SpaceX closed at $148.68, up 0.44%.
SpaceX shares edged higher, but the dominant large options trades told a different story. A $4.22 million short call block and a $2.30 million put purchase both leaned bearish, pointing to institutional caution. With long-dated structures and out-of-the-money strikes, the bulk-order flow suggests skepticism toward upside follow-through and a preference for hedging or positioning for medium- to long-term weakness in SpaceX.
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Options Indicators
SpaceX currently has an implied volatility of 51.00%, and its IV percentile stands at 66.82%, which places current volatility conditions in a broadly neutral range rather than an outright elevated one. With the IV/HV ratio at 1.16, implied volatility is running modestly above historical volatility, suggesting options are carrying a slight premium versus realized movement, but not to an extreme degree. Overall, SpaceX options appear fairly priced to slightly rich, rather than distinctly cheap or aggressively expensive.
The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.53.
Large Trades
A call sale worth $4.22 million was the largest displayed block, with 4,305 contracts sold at the 165.0 strike expiring on 2027-01-15. With the stock reference price at $148.68, this call sits out of the money, making it a bearish to capped-upside positioning that is typically consistent with premium collection or a view that SPCX is unlikely to rally beyond that strike by expiration. The trade’s large size and short-call structure suggest a willingness to lean against upside, reflecting restrained expectations for a major advance.
A put purchase worth $2.30 million was the other key displayed trade, consisting of 2,000 contracts bought at the 145.0 strike expiring on 2026-12-18. With SPCX at $148.68, the put is out of the money, so this is a clearly bearish position that offers downside exposure if the shares weaken below the strike over time, while also serving as portfolio protection against a larger drawdown. Taken together, the bulk-order flow points to a clear bearish bias in SPCX, as the dominant large trades were both downside-leaning and concentrated in long-dated structures, indicating institutional caution, skepticism toward upside follow-through, and a preference for either hedging or positioning for medium- to long-term weakness.
Strategy Reference
For a low assignment probability, a short call seller could consider the 175.0 strike, which is further out of the money than the displayed 165.0 block and leaves more room before the short call is tested; alternatively, a bear put spread using the 145.0 and 125.0 strikes expiring on 2026-12-18 may express downside exposure while requiring less margin than a standalone long put.
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