乌克兰战争如果爆发，对市场意味着什么？

华尔街见闻2022-02-13

在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与...

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Comments

蓝白红黑的间条衫
2022-02-14
蓝白红黑的间条衫
華爾街見聞已經不止是美股鬧餐黑子了……👽👽👽
Samboon
2022-02-14
Samboon
哇
AdelineLing
2022-02-13
AdelineLing
留意
OCEAN
2022-02-13
OCEAN
什麼叫在美國煽動下？
- 拉基A钴:
  因为俄罗斯吃不起战争饭，不可能打。倒是美国把一堆美军拉过去吓唬俄罗斯
- QiC:
  害，这不是华尔街见闻换了东家以后在努力向环球时报转型嘛。你要看了他们的付费评论，会更觉得无语。
TSone
2022-02-13
TSone
大家要關注這則新聞
yong168
2022-02-13
yong168
💣

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美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":631259259,"gmtCreate":1644804456717,"gmtModify":1676532714218,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546057439648684","authorIdStr":"3546057439648684"},"htmlText":"華爾街見聞已經不止是美股鬧餐黑子了……👽👽👽","listText":"華爾街見聞已經不止是美股鬧餐黑子了……👽👽👽","text":"華爾街見聞已經不止是美股鬧餐黑子了……👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/631259259","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9095081823,"gmtCreate":1644771695952,"gmtModify":1676533960082,"author":{"id":"4095431615509740","authorId":"4095431615509740","name":"Samboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809a3a44ba75d0f8646c3af15ece1263","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095431615509740","authorIdStr":"4095431615509740"},"htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095081823","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092723071,"gmtCreate":1644734621444,"gmtModify":1676533957935,"author":{"id":"3586607851629362","authorId":"3586607851629362","name":"AdelineLing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586607851629362","authorIdStr":"3586607851629362"},"htmlText":"留意","listText":"留意","text":"留意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092723071","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":631205441,"gmtCreate":1644732225200,"gmtModify":1676532712406,"author":{"id":"3505875658168836","authorId":"3505875658168836","name":"OCEAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41ea07cf1536b287b2eeefe748e3342","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505875658168836","authorIdStr":"3505875658168836"},"htmlText":"什麼叫在美國煽動下？","listText":"什麼叫在美國煽動下？","text":"什麼叫在美國煽動下？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/631205441","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7243162,"gmtCreate":1644743385017,"gmtModify":1663239795726,"authorId":3567831542238723,"author":{"id":3567831542238723,"idStr":"3567831542238723","authorId":3567831542238723,"name":"拉基A钴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":631205441,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"因为俄罗斯吃不起战争饭，不可能打。倒是美国把一堆美军拉过去吓唬俄罗斯","text":"因为俄罗斯吃不起战争饭，不可能打。倒是美国把一堆美军拉过去吓唬俄罗斯","html":"因为俄罗斯吃不起战争饭，不可能打。倒是美国把一堆美军拉过去吓唬俄罗斯"},{"id":7243499,"gmtCreate":1644761682118,"gmtModify":1663239791933,"authorId":3477404475145045,"author":{"id":3477404475145045,"idStr":"3477404475145045","authorId":3477404475145045,"name":"QiC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":631205441,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"害，这不是华尔街见闻换了东家以后在努力向环球时报转型嘛。你要看了他们的付费评论，会更觉得无语。","text":"害，这不是华尔街见闻换了东家以后在努力向环球时报转型嘛。你要看了他们的付费评论，会更觉得无语。","html":"害，这不是华尔街见闻换了东家以后在努力向环球时报转型嘛。你要看了他们的付费评论，会更觉得无语。"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092717362,"gmtCreate":1644729017862,"gmtModify":1676533957427,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"htmlText":"大家要關注這則新聞","listText":"大家要關注這則新聞","text":"大家要關注這則新聞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092717362","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092790211,"gmtCreate":1644722894294,"gmtModify":1676533956693,"author":{"id":"3570966674623757","authorId":"3570966674623757","name":"yong168","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570966674623757","authorIdStr":"3570966674623757"},"htmlText":"💣","listText":"💣","text":"💣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092790211","repostId":2210311521,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210311521","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210311521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210311521","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"战争无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧全球供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升，并转化为更大的通胀上行压力，导致各国央行将不得不更激进地踩刹车。\n","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will the war in Ukraine mean for markets if it breaks out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Instigated by the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. In Washington's view, war is \"on the verge of breaking out.\" If the smoke ignites, how much waves will it cause in the capital market?</p><p>The overnight market has launched a preview. Under the \"war atmosphere\" exaggerated by the United States, the sell-off of risky assets intensified, oil prices hit a seven-and-a-half-year high, safe-haven assets surged, gold hit a three-month high of $1,860, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell sharply by 11 basis points. Less than 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a02f29c17f61f46a37686df173b95c9\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On February 10, Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to \"leave immediately,\" saying \"things could get crazy very quickly.\" On February 11, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken echoed Biden, claiming that we are currently in a \"window period for invasion to occur at any time.\" \"The current situation is that Russia may invade Ukraine at any time, including possibly during the Olympics.\" U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours.</p><p>However, Russia's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused Western countries and media of spreading a \"massive disinformation campaign\" promoting the argument that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.</p><p>Biden and Putin will hold an emergency conference call on Saturday in light of rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Analysts believe that in the context of high global inflation, this war crisis will undoubtedly trigger a butterfly effect, further exacerbate the supply crisis, and lead to a spiral in commodity prices such as raw materials and energy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts wrote in a note recently, \"Markets have become increasingly tense in the past few weeks. Given the significant risks that conflicts may pose to commodity supplies, further escalation or potential disruptions to exports could drive energy, metals and agricultural prices rose further.\"</p><p>Rising food prices combined with higher oil prices will translate into greater upward pressure on inflation, and central banks are likely to take stricter policy actions, which could take a toll on the global economy still recovering from the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Crude oil is afraid of \"adding fuel to the fire\"?</h2>With the global crude oil supply tightening and the idle production capacity of most oil-producing countries almost exhausted, once the Western sanctions lead to any interruption of Russian oil, it will \"add fuel to the fire\" for the already strong oil price.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that JPMorgan Chase economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman recently pointed out in a research report that the escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have another impact on crude oil supply, causing oil prices to \"substantial\" this quarter. surge \":</p><p>Global crude oil supply may shrink by 2.3 million barrels per day, quickly pushing oil prices to US $150 per barrel, which will double the average price in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they predict that once oil prices soar, global GDP growth may slide to 0.9% in the first half of this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.1%. In addition, the global inflation level will soar from the originally expected 3% to 7.2%.</p><p>The impact on the global economy is so great that some analysts believe that Western sanctions may \"show mercy\" to avoid disturbing Russian crude oil supply. At the same time, there are also some optimistic views that Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East may fill the supply vacancy.</p><p>However, the International Energy Agency IEA predicts that the shortage of OPEC + supply may push oil prices to the highest level since 2014. By the end of this year, the gap between OPEC + 's expected production and actual delivery may be as high as 1 billion barrels, while OECD crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level in seven years.</p><p>Previously, OPEC's latest monthly report confirmed that daily production increased by only 64,000 barrels in January instead of the planned 250,000 barrels, and it was worried that world oil demand may rise even more sharply this year amid a strong economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.</p><p><h2>Food prices fly out of a black swan?</h2>Since last year, global food prices have continued to rise due to factors such as reduced fertilizer production and rising prices, and the persistence of La Niña phenomenon. The market is already worried about whether food prices will be the black swan of prices in 2022. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, food prices may usher in greater upside risks.</p><p>Ukraine and Russia, the global trade center of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, will cause a chain reaction around the world if the supply is disrupted, further rising food prices, which are already at the highest level in 10 years.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, in the two months before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, international wheat prices rose by more than 20%.</p><p>Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of global production and 20% of international exports. Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter with a 10% share. Ukraine's share of corn exports also exceeds 10%, and the country also controls a large amount of sunflower oil and barley production and export.</p><p>Russia's agricultural regions are concentrated in the southwest, near the Ukrainian border, while Ukrainian wheat and corn cultivation is mainly in the central and southern parts. If the conflict breaks out, it may destroy the agricultural production belts of the two countries and affect global grain shipments from Black Sea ports. In addition, the West may impose sanctions on Russia and restrict grain exports.</p><p>Currently, the price of the near-term contract for corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is currently hovering around $6.20 a bushel, up more than 10% from a year earlier. Wheat futures on the same exchange rose 20% to about $7.60 a bushel.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Russia is also one of the world's three largest exporters of fertilizers, and any cuts in supply could cause already high agricultural production costs to soar, affect corn production, and lead to further food inflation.</p><p><h2>Natural gas and raw materials cannot escape the impact?</h2>So far, the European natural gas market has been most affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>If the West imposes tougher sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe will be an economic trump card played by Moscow.</p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently: \"If the geopolitical cloud over Europe becomes a reality, it will definitely have an impact on energy prices.\" Lagarde believes that economic growth will also be affected, and investment will be delayed because income and consumption may decrease.</p><p>Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and nearly one-third of its crude oil imports come from Russia.</p><p>Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that in the event of a conflict, gas prices \"could easily return to their (December 2021) peak of 180 euros per megawatt hour\".</p><p>Russia is also a major commodity exporter. Once Western sanctions are imposed on Russia, they may cause huge waves in commodity markets, ripping through various markets where the country is a major exporter, including aluminum, nickel, copper and platinum.</p><p>At a time when global manufacturing is already facing severe shortages of metals ranging from aluminum to zinc, even a brief supply disruption could have a dramatic impact.</p><p>Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium supply, and the impact on the palladium market is likely to be particularly severe. Russia's dominance in base metals has weakened, but it remains one of the major global suppliers. JPMorgan estimates that Russia accounts for about 4-6% of the world's copper, aluminum and nickel refining production.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. sanctions on Rusal caused turmoil in the aluminum market. Still, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to want to risk repeating the same mistakes, according to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., cited by Bloomberg.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651752","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210311521","content_text":"在美国煽动下，俄乌局势再升级，在华盛顿看来，战争“一触即发”，硝烟如果燃起，会在资本市场掀起多大波澜？隔夜市场已经展开了一场预演。在美国渲染的“战争气氛”下，风险资产抛售加剧，油价刷新七年半高位，避险资产大涨，黄金触及1860美元的三个月新高，10年期美债收益率大幅下行11个基点失守2%。2月10日，拜登敦促在乌克兰的美国人“立即离开”，称“情况可能很快变得疯狂”。2月11日，美国国务卿布林肯与拜登遥相呼应，声称目前正处于“入侵随时发生的窗口期”，“当前的情况是，俄罗斯可能随时入侵乌克兰，包括可能在奥运会期间。” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文同时敦促美国公民应在未来24小时至48小时内离开乌克兰。不过，俄罗斯外交部周五指责西方国家和媒体正在传播一场“大规模的虚假宣传运动”，宣传俄罗斯即将入侵乌克兰的论点。鉴于乌克兰东部局势日趋紧张的情况，拜登和普京将于周六举行紧急电话会议。分析认为，在全球通胀高企的背景下，这场战争危机无疑会引发蝴蝶效应，进一步加剧供应危机，导致原材料和能源等大宗商品价格螺旋上升。摩根大通分析师近日在一份报告中写道，“过去几周，市场变得越来越紧张。鉴于冲突可能对大宗商品供应构成的重大风险，局势进一步升级或出口潜在中断，可能会推动能源、金属和农业价格进一步上涨。”不断上涨的食品价格叠加油价上涨，将转化为更大的通胀上行压力，各国央行可能会采取更严格的政策行动，这可能会对仍在从疫情中复苏的全球经济造成损害。原油恐“火上再浇油”？在全球原油供应趋紧，大多数产油国的闲置产能已经几近耗尽的现状下，一旦西方实施制裁导致俄罗斯的石油出现任何中断，这对于已经十分强势油价来说都将是“火上浇油”。华尔街见闻此前提及，摩根大通经济学家Joseph Lupton和Bruce Kasman近日在研报中指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治紧张局势的升级，可能会对原油供给再度造成冲击，致使油价在本季度出现“实质性飙升”：全球原油供给每天或将收缩230万桶，从而将油价迅速推高至150美元/桶，和2021年四季度的平均价格相比将翻一倍。并且他们预计，一旦油价飙涨，今年上半年全球GDP增速或将滑落至0.9%，而此前预计增速为4.1%。此外全球通胀水平也会从原本预计的3%飙升至7.2%。对全球经济的影响如此之大，以至于也有一些分析认为，西方制裁或会“手下留情”，避免扰动俄罗斯原油供应，同时也有一些乐观的看法认为，沙特和中东其他一些国家可能会填补供应空缺。然而，国际能源署IEA预计，OPEC+供应不足或将油价推高至2014年来最高，今年底OPEC+预计产量与实际交付的缺口可能高达10亿桶，同时经合组织原油库存降至七年最低。此前OPEC最新月报证实，1月日产量仅增加6.4万桶，而非计划的25万桶，且担心在后疫情时代经济强劲复苏的情况下，今年世界石油需求可能会更加急剧上升。粮价飞出黑天鹅？去年以来，受化肥减产和价格上涨、拉尼娜现象持续等因素影响，全球粮价持续上涨。市场已经在担忧粮价会否是2022年物价的黑天鹅，一旦俄乌局势恶化，粮价或将迎来更大的上行风险。乌克兰和俄罗斯作为全球小麦、玉米和葵花籽油的贸易重心，如果供应中断，将在全球引起连锁反应，使已经处于10年来最高水平的食品价格进一步上涨。以史为鉴，在俄罗斯总统普京2014年3月宣布吞并克里米亚半岛之前的两个月里，国际小麦价格上涨了20%以上。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦出口国，占全球产量的10%，国际出口的20%。乌克兰是第五大出口国，占有10%的份额。乌克兰的玉米出口份额也超过了10%，该国同时还控制着大量葵花籽油和大麦生产和出口。俄罗斯的农业区集中在西南部，靠近乌克兰边境，而乌克兰的小麦和玉米种植主要在中部和南部。如果冲突一旦爆发，可能会破坏两国农业生产地带，并影响从黑海港口的全球粮食运输。此外，西方可能会对俄罗斯实施制裁，限制粮食出口。目前，芝加哥期货交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)的玉米期货近期合约价格目前徘徊在每蒲式耳6.20美元左右，较上年同期上涨逾10%。同一交易所的小麦期货价格上涨20%，约为每蒲式耳7.60美元。值得一提的是，俄罗斯也是全球三大化肥的最大出口国之一，供应的任何削减都可能导致本已高企的农业生产成本飙升，影响玉米产量，并导致进一步的食品通胀。天然气和原材料难逃冲击？迄今为止，受俄乌冲突最大影响的是欧洲天然气市场。如果在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，西方对其实施更严厉的制裁，那么切断对欧洲的天然气供应，将是莫斯科打出的一张经济王牌。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日表示：“欧洲上空的地缘政治阴云如果成为现实，肯定会对能源价格产生影响。”拉加德认为，经济增长也会受到影响，由于收入和消费可能减少，投资会被延迟。俄罗斯是欧盟最大的能源供应国。欧盟约40%的天然气进口和近三分之一的原油进口来自俄罗斯。英国《金融时报》援引Capital Economics首席欧洲经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示，在发生冲突的情况下，天然气价格“可能很容易恢复(2021年12月)每兆瓦时180欧元的峰值”。俄罗斯也是主要的大宗商品出口国。一旦西方对俄罗斯实施的制裁，可能会在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，波及该国作为主要出口国的各个市场，包括铝、镍、铜和铂。在全球制造业已经面临从铝到锌等各种金属的严重短缺之际，即使是短暂的供应中断也可能产生巨大影响。俄罗斯占全球钯供应量的40%左右，对钯市场的影响可能尤其严重。俄罗斯在贱金属方面的主导地位有所减弱，但仍是全球主要的供应国之一。摩根大通估计，俄罗斯的铜、铝和镍精炼产量约占全球的4-6%。2018年，美国对俄罗斯铝业联合公司的制裁引发了铝市场的动荡。不过，据彭博援引包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等银行表示，美国政策制定者不太可能希望冒险重蹈覆辙。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.6,"ZCmain":0.9,"JPM":0.84,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"HGmain":0.77,"ZWmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":164,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2210311521","isCrawlerRequest":true}