Goldman Sachs significantly raised its LME copper price forecast, with the target price rising to $13,735/t at the end of 2026 and the average price rising to $13,800 in 2027. The core drivers come from both ends: copper imports in the United States exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, and it is estimated that the annual inventory will accumulate to 900,000 tons, and the gap in the copper market "outside the United States" may reach 640,000 tons; At the same time, the resumption of production at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula copper mines has been postponed until 2028.
The United States rushed to import a large amount of copper before the tariffs landed, pushing the tension of the global copper market to a new level.
According to the news of Chasing Wind Trading Station, on June 1st,Goldman SachsThe commodities research team releases its latest copper market outlook, and analyst Aurelia Waltham willLME copper end-2026 target price was raised to $13,735/tonne from $12,465, and its 2027 average price forecast was raised to $13,800/tonne from $12,150.
The core logic is:The continuous large amount of copper imported by the United States is draining the available supply in markets "outside the United States", and the resumption of production in the two main mines is much slower than expected. The superposition of the two forces has pushed the copper market into a deeper gap than previously predicted.
At present, the copper price is about USD 13,600/ton, with an increase of about 10% during the year. Although it is lower than the all-time high of USD 14,153 set in mid-May, it is still at a high level. Analysts estimate,The supply gap in the "outside of the U.S." market will reach 640,000 tons in 2026 and 170,000 tons in 2027, compared with previous estimates of only 60,000 tons and 40,000 tons respectively.
The United States "hoards goods", and markets outside the United States are even more short of copper
Analysts raised their 2026 U.S. copper inventory accumulation forecast to 900,000 tonnes from 550,000 tonnes.
The logic is very direct: the market is worried that the United States may impose tariffs on copper, and importers stock up before the policy is implemented. Once this batch of copper enters the American warehouse, it will be "locked" and will no longer flow to international markets such as LME. The copper price in London thus reflects the price of the global surplus supply after it is further compressed.
The baseline scenario is that there will be no formal copper tariff announcements within 2026, but the import momentum is expected to continue,Because the expectation that "tariffs can come at any time" is sufficient in itself to drive continued stocking behavior.
According to the price data model, for every day of tightening of inventory (about 75 thousand tons) in the balance of supply and demand in the copper market, the copper price will increase by about 1.4%. Based on this calculation, the copper price support corresponding to the "outside the United States" gap itself in 2026/2027 is about $12,120/13,300. On this basis, the possibility of the United States and other countries starting strategic reserves is superimposed, contributing an additional price support of about 500 USD/ton, and finally the fair value in 2026 is about 12,600 USD and in 2027 is about 13,800 USD.
The current copper price of $13,600 is higher than the fair value in 2026. Analysts believe that this part of the premium comes from the inflow of speculative funds. Under the background of hard asset rotation, strategic needs such as energy security, AI infrastructure and national defense give copper stronger narrative support, and there is no clear trigger for speculative long liquidation in the short term.
Two mines drag down supply, and scrap copper fails to fill the gap
The core problem on the supply side this year lies in Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, two global-class copper mines.
Both mines have not been able to resume full production so far due to production accidents that occurred in 2025, and the latest judgment is that it will not return to normal levels until 2028.To that end, analysts have lowered their global mine supply forecast for 2026 by 350,000 tonnes, equivalent to about 1.5% of the total global mine supply.
Scrap copper could have served as a buffer, but this year the road wasn't smooth either. China's domestic copper scrap production fell 12% year-on-year in the first few months of this year.
Three scenarios, ranging from $12,600 to over $14,000
Scenario 1: Blockade of Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected
The baseline scenario assumes that the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation by the end of June. If the blockade lasts longer, the demand side will be impacted by the slowdown of global economic growth. Under seriously unfavorable scenarios, global economic growth will be impacted by 1.1 percentage points, corresponding to a reduction of about 300,000 tons of copper demand in 2026 compared with the February forecast. However, the supply side will also be impacted. The tight market for sulfur and sulfuric acid may affect copper production, of which about 125,000 tons of production in the DRC and about 200,000 tons of production in Chile are at risk.
The shocks at both ends of supply and demand roughly offset each other, and the fair value remains basically unchanged,However, if global risk appetite drops sharply and speculative funds are withdrawn, copper prices may fall to the support level of $12,600.
Scenario 2: US Announces Copper Tariffs From January 2027
If the tariff is announced in June and implemented in January, it will drive the U.S. import to accelerate sharply in the second half of 2026, and the LME copper price may exceed $14,000. But once the tariffs are implemented and imports come to an abrupt halt, prices will come under pressure in 2027 and are expected to fall back to about $13,900.
Scenario 3: U.S. explicitly announces no tariffs
Imports have pulled back sharply, with the "outside of the U.S." market turning to a small surplus of 130,000 tonnes in 2027, and copper prices are expected to fall to about $12,800, which is also the fair value estimate for 2027 under this scenario. However, analysts specifically pointed out that even if it is not added now, the tariff option will not completely disappear. Referring to the previous expression of key mineral tariffs, "if a satisfactory agreement is not reached, it may still be added in the future".
Demand Side: Power Grid and AI Hold Up Copper's Bottom
It is worth noting that,The demand structure of copper is changing, making it less sensitive to economic downturn.
Apparent copper demand in China remained up 1% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, maintaining positive growth as copper prices approached record highs – behind a 10% year-on-year increase in grid and power infrastructure demand, partially offsetting weaker PV and EV-related demand.
Calculations show that by 2030, the increase in copper demand contributed by power grid and power infrastructure will exceed 60% of the total increase. Driven by energy security, AI data center expansion and defense projects, this kind of demand is far less sensitive to the economic cycle than traditional copper-using fields such as buildings or home appliances, and more tolerant to high copper prices.
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