Market Analysis
On the geopolitical front, on September 28 local time, U.S. President Trump said that U.S. officials had spoken with mediators seeking to end the U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier reports said the United States and Iran were expected to hold another round of talks through mediators on September 28 or 29. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators are currently in the United States, and the talks are expected to focus on revising Iran's proposal, raised during the United Nations General Assembly, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. U.S. officials disclosed that Trump is willing to offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete progress" on the nuclear agreement.
On the Federal Reserve side, Fed Governor Cook said that future productivity gains from artificial intelligence may not be enough to offset recent price pressures, warning that this trend could push up inflation across the economy. The Fed's rate hike this month was aimed at addressing persistently elevated inflation, and she stressed that future policy will depend on economic data.
Futures Market and Trading Volume
On 2026-09-28, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 918.94 yuan/gram and closed at 904.66 yuan/gram, a change of -2.17% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 lots, and open interest was 129,725 lots. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 901.04 yuan/gram and closed at 897.72 yuan/gram, down 0.77% from yesterday's afternoon close.
On 2026-09-28, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 15,212.00 yuan/kg and closed at 14,936.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 89,383 lots, and open interest was 58,638 lots. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 14,998 yuan/kg and closed at 14,930 yuan/kg, down 0.37% from yesterday's afternoon close.
U.S. Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring
On 2026-09-28, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17%, a change of -0.01% from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.36%, a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day.
Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume
On 2026-09-28, on the Au2612 contract, long positions changed by 72 lots from the previous day, while short positions changed by -137 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts in the previous trading day was 261,036 lots, a change of 19.16% from the previous trading day. In Shanghai silver, on the Ag2612 contract, long positions changed by -44 lots and short positions changed by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts in the previous trading day was 420,843 lots, a change of 3.25% from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking
In precious metals ETFs, yesterday's gold ETF holdings were 1,058.832 tons, an increase of 4.277 tons from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 15,364.64 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking
Futures-spot price spread: On 2026-09-28, in terms of the domestic premium, yesterday's domestic gold premium was -5.70 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -57.01 yuan/kg. Gold-silver ratio: yesterday the price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts was about 60.57, a change of 1.88% from the previous trading day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 66.00, a change of -1.40% from the previous trading day.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring
In the previous trading day (2026-09-28), the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold trading volume was 32,618 kg, a change of -4.73% from the previous trading day. Silver trading volume was 421,580 kg, a change of 40.99% from the previous trading day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and silver delivery volume was 47,580 kg.
Strategy
Gold: Neutral. At present, some market risk sentiment has emerged, and demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. Therefore, gold prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with the Au2612 contract's trading range likely between 880 yuan/gram and 910 yuan/gram.
Silver: Neutral. At present, the logic for silver is similar to that for gold, and its price is also expected to remain range-bound, with the Ag2612 contract's trading range likely between 14,500 yuan/kg and 15,500 yuan/kg.
Arbitrage: Temporarily suspended
Options: Temporarily suspended
Risks: Overseas liquidity risk; speculative positions continuing to exit
Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289
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