By Olivia Beavers
WASHINGTON -- House Republicans are publicly projecting optimism about keeping their majority after the midterms. Privately, many acknowledge a harder reality: It's possible the GOP loses the House. And in that scenario, they say, the party might look to a new leader.
Losing the majority would open the door to fresh jockeying among senior Republicans to push aside current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) to lead the party in the minority, according to conversations with more than half a dozen House Republicans.
That scenario has put the spotlight back on Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. Those three lawmakers lost out in the chaotic party fight back in 2023 to succeed ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), when Johnson emerged as the compromise pick -- and are considered the potential front-runners again.
All three are building bridges with colleagues and raising money for candidates, members said. At the same time, the potential candidates are rejecting the idea that they are focused on anything but winning the midterms.
Republicans currently have a narrow 218-214 edge -- including an independent who caucuses with them -- and the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm since World War II, except for 1998 and 2002. And while former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) remained party leader after losing the majority in 2010, no modern Republican speaker has stayed atop the conference after the party fell into the minority.
"If there were a flip, do I think our current leadership team would stick around? I would never claim that," said longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas. Sessions added that he still isn't sold that the "cake is baked" in terms of how the election will swing.
A spokesman for Johnson, when asked for comment about plans to run for leader if the majority flips, didn't respond directly. Instead, in a statement, he said that the media was trying to "stir up division" and that it had underestimated Johnson from the get-go. He said House Republicans "are ignoring the noise and charging forward to a decisive victory in the midterms."
Here is a look at the three lawmakers seen as best positioned to succeed Johnson if Republicans lose the majority and look for a new leader, who would be chosen in a secret ballot.
Steve Scalise: A 'great fit'
Scalise has served over a decade in various House GOP leadership positions. The affable Louisiana Republican has bounced back after suffering life-threatening injuries from being shot at a congressional baseball practice in 2017 and receiving a blood cancer diagnosis in 2023. He has also led the party through policy battles, including working with Johnson to pass President Trump's tax-and-spending bill last year.
"Steve, he's waiting to be a speaker a long time...and his health was the difference last time. Next term is Steve's time, if it's his time," said retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke (R., Mont.), who noted that Scalise's health is better now. Zinke also said that Emmer and Jordan could also be in the running but argued that a Trump endorsement could keep Johnson in the top role even in the minority.
A Scalise spokeswoman said he "fully intends to continue his role in House Republican leadership." She said Scalise is "laser focused on growing our Republican majority."
Scalise raised a total of $35.5 million in 2025, putting $15.3 million toward Republican campaigns, according to a person familiar with the matter. He has boosted his mailing program and has held events around the country for members, in addition to giving $660,000 for other members of the conference so far this cycle.
If Republicans lose the majority and Johnson chooses not to try to stay on as minority leader, Scalise would be a "great fit for us," said Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R., Fla.).
Jim Jordan: Onetime party insurgent
Jordan's colleagues see increasing signs that he is preparing for a potential bid. Jordan, the only one out of the three who isn't currently in elected leadership, has boosted fundraising for the National Republican Congressional Committee, endorsed early in primaries and campaigned aggressively for incumbents. His is among the most sought-after endorsements in the House GOP because of his grassroots base.
Last month he donated roughly $350,000 to the NRCC during a party retreat, according to members familiar with the contribution. Jordan has transferred over $1.5 million to the House GOP campaign arm this year, according to a person familiar with the Jordan operation. He has also raised money for colleagues' campaigns.
During internal GOP debates over extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, Jordan pitched a short-term extension paired with changes to the program -- an effort some centrist members appreciated and saw as evidence that he was offering direction amid internal divisions over healthcare policy.
"I am not thinking about that," Jordan said when asked about leadership speculation. He said he is focused on the midterms.
A co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, Jordan built his reputation as a conservative insurgent. He challenged McCarthy for minority leader in 2018 before later aligning with him.
After McCarthy's removal in 2023 as speaker, Jordan's run exposed deep party rifts. Lawmakers who opposed him reported receiving threats, and some criticized Jordan for not forcefully denouncing the pressure campaign.
Rep. Eli Crane (R., Ariz.), a Freedom Caucus member who voted to oust McCarthy, said that if a new leadership race ensues and Jordan throws his name in the ring, "I think Jim would be definitely one of the top names." But Crane also gave a nod to Johnson. "I think everybody knows I'm critical of Mike Johnson, but I do think he's doing a pretty good job...with the majority that we have," he said.
Tom Emmer: Repairing Trump ties
Emmer, who previously served as the head of the House GOP campaign arm, was the third to seek the speakership after McCarthy's ouster. But his candidacy collapsed after Trump attacked him as a " globalist RINO," and evangelical conservatives raised concerns about his past support for a gay-marriage bill.
After that setback, Emmer worked quickly to repair his relationship with Trump and his allies, becoming far more vocal about his support of the president. Emmer is also active politically, raising nearly $30 million for the party through the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter. He has traveled to more than 150 cities this cycle and done events for dozens of candidates and members, this person said.
He called a possible run at minority leader "an absolutely ridiculous question." He said Republicans will hold the House in November and the "team remains focused on the mission."
Write to Olivia Beavers at Olivia.Beavers@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2026 10:48 ET (14:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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