AI一键点外卖、订机票…阿里千问要干大事！

华尔街见闻01-15

2026年1月15日，在阿里千问APP发布会前几个小时。华尔街见闻实测发现，在阿里旗下的千问App对话框里，用户已经可以直接点外卖、订机票、订酒店、找餐厅，甚至办理政务。没有复杂的跳转，没有眼花缭乱的弹窗，仅仅是一句自然语言指令，AI就完成了从意图识别到交易下单的全过程。阿里官方预告称这叫“开启办事时代”。昨日，阿里巴巴正式宣布1月15日10:00将召开千问APP发布会，见证AI如何“开启...

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and books air tickets with one click... Ali Qianwen wants to do big things!","themeId":"c56af495a9c8a1000d295fea81e3fe71","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.96,"BABA":1.96},"content_text":"2026年1月15日，在阿里千问APP发布会前几个小时。\n华尔街见闻实测发现，在阿里旗下的千问App对话框里，用户已经可以直接点外卖、订机票、订酒店、找餐厅，甚至办理政务。\n没有复杂的跳转，没有眼花缭乱的弹窗，仅仅是一句自然语言指令，AI就完成了从意图识别到交易下单的全过程。\n\n阿里官方预告称这叫“开启办事时代”。昨日，阿里巴巴正式宣布1月15日10:00将召开千问APP发布会，见证AI如何“开启办事时代”。\n\n而这并不仅仅是一句营销，更像是一场变革，其烈度不亚于当年乔布斯从口袋里掏出第一代iPhone。\n此时此刻，谷歌、OpenAI、亚马逊都在疯狂竞逐同一个目标——AI电商（Agentic Commerce）。这是一场旨在抢占下一代互联网“超级入口”的隐秘战争。当AI开始接管人类的钱包，互联网的流量逻辑、变现逻辑乃至生存逻辑，正在发生根本性的坍塌与重建。\n流量入口的“降维打击”——从“猜你喜欢”到“给你想要”\n电商行业的每一次代际更迭，本质上都是流量入口的变迁。\nPC时代，入口是搜索框（百度、谷歌）；移动时代，入口是App图标（淘宝、微信）。而在AI时代，入口正在坍塌为一个简单的对话框。\n1. 搜索框的消亡\n浙商证券的最新研报指出，AI与电商的结合正处于从“判别式推荐”向“生成式推荐（GR）”跨越的关键节点。\n回顾过去，我们习惯了“人找货”：在搜索框输入关键词，然后在一堆琳琅满目的商品列表中费力筛选。或者被动接受“货找人”：算法根据你的浏览记录，疯狂推送它觉得你可能喜欢的东西。\n但现在，千问App正在重新定义这一切。\n你不再需要在一个个App之间反复横跳比价。你只需要对千问说：“帮我订一张明天去北京的机票，要最早的一班”，或者“我想吃附近评分最高的轻食外卖”。AI会直接理解你的意图，调用后台数据，把最终的解决方案——甚至直接是支付按钮——送到你面前。\n\n2. 意图即交易\n这是一个极其恐怖的“降维打击”。\n一旦用户习惯了这种“所想即所得”的办事模式，传统的货架式电商、甚至App本身的存在感都将大幅削弱。\n摩根士丹利的研报曾预测，到2030年，Agent（智能体）式电商的交易额将达到3850亿美元，占美国电商总额的20%。这个数据的潜台词是：未来五分之一的钱，是AI替你花出去的。\n谁掌握了这个对话框，谁就掌握了用户消费决策的“第一公里”。\n从“连接”到“行动”——阿里生态的暴力打通\n根据华尔街见闻实测和浙商证券的分析，千问App的野心在于利用阿里集团庞大的生态资源。\n\n闪购： 解决“一句话点外卖”；\n飞猪： 解决“一句话订酒店、订机票”；\n高德地图： 解决出行与找餐厅；\n淘宝： 解决实物电商购买。\n\n这种打通不是简单的API调用，而是基于“Agent（智能体）”的深度整合。根据浙商证券研报指出，阿里正在用集团生态反哺千问App入口，千问Agent将彻底打通这些高频生活场景。\n这意味着，千问App不再是一个孤立的聊天机器人，它是整个阿里商业帝国的“总控台”。\n2. Qwen模型的底气\n而千问App背后的Qwen大模型，全球下载量已突破6亿次，性能甚至超越了GPT-5的部分指标。\n这不仅是算力的胜利，更是数据的胜利。与单纯的语言模型不同，千问背靠的是阿里多年积累的电商交易数据、物流数据和本地生活数据。这构成了阿里在AI C端竞争中独特的护城河。\n在反观其他竞争对手。\n对于字节跳动的豆包来说，虽然也接入了抖音商城，但在本地生活和复杂服务履约上，供应链的厚度仍有差距。 对于OpenAI来说，虽然它有最强的模型，但没有自己的电商和物流基础设施，只能通过与Etsy、Shopify等合作来补齐短板。\n而阿里，既有Qwen3-Max这样的顶级模型，又有淘宝、饿了么、高德这样不仅拥有海量数据、更能直接闭环交易的基础设施。正如晚点LatePost所言，阿里通过“千问”做了一个C端的超级入口，这是CEO吴泳铭的战略决断。\n变现的终极答案——从“卖广告”到“卖服务”\nAI商业化一直是困扰行业的难题。单纯靠订阅费（SaaS）很难覆盖高昂的算力成本。但一旦切入电商，商业模型瞬间清晰。\n1. 离钱最近的生意\n据招商证券和浙商证券的分析，AI的叙事逻辑正在从单纯的“对话”向“行动”发生转变。AI将直接整合多渠道信息，为用户提供最终的决策建议，甚至直接下单。\n当AI可以直接下单时，它的变现路径就变得极其短且粗：\n\n\n佣金模式（CPS）： AI推荐并成交一单外卖或机票，直接抽取佣金。\n\n\n意图广告： 品牌商不再购买关键词，而是竞价用户的“意图”。当用户问“推荐一款好用的洗面奶”时，谁的商品出现在回答里，谁就付费。\n\n\n这种模式的转化率远高于传统广告。数据显示，购物过程中使用亚马逊AI助手Rufus的顾客，购买转化率提升了60%。\n2. 产业链的狂欢\n这场盛宴不仅属于平台。\n浙商证券的报告提到，随着千问App在2026年1月14日MAU突破1亿，整个产业链都在躁动。\n\n\n代运营与营销： 像值得买（推出了“张大妈”AI App）、青木科技、壹网壹创这样的服务商，正在利用AI重构导购和运营流程。\n\n\nSaaS工具： 光云科技等公司正在将AI植入客服和订单管理系统，适配新的流量分发机制。\n\n\n这就像当年的淘金热，阿里在卖铲子（基础设施），而围绕在周边的服务商则在筛金沙。\n房间里的大象——巨头们的“生死时速”\n阿里并不是在这个赛道上唯一的奔跑者。全球科技巨头都在进行一场“抢椅子”的游戏，椅子只有一个，那就是“AI超级入口”。\n看海外：谷歌Gemini正在整合所有购物流程，OpenAI正在制定电商协议标准（ACP），亚马逊用Rufus死守护城河。 看国内：千问App打通外卖酒旅，字节豆包接入抖音商城，战火已经烧到了具体的交易环节。\n1. 亚马逊的闭环防御\n面对AI Agent的冲击，亚马逊选择了“闭源自研”。其推出的Rufus购物助手，依托自研芯片Trainium和Inferentia降低成本，通过封闭生态防止流量外流。2025年，Rufus月活用户同比增长了140%。亚马逊甚至诉诸法律，禁止外部AI（如Perplexity）抓取其数据，以此构建数据壁垒。\n2. OpenAI与谷歌的降维打击\nOpenAI并没有闲着。通过“购物搜索”功能和与Shopify、Etsy的合作，OpenAI试图在决策链的最前端截胡流量。数据显示，ChatGPT的月度采用率高达45%，远超传统零售商自研AI。\n3. 字节豆包的突围\n作为阿里的老对手，字节跳动的“豆包”也在发力。豆包手机助手试图通过系统级服务打通跨App操作。\n不过，在实际测试中，豆包在接入淘宝、闲鱼等阿里系应用时频繁遭遇“人机验证”或强制登出。\n这场发布会或是变革时刻\n把这些碎片拼凑起来，2026年1月15日的这场发布会，其意义已经超越了一个产品本身。\n对于市场而言，现在不是怀疑的时候，而是寻找那些能在这场“办事革命”中率先卡位的巨头和产业链新贵的时候。\n因为正如当年错过了移动互联网的人一样，错过AI电商，可能就真的错过了下一个十年。\n现在，请系好安全带，AI的“办事时代”已经呼啸而来。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603962961","isCrawlerRequest":true}