美股费城半导体指数七日跌幅一度逼近10%,抄底资金开始入场

华尔街见闻05-20

半导体股票的抛售已至历史上往往预示反弹的水平,吸引抄底买盘入场。

费城半导体指数(SOX)周二盘中一度下跌3.6%,七日累计跌幅扩大至近10%,创11月以来最大短期跌幅。不过该指数随后上涨收复早盘失地,截至收盘,SOX距近期高点下跌6.8%。

根据彭博数据,回顾过去一年的历史规律,每当SOX在短时出现同等或更大幅度的下跌后,随后通常呈现强劲的短期表现——5日平均涨幅为3%,一个月平均涨幅超过6%。5日维度的胜率40%,一个月维度胜率60%。

若将样本扩展至1994年以来的更长周期,结果相对温和,但方向依然偏正面:5日平均涨幅约为1.9%,一个月平均涨幅不足4%,两个时间维度的胜率均高于50%。

彭博指出,鉴于芯片制造商的盈利前景极为强劲,任何回调的幅度都很可能有限。

但美国国债收益率仍然居高不下,这压制了股票估值并削弱了其相对吸引力。随着利率波动加剧打破了跨资产的平静格局,股市可能还未真正企稳。

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