The two forces shaping stock markets are on a collision course. President Donald Trump's affordability drive threatens to overshadow artificial-intelligence this earnings season.
Trump has been an AI booster, promising to block cumbersome regulation and increase available energy. But late Monday he fired a warning shot, arguing technology companies must "pay their own way" amid rising electricity prices. Microsoft will be the first to make "major changes" according to the president -- which means Amazon.com, Google-parent Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are unlikely to be far behind.
It's a threat that was foreseeable. U.S. power demand in 2030 is set to be 25% higher than in 2023 largely due to data centers, according to consulting firm ICF. Most of that will have to come from the same grid that serves residential needs. Investors will have to wait for more details on Trump's proposals but it could mean AI companies taking on a chunk of a projected $1 trillion investment by utilities between 2025 and 2029.
In the short term, big tech stocks still look set to be winners. Consensus expectations for the so-called Magnificent Seven group of megacaps are for them to report 20% earnings growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with an average of 6% for the other 493 members of the S&P 500, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute. Alphabet in particular is on a roll, having just hit a $4 trillion valuation after striking a deal to power Apple's Siri digital assistant.
However, the gap between the AI leaders and the rest is set to shrink. For 2026 overall, the Mag Seven are projected to report 19% earnings growth compared with 15% for the rest of the S&P 500. If tech companies face additional energy costs, that could encourage more rotation into other sectors.
The AI boom has been supported by the White House's friendly stance so far. But Trump could quickly turn into a foe for the sector this year.
-- Adam Clark
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Alphabet Joins the $4 Trillion Club. It Is Working With Apple.
Google parent Alphabet has officially joined the club of companies with a market value of more than $4 trillion, sitting alongside Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. Pushing it higher came after Google formed an AI alliance with Apple in which the next generation of Apple models will be based on Google's Gemini.
-- Those models will help power future Apple Intelligence features,
including a more personalized voice-activated virtual assistant known as
Siri. The launch of the new Siri has been delayed until later this year.
-- Google's Gemini has reached more than 650 million monthly users, up from
450 million a few months ago, challenging start-up rivals such as OpenAI
and Anthropic. Gemini 3 is considered useful in a wider range of
applications, though OpenAI's chatbot is the most popular.
-- Apple has been trying to develop its own AI tools but Siri is seen as
falling behind capability-wise versus other chatbots. Expectations for a
collaboration between Alphabet and Apple have been growing since reports
surfaced last summer.
-- Separately Apple took a 20% market share of the global smartphone market
last year, according to Counterpoint Research data. That puts Apple in
the top spot, just ahead of South Korea's Samsung Electronics. Apple's
shipments rose 10% in 2025 from the previous year, the highest increase
among the top five brands.
What's Next: Counterpoint expects 2026 global smartphone shipments to shrink 2.1% because of rising memory costs driving up costs for manufacturers. Memory prices are expected to surge 40% to 50% this quarter. They can make up around 10% to 15% of the total cost of materials for a high-end smartphone.
-- Angela Palumbo and Adam Clark
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Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on Iran Trading Partners
President Donald Trump has weaponized international trade again. On Monday he said he would impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran -- such as China -- as the administration tries to exert pressure on Tehran after hundreds of protesters have been killed in a two-week uprising.
-- Trump's tariff threat, made over his social-media platform Truth Social,
comes a day after the president said Iran was "starting to" cross red
lines, noting reports of civilian deaths, and he warned the U.S. was
weighing "very strong" options.
-- Trump told reporters over the weekend that a meeting with Tehran was
being set up after Iran indicated it was willing to enter discussions
over its yearslong nuclear program.
-- The U.S. capture of Venezuela's leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this
month is raising questions about whether the Trump administration will
make further bold military moves elsewhere in the world -- including in
Iran.
What's Next: While the U.S. could target military or Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. sites, that seems unlikely for now as a move could create major ripples through the Middle East and in energy markets.
-- Reshma Kapadia
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How the DOJ's Powell Investigation Could Backfire
The Justice Department's criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew criticism in the Senate, strengthened Powell's position, and complicated the transition to his successor. It's unlikely the investigation produces a resolution that could force Powell out quickly, plus it casts a shadow over the confirmation of his replacement.
-- Republicans have a 13-to-11 majority on the Senate Banking Committee,
which must approve any Fed chair nominee. Committee member and Republican
Sen. Thom Tillis opposes any Fed nominations until the Powell legal
matter is resolved. If Democrats vote together, that is enough to stall a
nominee.
-- Senate floor math also offers little cushion. Republicans control the
chamber 53-to-47. If all Democrats oppose a nominee, four Republican
defections would block confirmation. Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa
Murkowski called the Powell investigation coercive and backed Tillis's
pledge to block Fed nominees.
-- By tradition, the chair of the Board of Governors, currently Powell, also
leads the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates. But
that isn't required by law. The Federal Reserve Act allows the FOMC to
elect its own chair each year. Members could nominate someone else on the
board to lead the group.
-- Powell could stay after his term as chair ends in May because his term as
governor goes to 2028, despite the precedent set by his recent
predecessors. While prediction market Kalshi had 84% odds on Powell
leaving the Fed completely by August 2026 on Sunday, it was 55% by
Monday.
What's Next: Former Fed chairs, Treasury secretaries, and White House economic advisors from both parties had a warning on Monday. In a joint statement, they said using prosecutorial pressure against a central bank is common in countries with weak institutions and poor inflation outcomes. Credibility, once damaged, is difficult to restore.
-- Nicole Goodkind
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Meta Needs AI Capital. Now It Has Its Own Banker.
Meta Platforms isn't slowing its artificial intelligence buildout soon, bringing on Wall Street veteran and first Trump administration official Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman, a new role. She will be a vital link in Meta Compute, which aims to work with governments to build out AI infrastructure.
-- Meta spent about $70 billion last year on AI data centers, raising about
$40 billion through debt since 2024. Last year, the Facebook parent
entered into a $27 billion joint venture to fund its massive Louisiana
data center complex. It owns 20% of the joint venture.
-- McCormick, an Egyptian immigrant who came to the U.S. as a child, worked
in national security roles in the George W. Bush and Donald Trump
administrations, spent 16 years at Goldman Sachs, and was most recently
president and vice chairman of merchant bank BDT & MSD Partners.
-- Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said her global finance experience and deep
relationships worldwide make her uniquely suited to help Meta manage
initiatives like Meta Compute, which oversees its data centers and
suppliers. It is co-run by Meta's head of global infrastructure Santosh
Janardhan and Daniel Gross.
-- Meta is speeding up its spending on frontier AI, building data centers
and developing the energy capacity to power them. Zuckerberg said in a
social media post that the company is planning to build tens of gigawatts
this decade and hundreds over time.
What's Next: Meta has 20-year agreements to buy power from three Vistra nuclear plants in the U.S. as tech companies lock down long-term power resources for their data centers. Hiring its own banker with international relations experience may indicate that Meta is charging ahead with its AI capital plans.
-- Adam Levine and Janet H. Cho
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Paramount Skydance Isn't Giving Up Its Fight for Warner
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January 13, 2026 06:35 ET (11:35 GMT)
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