United Airlines Falls After UBS Pulls Bull Rating on Capacity, Asia Concerns

Seeking Alpha2022-04-18

UBS cut its rating on United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) to Neutral from Buy on what it calls visible headwinds on the cost side of the ledger.

The firm said it sees less compelling upside following the modest year-to-date rally against a tough market backdrop.

Analyst Myles Walton: "Although we see strong pricing in 2Q and beyond, the operational picture could be less smooth for UAL as they adapt to an aggressive growth strategy. UAL's scheduled capacity growth profile continues to get trimmed into 2Q, which will weigh on estimates of CASM ex and put significant doubts on the targeted gains (9% pre-tax margins) into 2023 that were laid out in the company's United Next plan last summer."

Walton also warned that United Next is particularly dependent on an aggressive fleet renewal plan over the next several years, but the aircraft OEM performance against planned delivery objectives looks increasingly at risk. That slower capacity expansion is seen putting pressure on costs per available seat mile, although it will also push out the company's elevated capex plan.

Finally, UAL was noted to be historically more overweight the Asia-Pacific region than peers, which continues to see the slowest capacity recovery to 2019 levels amid ongoing COVID issues.

Shares of UAL fell 1.62% in premarket trading on Monday amid some selling pressure across the travel sector linked to new COVID deaths in Shanghai.

UBS kept the price target on UAL at $51 vs. the average analyst PT of $54.20 and 52-week trading range of $30.54 to $60.59.

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