The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0928 ET - While the Fed is laser-focused on inflation, wage growth shouldn't be a concern, Oxford Economics writes. Rising energy prices have dented workers' real earnings growth, but with oil prices down sharply, that should start to ease soon. Oxford predicts average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month in June in the upcoming jobs report. This would leave year over year earnings growth at 3.5% well within a range consistent with the Fed's inflation target, they said. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0926 ET - Investors in U.K. government bonds, or gilts, have near-term reassurance that the potential next prime minister, Andy Burnham, will maintain fiscal prudence following his speech on Monday, Aberdeen Investments' Alex Everett says in a note. Burnham outlined an ambitious plan to reduce welfare expenditure, which signals some willingness to take challenging decisions, Everett says. "With such a focus on investment and improvement spending, the re-affirmation of prudence was welcome at this relatively early stage," he says. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1 basis point to last trade at 4.723%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0924 ET - The euro could struggle to recover unless there is a significant improvement in eurozone economic activity data, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Changing levels of enthusiasm for the euro since last year have played an underestimated role in the movements of the euro-dollar exchange rate, she says. The market was betting on a stronger euro until the Iran war weakened the eurozone growth outlook, she says. Without much improved eurozone data, it will be difficult for euro traders to regain optimism. In contrast, the dollar should remain supported by a better-than-expected labor market, a resilient consumer sector and strong inflows into U.S. stocks, she says. The euro rises 0.2% to $1.1408. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0919 ET - After three solid months, BofA Securities expects June payrolls to rise by a robust 110,000, supported by benign claims and strong ADP data. However, they see downside risks. May's surge in leisure and hospitality may have been driven by the World Cup or Memorial Day timing. If it was the latter, June could see payback. "A strong report would likely move markets closer to our call for three hikes in '26," they added. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0919 ET - Prospective future British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's plans to spread growth outside London and throughout U.K. regions must see money spent to boost local growth and not mean further costs on business, says Shevaun Haviland, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce. "It's crucial that the devolution agenda has local business at its heart." Creating greater parity between academic and technical qualifications--one of Burnham's plans set out in a speech Monday--is something business wholeheartedly supports, Haviland says. A pledge to improve public procurement is also welcome. But new local business taxes and visitor levies would stifle economic growth. "Firms need consistency, clarity and stability from policymakers, if business confidence is to be improved," she adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0905 ET - The front-runner for the U.K. prime minister role, Andy Burnham, in his speech on Monday showed commitment to fiscal measures, calming investor concerns about possible shift to looser rules, Barclays Jack Meaning and Cian Hennigan say in a note. "There was no sense of trying to find ways to game the rules or increase borrowing, which would have worried markets," the economists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall to last trade at 4.728% following the speech, from 4.745% beforehand, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0903 ET - The Federal Reserve is expected to stay on hold in the coming meetings, Amundi Investment Institute says in its midyear outlook. "With the monetary policy stance now broadly back to neutral, we think it is most likely that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold in coming meetings," it says. The risk of rate hikes would, however, increase if higher energy costs feed into broader prices and economic growth accelerates, Amundi says. "We expect a resumption of the disinflationary trend in 2027 to allow the Fed to cut rates next year," it says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0858 ET - The change of chair at the Federal Reserve might usher in a new phase for the world's largest central bank, Amundi Investment Institute says in its midyear outlook. "Under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Fed may consider reforms that could not only change the way monetary policy is conducted, but also how the Central Bank interacts with the Treasury," it says. This comes at a delicate moment, with the Fed having to defend its independence while navigating a complex inflation, growth and fiscal backdrop, Amundi says. The most immediate challenge is where to set interest rates in light of the Fed's dual inflation and employment mandate, the asset manager says. "The cycle is harder to read than in the past." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0846 ET - Seasonality factors suggest a small window for the 10-year Italian BTP-German Bund yield spread to widen in July followed by a tightening, Morgan Stanley rates strategists say in a note. "Our framework points to a short widening in 10-year BTP-Bund [yield spread] at the start of the month (the median is approximately 4 basis points) followed by a tightening phase lasting into mid-September, with a median move of around approximately 8bp," they say. The 10-year BTP-Bund yield spread is currently 78 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0843 ET - Sterling and U.K. government bonds have welcomed remarks about the need for sound finances by Andy Burnham, who is expected to succeed U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, ING's Chris Turner says. However, Burnham is yet to set out details on his plans to alter spending commitments and how those changes will be paid for, he says. "That could create headwinds for U.K. asset markets later this year." Sterling rises 0.3% to a near one-week high of $1.3240, according to LSEG. The euro falls 0.1% to an intraday low of 0.8612 pounds. The 10-year gilt yield is lower, last trading at 4.731%, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0840 ET - Demand for U.S. government debt weakens and Treasury yields rise, as U.S. and Iran agree to halt fighting while negotiating a deal to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices edge higher but remain around pre-war levels. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect June job creation to slow to 118,000 from May's 172,000. Payrolls are due Thursday as the week is shortened by Friday's Independence Day holiday. The WSJ Dollar Index falls slightly. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.390%, up from 4.372% Friday. The two-year rises to 4.119% from 4.087%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0826 ET - U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are likely to experience improved performance due to easing inflation concerns as energy prices drop, eToro's Lale Akoner says. Oil prices have dropped significantly since the U.S.-Iran peace deal reached in mid-June. As a result, investors have lowered their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in the coming months and currently price in an 84% probability of a BOE rate hike in December, while they fully priced in a one-quarter-point BOE rate rise prior to the Middle East peace deal, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2026 09:28 ET (13:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments