Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab shares have made starkly opposite moves this year. But a Cantor Fitzgerald analyst thinks both are underappreciated - and primed for big rallies next year.
Analyst Andres Sheppard wrote Wednesday that he's "very bullish" on Intuitive Machines, a space-exploration company whose stock has fallen nearly in half this year. His $16 price target implies room to rise 70% from current levels.
The stock is still recovering after tumbling in March due to problems with a lunar landing. The company's uncrewed lander, nicknamed Athena, successfully reached the moon, but fell on its side and was unable to recharge. The lander was expected to operate for about 10 days, but was declared dead just a day after it landed.
He pointed to a handful of potential positive catalysts for Intuitive Machines (LUNR), which plans to complete its $800 million acquisition of satellite manufacturer Lanteris Space Systems in early 2026. The combined company is expected to have a contracted backlog of $920 million, nearly three-quarters of which is attributable to Lanteris.
"Following the close of the acquisition, we expect [Intuitive Machines] to be ... capable of designing, manufacturing, delivering and operating missions from Earth to the Moon and beyond," Sheppard said in the note.
The Houston-based company could also benefit from a handful of pending government contracts. It's one of three companies that proposed bids on NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle contract, which has a combined maximum potential value of $4.6 billion, although the initial award is worth between $600 million and $800 million.
Intuitive Machines is also bidding for a contract for a NASA project focused on delivering payloads to the moon's orbit and surface. The company's IM-3 mission, set for a launch in the second half of next year, will carry four payloads for NASA as part of that project.
As for Rocket Lab (RKLB), the launch provider is fresh from reporting revenue of $155 million for the third quarter, its highest on record. The Long Beach, Calif.-based company has completed more launches than any other public firm and had a roughly $1.1 billion backlog as of the third quarter.
Sheppard gave the stock an overweight rating, with a price target of $72 per share - implying nearly 70% upside from its current price of around $43. The stock has staged a 67% rally so far in 2025.
Like Intuitive Machines, Rocket Lab could also benefit from government contracts.
The company is currently working to complete a $515 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency and is bidding on another project for the agency worth up to $900 million, Sheppard said. A recent acquisition may also set Rocket Lab up for a slice of the Golden Dome initiative, he added.
There is also the eventual first flight of the Neutron reusable rocket, which is now set for a first-quarter launch. Earlier in the year, Rocket Lab had hoped to debut the medium-lift rocket by the end of 2025.
"Our aim is to make it to orbit on the first try," CEO Peter Beck said on the company's third-quarter earnings call in November. " At the end of the day, Neutron will fly when we're very confident that's ready."
Neutron is the "only viable alternative" to SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket that dominates the launch industry, according to Sheppard. Rocket Lab is on pace to break its annual launch record with the Electron vehicle, which serves the small-satellite launch market.
The company is a "leader in the aerospace industry," with current prices representing "a good entry point for investors," Sheppard added.
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