Option Focus | SpaceX’s $4.22 Million Call Sale and $2.30 Million Put Buy Reveal Institutional Bearish Bias Despite Modest IV Premium

Option Witch09-26 07:00

SpaceX closed at $148.68, up 0.44%.

SpaceX shares edged higher, but the dominant large options trades told a different story. A $4.22 million short call block and a $2.30 million put purchase both leaned bearish, pointing to institutional caution. With long-dated structures and out-of-the-money strikes, the bulk-order flow suggests skepticism toward upside follow-through and a preference for hedging or positioning for medium- to long-term weakness in SpaceX.

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Options Indicators

SpaceX currently has an implied volatility of 51.00%, and its IV percentile stands at 66.82%, which places current volatility conditions in a broadly neutral range rather than an outright elevated one. With the IV/HV ratio at 1.16, implied volatility is running modestly above historical volatility, suggesting options are carrying a slight premium versus realized movement, but not to an extreme degree. Overall, SpaceX options appear fairly priced to slightly rich, rather than distinctly cheap or aggressively expensive.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.53.

Large Trades

A call sale worth $4.22 million was the largest displayed block, with 4,305 contracts sold at the 165.0 strike expiring on 2027-01-15. With the stock reference price at $148.68, this call sits out of the money, making it a bearish to capped-upside positioning that is typically consistent with premium collection or a view that SPCX is unlikely to rally beyond that strike by expiration. The trade’s large size and short-call structure suggest a willingness to lean against upside, reflecting restrained expectations for a major advance.

A put purchase worth $2.30 million was the other key displayed trade, consisting of 2,000 contracts bought at the 145.0 strike expiring on 2026-12-18. With SPCX at $148.68, the put is out of the money, so this is a clearly bearish position that offers downside exposure if the shares weaken below the strike over time, while also serving as portfolio protection against a larger drawdown. Taken together, the bulk-order flow points to a clear bearish bias in SPCX, as the dominant large trades were both downside-leaning and concentrated in long-dated structures, indicating institutional caution, skepticism toward upside follow-through, and a preference for either hedging or positioning for medium- to long-term weakness.

Strategy Reference

For a low assignment probability, a short call seller could consider the 175.0 strike, which is further out of the money than the displayed 165.0 block and leaves more room before the short call is tested; alternatively, a bear put spread using the 145.0 and 125.0 strikes expiring on 2026-12-18 may express downside exposure while requiring less margin than a standalone long put.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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