As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, security risks in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy artery—have risen significantly, pushing up the central price of international crude oil, delaying interest rate cuts by major central banks, and putting pressure on global stock markets. Amid this turmoil, what impact will the A-share market face? Which sectors are worth investing in this year? According to the latest analyses from multiple securities firms, the market's reaction to the U.S.-Iran conflict has evolved from short-term "panic trading" to pricing in the medium- to long-term effects of high oil prices on the economy and policy, reflecting "stagflation expectations." Despite ongoing external shocks, the upward trend of A-shares remains intact. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, transitioning from the first stage of gains to range-bound fluctuations, building momentum for a comprehensive second-stage rally. In terms of allocation, high-growth technology and cyclical alpha opportunities have emerged as the two consensus themes among institutions. Investors can consider two approaches at this juncture: first, identifying sectors where prices can move in tandem with oil prices and whose performance may benefit from rising oil costs; second, seeking out sectors with independent growth drivers that are less affected by higher oil prices.
Concerns over global "stagflation" are mounting, yet A-shares demonstrate resilience. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts directly impacts global risk appetite. Similar to historical patterns, during the initial phase of this conflict, markets quickly priced in rising commodity prices and safe-haven demand, leading to simultaneous gains in crude oil, gold, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasuries, while major global stock indices generally faced pressure. However, as the situation has reached a stalemate, markets are beginning to recognize that high oil prices may persist longer, leading to a significant shift in trading logic. Xingzheng Securities pointed out that two key changes are occurring in market pricing dynamics: first, the focus has shifted from the "intensity of conflict" to the "volatility of negotiations"; second, markets are starting to price in the impact of high oil prices on economic conditions and policy directions. If oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, global inflationary pressures will increase, tightening monetary policy expectations and fundamentally altering the logic of asset price movements. Against this backdrop, the policy certainty advantage of the A-share market becomes prominent. Xingzheng Securities believes that with China's current consumer prices still low and policy interest rates at historically relatively low levels, there is higher tolerance for imported inflation from rising oil prices and greater room for policy adjustments. Domestic policies are likely to maintain a "steady growth" stance, ensuring reasonably ample liquidity, which will serve as core support for A-shares' resilience amid external shocks.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities also emphasized that the impact of shifting relative strengths among nations on asset pricing is gradually becoming apparent. China is no longer a passive recipient of imported inflation; it has demonstrated stronger proactive responses and external adaptability in geopolitical games. A-shares are adapting to this environment, with pricing based on medium- to long-term "competitive landscape" considerations underway, naturally fostering resilience. The consolidation phase does not alter the medium-term upward trajectory; the second-stage rally may begin in the second half of 2026. Despite short-term external disruptions, securities firms' research reports express optimism about the medium-term outlook for A-shares. Shenwan Hongyuan maintains its "two-stage rally" forecast, noting that A-shares are currently in the high range of the first-stage gains, gradually transitioning to range-bound fluctuations, which is precisely the phase building momentum for a comprehensive second-stage rally. During this consolidation period, the adjustment幅度 may be limited, but the duration could extend over quarters. Shenwan Hongyuan analysis indicates that historical experience shows a fluctuation period is usually needed between the first and second stages of rallies to digest valuation and relative value issues. Currently, the overall valuation of A-shares is at historically high levels, limiting room for discovering new directions, and market characteristics of "emphasizing reality over narratives" have emerged. Regarding the timing of the second-stage rally, Shenwan Hongyuan provided a clear prediction: a new round of gains may start in the second half of 2026 and extend into the first half of 2027. This rally will be driven by the共振 of non-linear fundamental improvements and accelerated inflows of incremental funds. Fundamentally, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit excluding non-recurring items for all A-shares is expected to reach 12.9% in 2026, showing a quarterly upward trend. From a liquidity perspective, the wealth effect of household asset allocation shifts is at a critical point; once a new round of wealth effect emerges, fund inflows will accelerate again.
Chentong Securities also believes that from both fundamental and liquidity perspectives, the medium-term upward trend of A-shares remains unchanged. Even under different scenarios of conflict, structural opportunities in A-shares will remain prominent, with the key lying in capturing the受益 chains of oil price transmission and independent growth directions. Focus on two main themes: "High-Growth Technology" and "Cyclical Alpha" equally. In the face of complex geopolitical conditions, research reports generally indicate that investment opportunities in 2026 will feature "clear themes and structural differentiation." Long-term investment requires abandoning the mindset of "broad-based gains" and focusing on high-growth sectors and quality stocks. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, the logic of price increases has become a market consensus. Shenwan Hongyuan explicitly stated that two types of inflation assets in the current era—new economy and strategic resources—constitute the main sources of growth investing. Under great power competition, the security and controllability of strategic resources are essential. Rising mining costs, incremental demand from the new economy, a weak U.S. dollar, and great power strategies for resource security jointly support the revaluation logic of resource products. CITIC Securities review pointed out that industries whose own prices or profits are expected to move in tandem with rising oil prices will be important clues in the "price increase chain" in the coming period. Historical data show that industries with high positive correlation with oil prices are mainly concentrated in non-ferrous metals, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, chemicals, steel, machinery, new energy, agriculture, etc. Among these, rising oil prices directly boost profits in upstream sectors like crude oil extraction, oilfield services equipment, and oil shipping, while coal, coal chemical, and new energy sectors will also benefit from energy substitution logic.
In the technology growth sector, the long-term logic of the AI industry chain remains clear, but investment focus is extending and shifting along the产业链. CITIC Securities believes that AI and advanced manufacturing, supported by industrial trends and policies, are less affected by oil prices in terms of fundamentals. After short-term集中 pricing of geopolitical risk discounts, these sectors may反而 benefit from independent growth, becoming relatively advantaged in a geopolitically risky environment. Since the beginning of the year, segments with持续 upward revisions in profit forecasts are mainly concentrated in AI hardware and advanced manufacturing. Shenwan Hongyuan suggested that during the consolidation phase, high-elasticity investment opportunities still primarily come from extensions of main-theme assets and expansions of macro narratives. In terms of main-theme asset extensions, investors should continue to explore new细分 opportunities in the AI industry chain and cyclical alpha. Following the industrial线索 from the "first-stage rally (AI hardware) to the second-stage rally (AI applications)," current "reality-focused" attention should be on inflationary segments in hardware like optical modules and PCBs, as well as the accelerated penetration of燃气 engines into global supply chains. Subsequently, shifting towards the application端, focus on "shovel sellers" in applications (cloud computing, edge devices, robotics) and opportunities for domestic AI chains to catch up from behind.
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