Bond traders have stopped fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as declining oil prices reinforce optimism about the inflation outlook.
U.S. Treasury bonds rose, with yields across maturities falling up to 9 basis points. The 30-year Treasury yield dropped 8 basis points ahead of a new auction on Thursday. However, the issuance yield is still expected to be the highest for that maturity since 2001.
Since the U.S. attacked Iran in late February, triggering supply disruptions, benchmark oil prices have been a key driver of Treasury yields. On Thursday, oil fell more than 3% as traders interpreted various signals from the conflict, further boosting expectations that U.S. inflation has peaked.
Data from the U.S. government on Thursday showed that producer price growth slowed in July. This followed a consumer price report on Wednesday that showed inflation cooling for a second consecutive month.
Short-term interest rate contracts rose, indicating that traders are reducing their bets on a Fed rate hike.
The implied probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting has fallen below 40%. The December contract, which earlier this week had fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike, now shows a tightening of about 23 basis points.
Comments