SpaceX completed one of the largest IPOs in U.S. history, but this milestone event caused a rare extreme disagreement on Wall Street-from the target price of $190 to the "fair value" only half of the IPO price, the valuation divide between analysts reflects the market's fundamental dispute over the space company's business logic.
Looking at the camp: optimistic about the vision and monopoly position of "space + AI"
Oppenheimer: Gives an optimistic expectation and sets a price target of $190. They believe that SpaceX has the ability to make technological breakthroughs, and dismantle its valuation logic into "Starlink provides cash flow anchor, Starship acts as cost switch, and Space AI data center acts as forward call option".
New Street Research: Equally positive, giving a price target of $165.
Goldman Sachs recently said that it is extremely optimistic about the long-term growth of SpaceX's AI business, predicting that its total revenue will reach 474 billion USD by 2030, of which AI-related revenue will reach 322 billion USD.
Evan Schlossman, venture capitalist at Suro Capital: He believes that the opening surge proves that the market has a strong demand for iconic enterprises that promote innovation. These companies have accumulated extremely high market expectations after maintaining privatization for a long time.
Seth Hickle, Chief Investment Officer, Mindset Wealth Management: Noting that demand far exceeds supply, many investors see investing in SpaceX as "the closest opportunity to investing in railroads during the Industrial Revolution" and are willing to pay a "Musk premium" for it.
Bearish Camp: Questioning Valuation Overdrafts and Financial Losses
CFRA: Issued its first "sell" rating from a mainstream institution on IPO day, with a price target of only $115 (a discount of about 14.8% to the offering price). The core reason is that the valuation is seriously overdrawn, and Starlink's profits are eaten by xAI and Starship, two "gold-swallowing beasts", and AI business lacks differentiated competitiveness.
Morningstar: Analyst Nicolas Owens estimates that SpaceX's fair value is only $780 billion, or $60 per share, less than half of the IPO pricing, according to a discounted cash flow model. He believes that xAI business may become a "value damage factor", and the probability of success of space AI data center is only 7%.
Aswath Damodaran, the "Godfather of Valuation" of New York University: He bluntly said that the true valuation should be about $1.3 trillion (equivalent to about $99 per share), thinking that the current pricing is too high.
Jim Chanos, a senior short seller: He commented mercilessly: "No reasonable business assumption can value this company at $1.75 trillion in five years. It depends on 'hope and dream'."
Todd Schoenberger, Chief Investment Officer of Crosscheck Management: Thinks that the current retail interest is ridiculously high, but people are actually "trading" rather than "investing" in SpaceX, trying to profit from the premium in the news headlines, and the trend in a few weeks is doubtful.
Warning on Trading Structure and Market Risks
JPMorgan Chase: Warning that SpaceX listing will have a significant "siphon effect". As passive funds face the pressure of forced position adjustment, the market may need to draw nearly $950 billion of liquidity from existing technology giants to match the weight of SpaceX, which may lead to a drastic adjustment of the three major U.S. stock indexes.
Joe Maher, Market Economist at Capital Economics: Pointing out that giant IPOs such as SpaceX will unleash a wave of equity supply. A surge in stock offerings is not only a sign of speculation reaching a frenzy, but an increase in supply could overwhelm investor demand, driving down overall stock prices.
Columbia Business School Professor Shivaram Rajgopal: Defined 2026 as the "year of mega IPOs" and warned that it could hint that the bubble spawned by low interest rates and unrealistic expectations of AI since the financial crisis has reached its peak.
The Motley Fool: Issued a criticism of The IPO's transaction structure as "one of The biggest sacks of retail investors in history." It is pointed out that the extremely low circulation and the revision of index rules are to allow insiders to cash out during the August unlocking period, leaving retail investors to bear the loss of high valuation.
Corporate Governance Concerns
Danish pension fund AkademikerPension: directly blacklisted SpaceX for investment due to governance structure issues. Its chief investment officer said SpaceX's shareholding structure was "the most management-biased and extreme in the history of the US public market," with Musk having absolute voting rights and a lack of an independent director mechanism.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: The SEC, which publicly slammed the Trump administration, approved "pointless" IPOs, called on index providers to protect the investments of American households, and asked the SEC to ensure Musk doesn't cheat investors.
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