Robinhood's Sherwood News Asks Why Musk Hasn't Merged Tesla And SpaceX: Prediction Markets Give The Answer

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The piece, published today, lays out the case that Elon Musk’s empire is converging fast. Tesla poured $2 billion into xAI. SpaceX absorbed xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. Tesla then converted...

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Tesla poured $2 billion into xAI. SpaceX absorbed xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. Tesla then converted...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51391501/robinhoods-sherwood-news-asks-why-musk-hasnt-merged-tesla-and-spacex-prediction-markets-give-the-answer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HODU","symbol_name":"Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51391501/robinhoods-sherwood-news-asks-why-musk-hasnt-merged-tesla-and-spacex-prediction-markets-give-the-answer","article_id":"2621751116","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/20/Ross-Gerber-Takes-Aim-At-Elon-Musk--Urge.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51391501/robinhoods-sherwood-news-asks-why-musk-hasnt-merged-tesla-and-spacex-prediction-markets-give-the-answer","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621751116","pubTimestamp":1774037880,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Tesla and SpaceX are on track to merge, according to analysis. 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Tesla poured $2 billion into xAI. SpaceX absorbed xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. Tesla then converted its xAI shares into a SpaceX stake, per FTC filings dated March 11.\nChamath Palihapitiya doesn’t think SpaceX will go public at all. He thinks Musk will fold it into Tesla instead.\n“I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table,” he said on the All-In Podcast last month.\nDan Ives at Wedbush Securities agrees on the direction, writing in a February note that he expects “more cross-pollination between Tesla and SpaceX over the coming year” and that the two companies will eventually merge.\nPolymarket traders are skeptical. A contract on a Tesla-SpaceX merger prices it at just 10% by June 30. A separate contract on a SpaceX IPO by 2028 sits at 96%.\nThe gap may reflect Tesla’s fundamentals. Revenue fell 3% in 2025, its first annual decline on record. \nThe stock is down about 15% year to date, one of the worst Magnificent Seven performers. \nPolymarket’s Q1 deliveries contract has 65% odds on under 350,000 units, consistent with the bearish trend.\nIn other words, prediction market traders may be saying that SpaceX, with Starlink booming and a record IPO on deck, has more to lose than gain by tying itself to a shrinking car business.\nMusk owns about 42% of SpaceX versus 13% of Tesla. A stock deal would massively concentrate his control. \nA combined company would vault Tesla from roughly the 10th most valuable company in the world into the top tier. \nSpaceX is reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for its planned June IPO.\nPolymarket traders give 69% odds Musk becomes the first trillionaire before 2027. \nWhether SpaceX goes public or folds into Tesla could be the variable that determines how he gets there.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.37.0","shortVersion":"4.37.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2621751116","isCrawlerRequest":true}