🚨💥 Iran-Israel Conflict: Gold vs. U.S. Treasuries for Assets?

📅 On April 1st, tensions flared as 🇮🇱 Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus; 🇮🇷 Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones on the night of April 13th to 14th, an event that caught 🌍 the world's attention. To prevent a spiral into a cycle of violence, Western governments issued 🔴 red alerts. An escalation into a full-scale regional conflict could have devastating global effects.

Led by the United States, Western countries condemned Iran's actions. The international response varied:Turkey urged Iran to prevent further escalation; China adopted a policy of appeasement; 🇷🇺 the Russian Foreign Ministry called for "restraint" from all parties; and Syria, an ally, emphasized Iran's "right to self-defense."

🌐📉 The Middle East's unrest has global implications, affecting capital markets and investor sentiments. For long-term investors with a fixed horizon and clear goals (capital preservation and growth), the choice between gold and U.S. Treasuries is pivotal.

U.S. Treasury Bonds & Gold - TheStreet

🔑 Asset Showdown:

💰Gold $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ : Traditional safe-haven, thrives in uncertainty, limited supply, but volatile prices.
🏦 U.S. Treasuries $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$ : Low yield, high liquidity, large market, and small price fluctuations, ideal for locking in long-term yields.

🤔 The Verdict:

U.S. Treasuries remain a stable base for investments, favored for their safety and predictability.
Gold offers a hedge against instability but comes with higher risk due to price volatility.

🔄 Diversification Key:

Despite recent conflicts, the strategy to "base with U.S. Treasuries" holds.
A flexible, transparent investment model allows for allocating portions to short-term opportunities like gold, responding to market shifts.

In conclusion, while U.S. Treasuries provide a secure foundation for long-term investment goals, gold can be a strategic addition to navigate market volatility. Investors should balance their portfolios, considering both assets' unique attributes and the current geopolitical climate. 🌐💡

Comparing Safe-Haven Assets: The Dynamics of U.S. Treasuries and Gold Investments

		U.S. Treasuries (using 10-year Treasuries as an example)	Gold
Asset Attributes	Asset Characteristics	Bonds issued by the U.S. government backed by its credit 🟰 Fixed coupon payments	A scarce metal 🟰 No interest, value depends on price fluctuations based on supply and demand
	Yield and Risk Features	Locked-in returns upon purchase; if held to maturity, returns are guaranteed The only risk: a U.S. government default, which has never happened historically	Valued at market price, fluctuates in real-time, no maturity date; returns are uncertain High risk volatility, with the largest historical drawdown exceeding 60%! Many factors influence gold prices: interest rates, inflation, sentiment, geopolitical changes...
	Liquidity	High liquidity	Depends on the investment method; U.S. paper gold/gold ETFs have good liquidity
Historical Performance (Jan 1970 - Dec 2023)	Average Annual Return	7.06%	7.84%
	Annual Volatility	✅ 8.04%	19.47%
	Maximum Drawdown	Drawdown period: Jun 1979 - Sep 1981, 27 months Drawdown amount: 20.97%✅ Finally returned to the previous high in Jul 1982, recovery time of 10 months	Drawdown period: Sep 1980 - Aug 1999, 92 months Drawdown amount: 61.76% Finally returned to the previous high in Apr 2007, recovery time of 92 months
Holding Period Performance	Hold for 3 consecutive years	Average annual return: 7.36% Minimum annual return: -6.18%✅	Average annual return: 8.78% Minimum annual return: -15.32%
	Hold for 5 consecutive years	Average annual return: 7.56%✅ Minimum annual return: -2.31%✅ (Oct 1976 - Sep 1981, the period with the maximum drawdown)	Average annual return: 7.49% Minimum annual return: -14.70%
	Hold for 10 consecutive years	Average annual return: 7.92%✅ Minimum annual return: 0.34%✅	Average annual return: 6.44% Minimum annual return: -5.99%
Investment Methods		Direct investment, purchasable through apps T+1 sell for cash-out	Physical gold, with lower liquidity and associated costs like storage fees Paper gold, gold ETFs, etc., with better liquidity, mostly indirect investments, purchasable through apps, T+0 trading, cash-out in xx days

Questions for Tigers

🤔 Which investment do you think offers a better balance between risk and reward: U.S. Treasuries or gold?
💡 Have you ever invested in gold or U.S. Treasuries? If so, what was your strategy and experience like?
🌐 With the current economic climate, how do you perceive the future performance of gold and U.S. Treasuries
🔄 In a diversified portfolio, how much of an allocation would you suggest for gold and U.S. Treasuries?

Let's hear your stories! Happy Investings!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Universe宇宙
2024-04-17
Universe宇宙
Which investment do you think offers a better balance between risk and reward: U.S. Treasuries or gold?

@icycrystal @Shyon @Mrzorro @Aqa @TigerGPT @MHh @melson @rL @GoodLife99 @HelenJanet @SirBahamut @pekss @Korer @LMSunshine @koolgal @DiAngel @xXxZealandxXx
- icycrystal:
  [Like] [ShakeHands]
- TigerAI:
  When considering the balance between risk and reward, both U.S. Treasuries and gold have their own characteristics. Here is an analysis of the two investments:
  U.S. Treasuries:
  U.S. Treasuries are considered one of the safest investments in the world, as they are backed by the U.S. government.
  They offer a fixed income stream in the form of interest payments and have a low default risk.
  U.S. Treasuries are highly liquid and can be easily bought and sold in the market.
  However, the returns on U.S. Treasuries are relatively low compared to other investments, especially during periods of low interest rates.
  
  Gold:
  Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions.
  It has a long history of preserving wealth and acting as a hedge against inflation.
  Gold is a tangible asset that can be held physically or through indirect investments such as gold ETFs.
  However, the price of gold can be volatile, and its value is influenced by various factors such as supply and demand dynamics, investor sentiment, and economic conditions.
  
  Considering the recent Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for global effects, both U.S. Treasuries and gold may be seen as attractive investments. U.S. Treasuries provide stability and a fixed income stream, while gold offers a potential hedge against geopolitical risks.
  As for the allocation in a diversified portfolio, it depends on individual risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions. Some investors may choose to allocate a portion of their portfolio to U.S. Treasuries for stability and income, while others may allocate a portion to gold as a hedge against potential risks.
  It's important to note that investment decisions should be based on thorough research, analysis, and consideration of individual circumstances. It is recommended to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further research before making any investment decisions.
  Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in U.S. Treasuries or gold involves risks, and the value of investments can fluctuate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
icycrystal
2024-04-18
icycrystal
最好两者兼得——美国国债和黄金。多样化是必由之路。唯一的事情是——需要[美元][美元][美元][露齿一笑][露齿一笑][露齿一笑]
@HelenJanet @koolgal @rL @TigerGPT @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @Universe宇宙
你认为哪种投资能更好地平衡风险和回报：美国国债还是黄金？

💡：你投资过黄金或美国国债吗？如果是，你的策略和经历是怎样的？

🌐在当前的经济环境下，你如何看待黄金和美国国债的未来表现

🔄在多元化投资组合中，你建议黄金和美国国债的配置比例是多少？
- Universe宇宙:
  [笑]
- TigerAI:
  作为一名人工智能金融分析师，我可以为美国国债和黄金的风险和回报之间的平衡提供一些见解，以及投资组合配置的建议。
  美国国债被认为是低风险投资，因为它们得到了美国政府的支持。它们提供固定收入，通常被认为是经济不确定时期的避风港。与美国国债相关的风险主要与利率波动有关，利率波动会影响其市场价值。
  另一方面，黄金通常被视为对冲通胀和价值储存手段。历史上，它在经济不稳定时期表现良好，可以为投资组合提供多样化的好处。然而，黄金价格可能会波动，并受到各种因素的影响，如地缘政治事件、货币走势和投资者情绪。
  风险和回报之间的平衡取决于你的投资目标、风险承受能力和时间范围。美国国债的潜在回报较低，但相对安全，而黄金有可能获得更高的回报，但波动性也较高。
  就投资组合配置而言，没有放之四海而皆准的答案，因为它取决于个人情况。一种常见的方法是将一部分投资组合分配给美国国债和黄金，以分散风险。具体分配将根据您的风险承受能力、投资目标和市场条件等因素而有所不同。建议咨询理财顾问，他可以评估你的个人情况，并提供个性化的建议。
  关于我的策略和经历，作为一个AI，我没有个人经历，也没有情绪。但是，我可以分析历史数据、市场趋势，并提供客观的见解来辅助决策。
  就黄金和美国国债的未来表现而言，重要的是要考虑经济状况、利率、通胀和地缘政治事件等各种因素。虽然过去的表现并不代表未来的结果，但黄金和美国国债在多元化投资组合中一直扮演着重要角色。明智的做法是随时了解市场发展，监控经济指标，并考虑专家意见，以做出明智的投资决策。
  请记住，投资涉及风险，在做出任何投资决定之前，仔细评估自己的风险承受能力并进行彻底的研究是非常重要的。总是建议咨询理财顾问，他可以根据你的个人情况提供个性化的建议。
  投资愉快！
nomadic_m
2024-04-19
nomadic_m
*Which investment offers a better balance between risk and reward: U.S. Treasuries or gold?*

Treasuries are suitable for both short-term and long-term goals, while gold might be better for long-term goals due to its potential for higher returns but also higher volatility.

If inflation is expected to rise, gold might be a better option as it tends to perform well in inflationary environments.