Pre-market market movements.
1. On Wednesday, November 4, before the US market open, all three major US stock index futures were trading higher. As of press time, Dow futures were up 1.55%, S&P 500 index futures were up 1.13%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.97%.
2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 1.36%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 1.16%, France's CAC 40 was up 1.49%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 1.85%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 0.78% at $95.34 per barrel; Brent crude was down 1.18% at $102.38 per barrel.
Market News
Democrats retake Congress in midterm elections, "blue wave" boosts risk appetite, US stock futures stage deep V-shaped reversal into positive territory. According to reports, Democrats outperformed Republicans in the US midterm elections and are expected to reclaim control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, with multiple media outlets describing the situation as a "blue wave" or even a "blue tsunami." Driven by the clarity of election results and expectations that the era of a "divided Congress" is ending, all three major US stock index futures staged a deep V-shaped intraday reversal, turning from losses to gains. Analysts believe that the reshaping of congressional power dynamics could weaken the Trump administration's policy maneuvering space, and reduced post-election uncertainty is conducive to sidelined capital flowing back into risk assets, though expectations of tax increases and tighter regulation are also weighing on certain sectors.
The US Treasury will release its quarterly refunding announcement at 21:30 Beijing time. The key focus of this quarterly refunding announcement lies in the issuance scale of medium- and long-term Treasury bonds and future guidance. The market widely expects coupon-bearing debt auction sizes to remain unchanged in the near term, but investors are watching whether the Treasury signals a reduction in 20-year and 30-year bond issuance in 2027. If long-term bond supply decreases, it could help ease upward pressure on long-end yields; if the Treasury continues to rely on short-term debt financing, it could push up short-end yields and increase volatility in the US Treasury yield curve structure. The related impact also depends on fiscal financing needs and investors' absorption capacity.
Spot gold returns above $4,000, silver surges over 4%, as safe-haven buying and dollar fluctuations converge. On Wednesday, London spot gold rose 2.62% and London spot silver rose 4.22%, with spot gold reclaiming the $4,000 level it had lost the previous trading day. Gold prices had fallen in the prior session due to optimistic expectations around US-Iran negotiations and cooling safe-haven demand, but staged a strong rebound today amid election uncertainty, dollar fluctuations, and lingering Middle East geopolitical tensions; silver showed greater elasticity, rising over 4% in a single day. The market is focused on upcoming US employment and services sector data to gauge the direction of real interest rates and precious metals going forward.
Trump: Democrats will submit crazy bills, and I will veto them. According to reports, US President Trump has begun sending warnings to Democrats in the form of a bright red hat bearing a single word: "VETO." As Democrats seek to regain control of Congress, Trump is signaling that he intends to use one of the president's most powerful tools—vetoing legislation he opposes. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said: "They'll submit some ridiculous bills, and I'll veto them." He expects that repeatedly exercising veto power could eventually force Democrats back to the negotiating table. However, Trump indicated that contact between the two sides may have already begun. He revealed that several Democrats have reached out to him since the election ended.
Under Democratic victory expectations, funds bet on clean energy stock rebound, options trading volume surges. As prediction markets bet that Democrats will achieve a major victory in Tuesday's US midterm elections, traders are directing funds toward a group of stocks typically categorized as beneficiaries of a left-leaning governing environment, including clean energy stocks. According to Cboe LiveVol data, options trading volume in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) surged to 40 times normal levels on Tuesday. The fund typically traded fewer than 500 options contracts per day over the past month, but by midday Tuesday, volume had exceeded 20,000 contracts, with 99% being call options.
US-Iran situation marginally eases but Hormuz risk persists: Trump says no strike plans for now, Iran says 4 tankers hit mines. On November 3 local time, Trump stated that the US currently has no plans for an immediate military strike on Iran but is prepared if necessary; Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed that 4 "violating" tankers triggered mines and caught fire while crossing the southern prohibited zone of the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran diplomatic channels remain in contact, with Qatari mediators saying both sides are reviewing the latest proposal. As a result, international oil prices fluctuated slightly.
October DRAM prices hit another record high; institutions say Q4 price increases will continue. In October of this year, global DRAM contract average prices once again set a new all-time high, while NAND flash average prices continued at last month's highest level. Institutions expect that in Q4 of this year, DRAM prices are expected to rise quarter-over-quarter, while for NAND flash, MLC flash and SLC flash price trends will diverge.
Individual Stock News
AMD (AMD.US) Q3 revenue hits record with 45% growth, data center nearly doubles, pre-market up over 6%. AMD released its fiscal 2026 Q3 results after market close on November 3: revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year, a single-quarter record, beating expectations of $13.09 billion; adjusted EPS of $2.09 beat expectations of $1.95. By segment, data center revenue was $8.55 billion, up 97% year-over-year, accounting for 64% of total revenue (versus 47% a year earlier), with an operating margin of 34%; client and gaming revenue was $3.7 billion, down 8% year-over-year (gaming down 40%), while embedded rose 29%. The company expects Q4 revenue of approximately $17 billion (±3%), above expectations of $16.3 billion, with gross margin guidance of about 55%. CEO Lisa Su said server revenue will double in 2027 and 80% of next year's sales will come from data center chips; shares rose as much as 9% after hours and were up over 6% as of press time.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) Q1 revenue nearly triples to $19.9 billion, far exceeding expectations, pre-market up over 9%. Super Micro Computer released its fiscal 2027 Q1 results after market close on November 3: revenue of $19.9 billion, up approximately 3x year-over-year, far exceeding expectations of $16.4 billion; adjusted EPS of $1.81, well above expectations of $1.23. Benefiting from surging AI server demand, the company raised its Q2 revenue guidance to $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion (above expectations of $17.1 billion), and lifted its full fiscal year 2027 revenue outlook from $65 billion to $72 billion up to $72 billion to $82 billion. However, both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were only about 12.8%, and profitability remains a key focus going forward; the company had previously drawn attention over financial reporting and accounting issues and last month appointed former Western Digital executive Mark Long as CFO; pre-market shares rose over 9%.
Qualcomm (QCOM.US) to report earnings after market close tonight, with weak smartphones and Apple (AAPL.US) share loss weighing on expectations. Qualcomm will release its fiscal 2026 Q4 results after the US market close on November 4, with Wall Street expecting revenue of approximately $10.14 billion (down about 10% year-over-year) and EPS of about $2.16 (down about 28% year-over-year, versus $3.00 a year earlier). Pressure comes from weak smartphone demand, accelerated replacement by Apple's in-house modem leading to related revenue loss, and rising wafer/memory/packaging costs squeezing gross margins; the company also recently announced global layoffs. Also reporting the same morning are Arm (ARM.US), AppLovin (APP.US), and Coherent (COHR.US), with the divergence between AI and end-demand set to face concentrated scrutiny, and the market focused on management guidance for Q1 and fiscal 2027.
Tesla (TSLA.US) pre-market down over 4%, pressured by Republican election loss and Korean FSD complaint. Tesla fell pre-market, significantly underperforming most large-cap tech stocks. There are two direct catalysts: first, multiple US media outlets predict Democrats will retake Congress and Republicans will lose, raising market concerns that Musk (the largest individual donor in this election, having contributed $445 million) could face political "retribution"; although Trump stated he "will protect Musk," risk-aversion sentiment still weighed on his Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX.US) (pre-market down over 4%); second, reports say an advocacy group filed a complaint with regulators over FSD assisted driving being unable to be legally used in South Korea, misleading tens of thousands of consumers. Short-term political and regulatory variables are amplifying stock price volatility.
Meta (META.US) plans to issue $20-25 billion in bonds, continuing the tech giant debt financing wave. According to reports, Meta has launched a new bond offering, planning to raise a total of $20 billion to $25 billion in the US and Europe, with dollar-denominated debt accounting for approximately $15 billion, marking its first dollar bond issuance in six months. Against a backdrop of elevated interest rates and surging AI capital expenditures, large tech companies clearly intend to lock in long-term low-interest liabilities to support computing power and data center investments; several giants have previously supplemented their ammunition through bond issuance. Analysts believe that while this alleviates short-term funding pressure, it also increases future interest burdens, and the combination of high leverage and high valuations could amplify sector volatility.
Google (GOOGL.US) plans to invest $15 billion to expand Malaysia data center business. Google said it plans to invest $15 billion to expand its data center and cloud computing operations in Malaysia to meet digital infrastructure demand driven by the AI boom. According to a statement released by the company on Wednesday, Google will build new computing centers and invest in local water resource security, power generation, and skills training for Malaysian residents. The related investment plans will be implemented during 2027 to 2028.
Texas governor election results elevate data center risk, US data center operators and cloud computing concept stocks fall pre-market. Applied Digital (APLD.US) fell 2.36% pre-market, Core Scientific (CORZ.US) dropped 2.95%, IREN (IREN.US) declined 2.58%, TeraWulf (WULF.US) slipped 0.37%, Coreweave (CRWV.US) fell 2.42%, and Oracle (ORCL.US) dropped 1.74%. According to reports, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa is expected to win the Texas governor's race in the midterms. Texas is expected to account for about one-quarter of new US data center capacity through 2030, and Hinojosa supports pausing data center project construction, potentially putting 13.3 gigawatts of already-announced projects in the area at risk.
Apple warns: AI agent behavior may be unpredictable, could trigger lawsuits and damage company reputation. Apple said in its annual financial filing on Tuesday that artificial intelligence (AI) agents capable of acting in "unexpected or unpredictable ways" could pose a threat to its business by exposing the company to litigation or damaging its reputation. The new risk factors listed in Apple's filing reportedly highlight the disruptive potential of AI agents, which have rapidly become a matter of intense focus for major Silicon Valley companies.
Key Economic Data and Events Preview
Beijing time 21:15: US October ADP employment figures. Beijing time 21:30: US September trade balance, Canada September trade balance, US Treasury releases quarterly refunding announcement. Beijing time 23:00: US October ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Beijing time 23:30: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 30.
Earnings Preview
Thursday morning: Arm, Qualcomm, AppLovin, Coherent. Thursday pre-market: Toyota (TM.US), Sony (SONY.US), ConocoPhillips (COP.US).
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