Dow Dives Into Correction As Chance Of Rate Hike Spikes: What Do Prediction Markets Think?

Benzinga_recent_news03-28 01:57

But the bigger story is in the rates market, where futures traders on Friday pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to 52% on the CME FedWatch tool, according to CNBC. It is the first ...

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It is the first ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51519154/dow-dives-into-correction-as-chance-of-rate-hike-spikes-what-do-prediction-markets-think\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Dives Into Correction As Chance Of Rate Hike Spikes: What Do Prediction Markets Think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Dives Into Correction As Chance Of Rate Hike Spikes: What Do Prediction Markets Think?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-28 01:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51519154/dow-dives-into-correction-as-chance-of-rate-hike-spikes-what-do-prediction-markets-think><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>But the bigger story is in the rates market, where futures traders on Friday pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to 52% on the CME FedWatch tool, according to CNBC. It is the first ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51519154/dow-dives-into-correction-as-chance-of-rate-hike-spikes-what-do-prediction-markets-think\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_TN","symbol_name":"超10年美债","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51519154/dow-dives-into-correction-as-chance-of-rate-hike-spikes-what-do-prediction-markets-think","article_id":"2622723158","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/27/Trump-Iran-War-affecting-mortgage-rate.png?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51519154/dow-dives-into-correction-as-chance-of-rate-hike-spikes-what-do-prediction-markets-think","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622723158","pubTimestamp":1774634220,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"As the Dow hits a correction, CME futures price in a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike. Discover why prediction markets like Polymarket aren't buying it yet.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","BK4588":"碎股","IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","KRX":"KBW区域银行业指数","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","XLF":"金融ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","DPST":"Direxion每日三倍做多区域银行股ETF","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"随着加息可能性飙升，道琼斯指数陷入回调：预测市场怎么看？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LQD":0.76,"SKRE":0.76,"BND":0.76,"SHV":0.76,"BOXX":0.76,"TMF":0.76,"UDN":0.76,"TNmain":0.6,"VGSH":0.76,"IAT":0.6,"MUB":0.76,"HYG":0.76,"VFH":0.6,"KBWB":0.6,"TLTW":0.76,"AGG":0.76,"ZBmain":0.6,"XLF":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"KRE":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"DPST":0.6,"VGIT":0.76,"IEI":0.6,"UUP":0.76,"ZTmain":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"KBE":0.76,"SHY":0.76,"BIL":0.76,"FAZ":0.76,"KRX":0.6},"content_text":"But the bigger story is in the rates market, where futures traders on Friday pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to 52% on the CME FedWatch tool, according to CNBC. It is the first time that number has crossed the 50% threshold. A month ago, those odds were at zero.\n      • Microsoft stock is showing weakness. Why are MSFT shares declining?\nOn Polymarket, a contract asking whether the Fed raises rates in 2026 is trading at 25% with $642,900 in volume. The contract spiked from around 8% at the start of March. On Kalshi, the chance is 27%. \nThis is still well below the 52% implied by CME futures, which are dominated by institutional desks hedging rate exposure. That gap may suggest the money on CME is hedging a tail risk that prediction market traders still consider unlikely.\nThe Fed released a paper earlier in the year showing that prediction markets have become very accurate at predicting Fed moves. \nThe Treasury sell-off is reinforcing the hike signal. The benchmark 10-year yield peaked at 4.48% Friday, its highest since July, while the 30-year pushed toward the psychologically significant 5% level. Traders are dumping long-duration bonds on expectations of higher inflation and increased government borrowing to fund the Iran campaign.\nThe OECD this week raised its U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, nearly double the Fed’s own 2.7% projection. Import prices posted their largest monthly jump since March 2022. Gas prices are up roughly 30% since the war began on Feb. 28.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that hikes are not the base case for the “vast majority” of Federal Open Market Committee members.\nVice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated Thursday that the energy shock alone may not warrant tightening. But Goldman Sachs has raised its recession probability to 30%, and Moody’s Analytics puts it near 50%.\nThe FOMC next meets April 28-29. CME futures show just a 6.2% chance of a hike at that meeting, which suggests the market sees this as a second-half story if it happens at all.\nImage created using artificial intelligence via ChatGPT\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622723158","isCrawlerRequest":true}