So what happened to the rally?
Wall Street appeared to have all the pieces in place for its traditional advance in December heading into the final trading days of the year, powered in part by a Federal Reserve rate cut, slumping global energy prices, steady performance for the market's biggest tech stocks, and data suggesting a resilient domestic economy.
But the clock is ticking. With just eight full trading days between now and the end of the year, both the S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite are in negative territory for the month, and showing little signs of a breakout that would deliver a so-called Santa Claus rally for U.S. stocks.
"December is indeed historically one of the stronger months of the year, with gains more than 73% of the time," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, who noted that most of the benchmark's 1.4% average December gains since 1950 were booked over the second half of the month.
"No month is more likely to be higher and when 2025 is said and done, we think the S&P 500 has a good chance of seeing gains in the second half of this month," he added.
Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG Research, also reminded that the actual period for the Santa Claus rally, which typically defines December's market performance, has yet to arrive.
"It doesn't officially start until Dec. 24 this year ... and it's specifically defined as the last five days of this year and the first two of the new year," he said.
"As the saying goes, 'If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall'," Krinsky added. "As we are still a week away, it's premature to say Santa has failed to call."
He could be waiting to sift through this week's busy slate of economic data, which included a murky reading on the state of the labor market, an uncertain assessment of consumer spending, and a solid but slowing survey of activity in the services sector.
A key reading on inflation, including data on price pressures over October and November, will arrive Thursday. A hot report could slash bets on Fed rate cuts into next year, while a tame assessment could pave the way for more policy easing and trigger a late December comeback for the stock market.
"The economy is catching its breath," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston.
"Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but not sprinting," she added. "This combination gives the Fed more freedom to pivot without panic -- and gives investors a reason to lean into quality, income, and long-term themes rather than short-term noise."
Investors are definitely in agreement; Bank of America's closely tracked survey of global fund managers suggested some of the most optimistic positioning in stocks in more than three years, with year-ahead expectations for corporate profits the highest since 2021.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, also noted that U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the fourth year of a bull market, which in this case began in October 2022, with an average annual gain of 12.8%.
"We believe this bull market should keep running, as most do at this stage, with support from the AI and rate-cutting cycles," he said. "But given rich valuations, a lot must go right for stocks to enjoy another strong year like 2025."
"Still, our best advice is to stay invested in equities at target weights and wait for corrections before considering raising equities exposure to overweight," he cautioned. "That opportunity could come soon."
Whether Santa and his rally arrive before that is likely the market's biggest concern over the next two weeks.
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