margins

1. The Meta-Software Revolution

Imagine software that manages itself. Palantir's Apollo platform isn't just managing client operations—it's perfectly positioned to manage Palantir itself. Every optimization it learns from thousands of client deployments can be turned inward, creating a corporation that continuously improves its own efficiency. Labor costs? Declining. Operational overhead? Minimizing. Decision-making? Optimizing.


2. The AI Feedback Supercycle

Here's where it gets interesting. Palantir's AIP isn't just another AI platform—it's potentially the world's most sophisticated corporate nervous system. Every client interaction, every data point, every decision feeds back into improving its own capabilities. The more clients use it, the smarter it gets. The smarter it gets, the more clients want it. It's a perpetual motion machine of value creation.


3. The Asset Management Revolution

Traditional companies manage assets. Palantir could let AI manage its assets. Imagine Treasury management that:

Perfectly times asset purchases (e.g. gold)

Optimizes cash deployment

Predicts market movements using client data

Executes trades with zero human intervention

Your typical company has a treasury department. Palantir could have an AI-driven profit center.


4. The Energy Arbitrage Opportunity

Data centers aren't just costs anymore. With Apollo's optimization capabilities, Palantir could:

Sell excess compute capacity

Trade energy credits

Optimize for grid payments

Generate carbon credits

What was once a massive cost center could become yet another profit stream.


5. The Zero-Marginal-Cost Future

Here's the kicker: Each new client adds near-zero marginal cost. The software improves itself, manages itself, and optimizes itself. Traditional corporate functions become automated. Human oversight becomes minimal. The result? Margins that could theoretically exceed 100%.


The Virtuous Cycle

Picture this sequence:

1. Client uses Palantir software

2. Usage generates data

3. Data improves AI capabilities

4. Improved AI optimizes operations

5. Lower costs = higher margins

6. Higher margins fund expansion

7. Expansion brings more clients

8. Cycle repeats, accelerating each time


Why Wall Street Might Be Wrong

The market sees Palantir as a software company. But what if it's actually the prototype for a new kind of corporation—one that's self-improving, self-managing, and potentially self-aware from a business perspective?

A 388 P/E ratio assumes normal business scaling. But there's nothing normal about a company that could:

Reduce operational costs to near-zero through self-optimization

Generate multiple revenue streams from the same infrastructure

Turn every traditional cost center into a profit center

Achieve theoretically infinite margins through perfect scaling

Palantir's Q4 2024 earnings per share (EPS) jumped 75% to $0.14, with revenue reaching $828 million, marking 36% year-over-year growth. Its U.S. commercial revenue surged by 64%, while government contracts expanded by 45%. For Q1 2025, Palantir projects revenue between $858 million and $862 million, exceeding analysts' expectations.


The Bear Case (And Why It Might Be Wrong)

Critics will point to:

High valuation multiples

Competition in the AI space

Execution risks

But they're missing the bigger picture. Palantir isn't just building better software—it's potentially creating an entirely new kind of company. One where:

Every client makes the system exponentially more valuable

Every deployment improves operational efficiency

Every data point enhances asset management

Every optimization reduces costs further


The Bottom Line

Could Palantir fail to achieve this vision? Absolutely. But if they succeed, even partially, today's seemingly rich valuation could prove to be remarkably cheap. We're not just valuing a software company—we're potentially valuing the prototype for the corporation of the future.

Remember: The market isn't always efficient at pricing paradigm shifts. And if Palantir succeeds in creating a self-optimizing, self-improving corporate entity, this could be one of the biggest paradigm shifts in business history.

Invest accordingly.

Disclaimer: This is speculative analysis. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

@Tiger_comments  

Modified in.02-04 11:18
Palantir Soars 20% After Beats! Next PT is $150?
Palantir shares rocket 22% after company posts strong earnings and outlook Earnings per share: 14 cents adjusted vs. 11 cents expected Revenue: $828 million vs. $776 million expected Palantir offered better-than-expected guidance. The company said it expects revenue of between $858 million and $862 million, ahead of an LSEG estimate of $799 million. ------------- After surging 30% this year, Will Palantir continue to outperform? What's your target price for Palantir with lifted guidance? Can Palantir double again in 2025?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Emotional Investor
    02-04 10:29
    Emotional Investor
    I was late getting on the palantir train, $69. Mainly because i didn’t get the company. Love the way your article explains them, great job.
    • Emotional InvestorReplyJacob X
      Exactly :)
    • Jacob XReplyEmotional Investor
      I think part of the problem is that interviewers don't even know what to ask Alex. I know I wouldn't 😂. Maybe we should just all be quiet and let him write ✍️
    • Emotional InvestorReplyJacob X
      Im really looking forward to Alex’s new book, a definite buy for me. In some of his speeches I’ve watched i have not been impressed but i guess hes not the greatest public speaker. No problem, im picking alot of nuggets will be in his book giving insight. He definitely writes insanely better than orally.
    • Jacob X
      Thanks, it's fascinating and I certainly don't claim to fully understand exactly what PLTR is capable of either! <br>
      At some point, I think we will need exponential (instead of linear) price charts for certain stocks and PLTR is a possible target 🎯 🧐
  • SuperDuper1
    02-04 13:31
    SuperDuper1
    Another spin. if u look at Palantir’s Q4 presentation, income from operations fell
    90% QoQ to $11m. They have adjusted earnings to write back stock based compensation , which in q4 was $282m, almost double that of q3. This is deceptive . Stock based compensation is an actual cost to shareholders as it is dilutive.
    Next billing’s for Q4 actually declined QoQ, which throws into question the growth narrative .
    Finally on FCF, the company generated $1.15b in FCF in 2024, without excluding stock compensation. Compare that with the market cap of $190b and one would realise that the stock trades at a ridiculous 166x FCF.
Leave a comment
6
6