My final Tesla 4Q EPS estimate-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

My final Tesla 4Q EPS estimate is $0.76/share, implying +6.6% quarter-on-quarter and +7.3% year-on-year. This is significantly lower than my October 2024 estimate.

[As shared with subscribers beginning of January]

Primary drivers vs October expectation comprise:

1. Volume significantly below 515K guided.

2. Unprecedented sales incentives which intensified globally throughout the quarter driving significant average selling price pressure.

3. Slowdown in CT sales growth making Tesla's annual CT sales rate target (almost) unachievable, resulting in less favourable mix.

4. Significant evidence (but not certainty) energy margin decreases in 4Q due to ramping low-cost competition and other.

The attached thread lays out all key assumptions and explains the key effects of the metrics Tesla disclosed on January 2, 2025.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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